Special elections in North Carolina and wild and baseless claims of Donald Trump



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A look at the numbers suggests that it is globally correct. As Bishop struggled in the more suburban areas of the 9th arrondissement, he cleaned up in more rural areas – areas where Trump's appeal remains as strong (if not stronger) than in his first election in 2016.

But this is not really in Trump 's DNA. He must always brown the lily. Place the extra cherry on the other cherry on the sundae. Which brings me to this tweet Tuesday night of Trump:

"Dan Bishop was down 17 points 3 weeks ago, so he asked me for help, we changed his strategy together and he ran a great race, Big Rally last night. now seems like he's going to win. @CNN & @ MSNBC is relocating his great studio gear and his talent. Stay tuned! "

He repeated this statement – with slight adjustments – Wednesday afternoon.

"The media thought he was going to lose," Trump said of Bishop. "I worked very hard with him, he caught up to 17 points in two weeks."

Which is not true! Or at least that's not true based on all public information.

Start here: there were very few quality surveys done in this race. After a long search on the Internet, I found six polls in the race – from May to earlier this month. McCready's biggest lead in ANY ONE poll, was four points. (McCready led three races, Bishop led two and one showed the race was tied.)

There was no public data – two weeks, three weeks, or any time ago – that indicated Bishop was behind McCready by 17 points or less. Could there be a private poll showing that Trump had been revealed but had never been made public and that showed so far behind Bishop? It's possible, I guess. But if that were the case, would Trump not request the publication of this poll if the second person questioned his request? And the answer to that question is of course that he would do it.

Then Trump asserted that he had helped Bishop "change strategy" to remedy this deficit of 17 points which, remember, never existed.

Asked about the specific strategy change recommended by Trump to Bishop, responsible for Trump's 2020 campaign Brad Parscale said that Wednesday: "You have to ask the president how he changed the strategy."

Riiiiiiiiight. This corresponds to the classic "President's tweet speaks for itself" response from Trump's allies. Parscale is not going to talk about the strategy change recommended by Trump because – and I'm going to reveal a little secret here – there's been no change in strategy.

Yes, they are stupid things to exaggerate and deceive about it. Because, as I said above, no one doubts that Trump's trip to North Carolina on Monday helped Bishop win.

But Trump can not be fair a part of a victory for which, in figures, the Republicans would not have had to fight so hard. He must be the hero from a race that everyone supposedly called invincible a few weeks ago. In his new statements, Trump screamed to the rescue, preserving a seat for the Republicans and putting it under the nose of the media.

This is just not what happened. But that fits well with Trump's broader approach to politics: he tells himself a story of his life and the world around him in which he is the smartest and the greatest winner and always, always, always the hero. He does not care if this story is consistent with the facts.

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