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The NFL betting markets are generally extremely efficient this time of year when it comes to sides and totals, so the larger edges are usually found in player props.
Here are the four props I see the biggest advantage on for the Conference Championship slate along with the spreads and totals I’m betting on. I might end up being on some extra props before kickoff, so if you’re looking for more action, be sure to follow me in the Action Network app.
Editor’s note: Bills-Chiefs’ picks were shot above Bucs-Packers.
Invoices +3; Over 54
I backed the Chiefs -6 in their eventual 26-16 win over the Bills in Week 6, but I don’t expect that result to repeat from one side or from a total perspective.
Overall, the Bills are now the best team in every sense of the word, but record high: They are No.4 in Football Outsiders overall DVOA, while the Chiefs are sixth. The gap widens when we only look at the weighted DVOA (which weighs more heavily against felt games), as Buffalo is No.1 while Kansas City remains No.6. The Chiefs have a small advantage over the Bills in Weighted DVOA in attack (third vs Fifth), but the Bills have considerable advantages in defense (eighth against 24th) and special teams (second against 11th).
More importantly, the Chiefs struggle mightily with situational football.
The Chiefs are last in defense in terms of Red Zone and Red Zone DVOA conversion rates, while the Bills rank 13th and ninth. The Chiefs also finished last in short on both sides of the ball, which is an advantage you don’t want to give to the Bills, who don’t put much emphasis on running on either side of the ball but have been. good in short distance defense (seventh) and respectable in attack (17th). And while both teams are in the top five in the DVOA in third / fourth offense, the Bills are also in the top five in defense while the Chiefs are ranked 19th.
In the end, it’s Kansas City’s defensive pullback that is most concerning: they finished sixth in the DVOA pass in the first half of the season but 29th in the second half. And while the defense was well-organized to defend a Browns offense starring slot catcher Jarvis Landry as its biggest threat, the Chiefs could battle the Bills’ deeper receiving body.
The Chiefs played Tyrann Mathieu in deep safety much more in the second half of the season in place of struggling Juan Thornhill, but used Mathieu closer to the line of scrimmage and in the slot against Landry on the week. last. Mathieu gave up -4 yards on six targets with a pick overall, and Landry finished with 20 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. But the Kansas City corner-backs allowed a catch on 15 of 18 targets for 153 yards and a touchdown.
Chiefs’ defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has done a good job asking them to help them all season – they’ve given wide receivers the second fewest yards in the regular season – mostly using two-depth shells . But if he plays the Man of Two Depths, he puts himself at risk from running Josh Allen, and the Bills can use wide foursome looks to sculpt the Chiefs into vertical seams if they let go. their corner-backs near the line and play two. -Deep area.
On the other side of the ball, Buffalo only blitzed Mahomes once on 34 losses (2.9%) in that opener. And despite his toe injury, the Bills will likely use a similar game plan rather than the blitz-heavy approach they used against the Ravens (30.0%). Buffalo went from 16th place in defensive DVOA in the first half of the season to seventh in the second period thanks to some schematic changes made possible mainly by the return of linebacker Matt Milano, who did not play. due to an injury in the week 6 game.
While I wouldn’t expect Buffalo to have enough success to keep this game under the total based on defense, the Bills are now able to get a key save or two that can keep them going. from keystroke distance to win what should be a draw game that should clear the total. I like the most 55 points.
Darrel Williams under 36.5 rushing yards (-105)
Williams received 13 of 15 backfield litters with Clyde Edwards-Helaire last week, but Edwards-Helaire is expected to return this week and averages a 69% share of the backfield reaches when active (at the exclusion from week 13, when he was active but did not play due to injury).
The Chiefs are averaging 19.5 runs per game this season, which means the most likely outcome for Williams is 5-8 runs. He’s averaging 4.3 yards per carry this season and 3.8 for his career, so his yardage tally is likely to overtake in the mid-1930s, barring another injury from Edwards-Helaire.
You can bet this line on FanDuel as of writing.
Limit: Less than 35.5 (-120)
Devin Singletary on 40.5 Rush Yards (-115)
In 14 games without Zack Moss (outside, knee), the Bills running backs are averaging 80.1 rushing yards per game with a median of 75.5. Singletary played 85.7% of the shots and handled 81.8% of the backfield runs last week, bringing his true projected median of 60 yards closer.
The market is slightly overweight Buffalo’s 10.5 backfield average in that playoff series, but that pitted against two top-12 defenses in DVOA for the Colts (ninth) and Ravens (12th), as the Chiefs rank 31st.
This is available at FanDuel from Sunday afternoon.
Limit: Over 49.5 (-120)
Buccaneers +3.5; Over 51.5
Can the Packers beat a team by more than a basket that crushed them, 38-10, in Week 6? Maybe, but I’m willing to pay to find out.
The Bucs are the best team in terms of Football Outsiders ‘overall DVOA, and they are in the top five in attack and defense, leaving the Packers’ 17th defense as the weakest unit in this game (apart from special teams , which are both low-10).
The Bucs have shown their ability to limit the Packers’ offense, keeping them at their lowest point total (10) and total yardage production of the season (201). Key by cornerback Carlton Davis, Tampa Bay also held up better against No. 1 wide receivers (sixth in DVOA) than even the Divisional Round opponent of Green Bay (Los Angeles, 13th in DVOA). The Bucs proved their mettle by holding Michael Thomas without a catcher on four targets and 28 passing routes last week, while Adams posted a 9/66/1 line on 10 targets and 33 routes against Jalen Ramsey and Co.
While the Bucs’ defense is capable of doing what the Rams couldn’t, the most compelling reason the Bucs can stay close in this game is their offense. The Packers were ranked No.1 in offensive scoring during the regular season (31.8 per game) and scored 30 or more points in 13 of 17 games, so the Bucs’ ability to rack up points (30 , 8 per game, third) will be crucial.
Green Bay also tends to start fast, leading the NFL in first-half scoring (18.7 per game), but Tampa Bay is the league’s second-highest second-half offense (15.4 per game). ).
Even without Antonio Brown (out, knee), the Bucs have enough pass-catching weapons to force Packers’ defensive coordinator Mike Pettine to keep additional defensive backs on the pitch. It’s his favorite plan, but it wasn’t always the case against the Rams last week (or the Titans in the Packers’ impressive 40-14 win). That should open the Tampa Bay running game, which recorded 35 carries for 127 yards and one touchdown against the New Orleans second defense last week.
On the other hand, the Bucs won’t be able to play as much of a press man as they did against the opposing throwing arm of Drew Brees. They will need to return to their signature zone blitz program with more coverage, so the defense is unlikely to produce another four 20-point allowable turnovers like they did against the Saints. The Packers torched a somewhat similar Rams schedule (albeit with less blitz) for 507 yards and 32 points last week, so overall there should be no shortage of points in this game. despite the cold weather at Lambeau Field.
For the reasons stated above, I like Bucs and the over here. While the regular season game winners have gone 55-39 in playoff rematch since 2002, I don’t think Tampa Bay will be able to win on defense this time around. However, the Saints have been the only team all year to beat the Bucs by more than one basket all season, and only nine of Tom Brady’s 43 playoff starts (20.9%) ended with a loss of more than three points by his team. Meanwhile, Rodgers came out with a three-plus win in just 11 of 20 playoff starts (55.0%), and for what it’s worth, has lost his last three conference championships by an average score of 36.3-21.0 (although none came to Lambeau).
Limits: Buccaneers +3; Over 53.5
Equanimeous St. Brown under 1.5 receptions (-215)
St. Brown has caught more than one assist in a game just once all season in 13 appearances. He ran 11 routes against the Rams in the divisional round and averaged 8.6 routes per game this season, according to Pro Football Focus, which is not enough to throw him close to two catches given his average in career of 0.08 receptions per course.
Out of 11 routes, he projected 0.88 receptions. And at his season average of 8.6 routes traveled, he was forecasting 0.69 catches. You can currently bet this line at DraftKings.
Limit: Less than 1.5 (-900)
Cameron Brate Over 2.5 receptions (-140)
Brate has caught three or more assists in six of his last nine games, including four catches in each of the Bucs’ two playoff games. He’s gone 38 routes in the playoffs towards Rob Gronkowski’s 37, and with Antonio Brown (knee) missing, we could see more of the Bucs’ tight two sets.
This is currently available from DraftKings.
Limit: Over 2.5 (-200)
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