Stalemate on border wall could lead to another government shutdown this fall


It's unclear what legislative issues might be in Congress by the end of September, but one thing is certain: President Trump's veto on a measure to end his national border emergency could lead to another government shutdown October 1st.

Yes, the president and the congress just crossed the border wall during the 35-day closure that ended last January. They could be back soon because Trump has chosen to bypass Congress, test the limits of the Constitution, separate powers and exploit credit bills to get money.

It was thought that the bipartisan attitude that prevailed on Capitol Hill and that would forge a funding agreement could generate cooperation and good will by fiscal year 2020. However, the national emergency declaration of President Trump could have sentenced any charity left to Congress.

The House and the Senate do not have the right to vote to cancel Trump's veto. The House is about 40 shy votes. The Senate has eight votes. The House is still ready to try the waiver on March 26th, but it is almost certain that this expiry will go away – and President Trump will use his statement to use various military funds to cover the cost of the wall unless he can. be blocked by a federal court. .

Now, the administration has presented to the legislator a list detailing a set of military projects allowing him to use money to pay the wall. The administration has described the block of money as "not obliged". It is $ 12.9 billion.

"He plans to take funds from real and effective operational priorities and needed projects and transfer them to his wall of vanity. It may help to strengthen its political base, but it could be at the expense of our military bases and the men and women of our armed forces who depend on it, "said Senator Jack Reed, DR, the largest Democrat. of the time, the Armed Forces Committee.

Congress is just starting to prepare the 12 appropriation bills that fund the government for the 2014 fiscal year. Almost all Democrats and, frankly, many Republicans, have described Trump's effort to bypass Congress as a air of cheeky air. Lawmakers from both parties closely monitored the prerogatives of the Congressional Fellowship. It is therefore likely that a group of bipartisan deputies will begin to put in place restrictions to prevent the president from diverting funds during the next spending cycle – without direct congressional approval.

That's where the problem lies.

President Trump 's budget request provides for $ 8.6 billion in funding for fiscal year 2010. Congress will likely give some of the money to the president, but not to all. Will he try to get around Congress again? Will Trump introduce a veto bill in which Congress will attempt to reaffirm its stock market power or limit its ability to bypass the traditional appropriation process? This is where a possible stop comes.

In the meantime, we do not know what Congress can do for the rest of the year.

Infrastructure? No action. Washington recently had another "Infrastructure Week", but no progress has been made.

There is a lot of talk about trade, but the administration has not yet reached a formal agreement with China. Negotiators signed a pact with Canada and Mexico to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Nevertheless, there is no timetable for the House or Senate to review the new US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer met with the Democratic House of Representatives last week, but everyone will guess when or if something could change through the Trade Congress.

The agenda in the Senate is mainly focused on the confirmation of judges and other candidates of the administration. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., Has queued for next week, but the current GOP agenda is not clear.

The tax reform is done, for better or for worse. Republicans can not come back to try to repeal and replace ObamaCare. The GOP is therefore trained in the problems of the Democrats. McConnell, Leader of the House Minority, Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., Steve Scalise, Whip of the House Minority, and Speaker of the House Republican Conference, Liz Cheney, R-Wyo. GOP leaders simply highlighted the problems faced by Democrats with representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan, among others. The House of Republicans' top officials have regularly criticized House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of D-Calif. For not doing more to control Omar's and Tlaib's behavior.


McConnell has organized a procedural vote to try to start the debate next week on the Green New Deal, supported by Ocasio-Cortez and others. The Senate needs 60 votes to launch the debate.

Senate Republicans certainly do not support the Green New Deal. McConnell's gamble is to get Democrats to support or reject the measure. Consider all Democratic senators running for president: Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Cory Booker of New Jersey, Kamala Harris of California and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota – not to mention Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. McConnell would clearly like to record a recorded vote on the Democrats' positions in favor of the Green New Deal. Then Republicans could say how radical and radical Democrats are.

McConnell would also like the Democrats to oppose the Green New Deal. He could then exclaim that Ocasio-Cortez's plan was too radical, even for the most liberal and environmentally friendly voices of the Democratic Party. Anyway, McConnell would get something that he wanted.

But we do not know if it would mark something definitive. The vote scheduled for next week is only a procedural vote. It is a step away from a vote up or down on the underlying measure. Any vote to start a debate – or to prevent the measure from speaking – is confusing in messaging. Of course, McConnell might say that Ocasio-Cortez's resolution was too distant to warrant debate. But this is not the most powerful argument to make in politics.


That's why the legislative program on Capitol Hill is so confusing. There is no clear path on what teams can accomplish in the coming months. There will be a struggle for the lifting of the debt ceiling this summer. How do the sides solve that is not clear. And the national emergency declaration is likely to create a new standoff over the border wall in September.

In other words, the rest of 2019 could reflect the beginning of the year.

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