Stock Market Today: August 19, 2019



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US stocks rallied Monday morning in at least a temporary respite after a defeat in mid-August. US government bond yields rose across the curve, especially 30-year bonds and 10-year bonds.

Here are the main market movements, starting at 9:47 am:

  • S & P 500 (^ GSPC): + 1.16%, or 33.37 points

  • Dow (^ DJI): + 1.1%, or 285.42 points

  • Nasdaq (^ IXIC): + 1.41% or 110.05 points

  • 10-Year Treasury Return (^ TNX): + 7.6bps at 1.616%

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "US Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, said during an appearance with Fox Monday morning business that the & nbsp;the government would extend a period of 90 days& nbsp; temporary license allowing the Chinese company Huawei Technologies to continue to do business with American companies. The license would have expired Monday, however, he told Fox Business, "We give them a little more time to wean themselves off." Huawei has US companies, including Qualcomm (QCOM), Intel (INTC) and Micron Technologies (MUUS Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, said in an appearance with Fox Business Monday morning that the government would extend a 90-day temporary license allowing Chinese company Huawei Technologies to continue doing business with US companies. The license would have expired Monday, however, Ross told Fox Business: "We give them a little more time to wean themselves." Huawei's clients include US companies such as Qualcomm (QCOM), Intel (INTC) and Micron Technologies (MU). Suppliers.

Ross added that 46 new subsidiaries of Huawei were added to the list of entities, which means that US companies can not sell to them in the absence of a specific license. These new additions bring to more than 100 the total number of Huawei affiliates on the Commerce Department's blacklist.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "This happened after & nbsp;President Donald Trump said this weekend& nbsp; that the United States "do very well with China and speak!" However, & nbsp;he added in remarks to reporters& nbsp; On Sunday, he was not yet ready to sign a trade deal, underlining the stalemate currently facing the two largest economies in the world. "data-reactid =" 24 "> This decision was made afterwards. President Donald Trump said this weekend that the US "is doing very well with China and talking!" However, he added in a statement to the press on Sunday that he was not yet ready to sign a trade deal, underlining the Current impasse between the two largest economies in the world.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "During the same remarks to reporters, Trump said that Apple (AAPL) CEO, Tim Cook, has "presented a very compelling argument" as to why it would be difficult for the iPhone maker to compete with Samsung in South Korea in the face of rising tariffs on imports from China. Much of Samsung's manufacturing takes place in South Korea, which allows the company to avoid tariffs on products from China that Apple would have to face if the Trump administration's tariffs were expanded. "Data-reactid =" 25 "> During the same remarks to reporters Trump said that Apple's CEO (AAPL), Tim Cook, had" presented a very compelling argument "explaining why it would be difficult for the manufacturer to iPhone to compete with the South Korea's Samsung in the face of rising tariffs on imports from China .. place in South Korea, allowing the company to avoid tariffs on products from China, that Apple would have to face if the tariffs of the Trump administration were expanded.

Trump originally planned to apply a 10% tariff on Chinese imports worth $ 300 billion on September 1st. However, at the beginning of December, it postponed some of these taxes, particularly on mobile phones and laptops.

Traders are working on the NYSE in New York, USA on August 14, 2019. REUTERS / Eduardo Munoz

<p class = "web-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Prices effective as of September 1st – that will now be on an additional $ 112 billion worth of imports from China – should & nbsp;costs every American household& nbsp; up to $ 1,000 a year, according to a JPMorgan analysis. This represents an increase of $ 600 per household previously. The cost to consumers would increase to $ 1,500 per household if the tariff rate applied to the new product line were increased to 25%, and offset the estimated benefit of $ 1,300 for the average US household received from the law. Trump administration tax, the JPMorgan "data-reactid =" 38 "> The tariffs coming into effect on September 1 – which will now represent an additional 112 billion dollars of Chinese imports – should cost every US household up to $ 1,000 a year, according to a statement JPMorgan analysis: it was previously $ 600 per household before, and the cost to consumers would increase to $ 1,500 per household if the rate of duty applied to the new range of products rose to 25%, which would offset the estimated profit of $ 1,300 by the average American .Main received from Trump's tax law, have said JPMorgan analysts.

At the same time, signs of increased stimulus from foreign governments in countries most affected by trade tensions and a global slowdown have added to the confidence on Monday.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Over the weekend, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) unveiled an interest rate & nbsp;update for new bank loans, which would lower real rates for businesses. The new rating system, which will result from open market rates and will come into effect on Tuesday, will allow companies to reduce their financing costs, which will encourage borrowing and investment as the country's growth is affected by the trade war between the United States and China. "data-reactid =" 40 "> Over the weekend, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) unveiled an interest rate update for new bank loans, which would lower real corporate rates The new quotation system, which will result from open market rates and will come into effect on Tuesday, will reduce corporate financing costs, which will encourage borrowing and investment as the country's growth is affected. by the trade war between the United States and China.

<p class = "canvas-atom-text-canvas Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Elsewhere, & nbsp;reports on Monday& nbsp; suggested that the German government prepare a fiscal stimulus package that could be triggered if & nbsp;economic contraction. The German economy contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter, as distress signals rose for the export-oriented country and after the slowdown in the manufacturing sector over the course of the year . "Data-reactid =" 41 "> Elsewhere, reports suggest Monday the German government was preparing a fiscal stimulus plan that could be triggered in the event of further contraction of the economy.The German economy s & rsquo; Was up 0.1% in the second quarter, as distress signals rose for the export – oriented country, and after the slowdown in the manufacturing sector in the country during the year.

Fed Watch

The way forward for future domestic monetary policy remains at the center of attention this week, as investors take into account the risks associated with the dovish trade war and bias of the world's central banks, which provoked a fall in interest rates around the world.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will publish the minutes of its July policy meeting, in which central bank officials delivered their first & nbsp;reduction of the interest rate since 2008.& nbsp; The minutes will detail the deliberations of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee when it took this decision and clarify the thinking of the two dissidents who, at the time, demanded that the rates remain unchanged. "data-reactid =" 48 "> On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its July policy meeting, during which central bank officials presented their first interest rate cut. since 2008. The minutes will detail the deliberations of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee who made this decision, and inform the thinking of the two dissidents who, at the time, demanded that the rates remain unchanged.

Then, at the end of the week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on monetary policy at the Fed's annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Market participants widely believe the Fed leader will use public remarks to reinforce expectations of further rate cuts after the September central bank meeting, which would bring the target range back to 1.75%. and 2.00%.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Starting Monday morning, the markets reached a price 92.7% probability of such a result, with a probability of about 7% of an additional reduction of 50 basis points, between 1.50% and 1.75%, according to & nbsp;CME Group."From Monday morning, the markets were expecting a 92.7% probability of obtaining such results, as well as a probability of about 7% of the market. an additional reduction of 50 basis points, ranging from 1.50% to 1.75%, according to Groupe CME.

But with expectations firmly anchored in the notion of lower rates, any deviation from a Dovish rhetoric could be disastrous for the markets, some analysts said.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "" The result is that there is a risk Powell and his colleagues end up disappointing the bond market next week – not signaling clearly enough that further rate cuts are expected in mid-September and beyond, "said Paul Ashworth, chief US economist at Capital Economics, & nbsp;written in a note.& nbsp; "It could & nbsp;trigger a carnage in the bond and equity markets. "" data-reactid = "63"> "The result is that there is a risk for Powell and his colleagues to disappoint the bond market next week – by not signaling clearly enough that declines Additional rates are going to take place in mid-September and beyond, "writes Paul Ashworth, chief US economist at Capital Economics, in a note," that could trigger a carnage on the bond and equity markets. "

"We may not even have to wait for the Jackson Hole symposium," he said. "The report of the July FOMC meeting, due to be released on Wednesday, could also be a determining factor for the market as it showed that officials were resisting multiple rate cuts"

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Emily McCormick is a journalist for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @emily_mcck"data-reactid =" 66 ">Emily McCormick is a journalist for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @emily_mcck

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