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NASASpaceflight reports that SpaceX wants to begin Starship’s orbital launch attempts as early as July 1, 2021, in less than four months.
In no uncertain terms, this is a target, which means it’s far more likely than not that SpaceX’s first orbital spacecraft launch attempt habit arrive in July. Nonetheless, the existence of the target implies that SpaceX sees a real and viable path – however narrow it may be – to launch Starship into orbit for the first time in just four months.
In other words, SpaceX believes it has six months of leeway to pass the preliminary Super Heavy booster tests (possibly including one or more jumps), qualify an improved ship design (from SN15), complete at roughly an orbital launch complex and deliver about two dozen orbit-capable Raptor engines by the end of the year. While unclear, it’s also possible that the milestone will force SpaceX to qualify and ship the first airworthy Raptor Vacuum engines – another major challenge.
On its own, accomplishing one of these major feats of engineering would be impressive. Completing them all simultaneously – even if the effort is more than five months late – would be nothing short of extraordinary. As such, it’s fair to assume that SpaceX will be well short of its incredibly ambitious development schedule, even if the company almost always does what it sets out to do.
In this case, that means there is a very real chance that Starship will reach orbit before the end of 2021, achieving a goal that SpaceX CEO Elon Musk and COO / Chairman Gwynne Shotwell have reiterated in recent past. month.
Even after reaching orbit for the first time, SpaceX will likely continue the development of Starship largely unchanged, treating the orbital regime as just another sandbox for testing and refining Starship prototypes. Considering all of the extraordinary issues SpaceX will need to solve to reach orbit, there’s also a good chance that Starship or Super Heavy’s first attempt at orbital launch will fail. If the launch is initially successful, it’s just as likely that Super Heavy will fail on its first attempt at hypersonic launch and landing.
If Starship itself reaches orbit in one piece, there are a number of issues that could kill the vehicle in space. If it survives long enough to complete a 90-minute orbit and line up for re-entry, descent, and landing, Starship’s first orbital-speed atmospheric reentry – one of aerospace engineering’s greatest challenges – could easily destroy the spaceship. If Starship somehow makes it through reentry on its first attempt, the stress of orbital spaceflight and that reentry could prevent its Raptor engines from nominally functioning during its powered rollover maneuver and landing.
All of this to say that even though SpaceX is focused on orbital flight, the trajectory is still the continuation of an ongoing test program and iterative development process. While spacecraft capable of operating in orbit will likely be much more expensive than their suborbital brethren, the differences are small enough that SpaceX will no doubt continue to push the boundaries and risk losing prototypes to discover and fix bugs and problems. design flaws as soon as possible.
Along the way, there will undoubtedly be more SN8 / SN9 / SN10 style hiccups. Given Starship’s development history, however, it looks like nothing short of a disaster will stop SpaceX from launching Starship into orbit before the end of the year.
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