Stocks Drift As Yields Rise, Inflation Concerns Rise



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Stocks were mixed as commodity prices rallied as higher Treasury yields and expectations of higher inflation weighed on stock prices.

The S&P 500 trimmed some losses, but maintained an intraday decline, and the index was on track to add for a fifth straight day of gains, for the longest streak of losses since February last year. The Dow recovered from earlier losses and turned slightly positive. The Nasdaq significantly underperformed, falling more than 1.5% as tech stocks came under more pressure.

However, some commodity prices performed more strongly. Intermediate West Texas U.S. crude futures (CL = F) and Brent crude futures (BZ = F) both surged after Goldman Sachs strategists said in a statement. notes Monday that they expected Brent prices to hit $ 70 in the second quarter and $ 75 in the third quarter. this year against a background of growing demand. WTI crude oil has already gained 23% this year and topped the same period last year prices.

The prospect of rapidly rising inflation during the expected economic recovery this year has pushed bond prices down and yields have risen sharply. The benchmark 10-year Treasury bill yield (^ TNX) briefly exceeded 1.39% on Monday to hit a new one-year high, raising the specter of rising borrowing costs for businesses. Copper prices jumped above $ 9,000 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange, marking the highest level in nine years as tight supply, rising inflation and notions of programs Important infrastructure outside the United States and other countries has led to expectations of increased demand.

Since strong data on the effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine was first announced in November, traders have positioned themselves on the likelihood of strong economic growth later this year, with vaccine distribution ultimately allowing more businesses to reopen. As such, many traders have moved away from high growth tech stocks that have driven indexes higher for much of the past year. Instead, they favored more economically sensitive stocks and asset classes in anticipation of a post-pandemic recovery.

“Equity fund inflows have rebounded strongly in recent months, alongside optimism around an economic recovery. The rotation to equity funds has favored the more favorable strategies that benefit from the acceleration economic growth, ”Goldman Sachs strategists led by Arjun Menon said in a recent memo, based on an analysis of 507 equity mutual funds. “[Emerging market]- Small-cap, value and cyclical sector equity funds registered the largest inflows. Secular migration to ESG-focused funds has persisted and we expect this trend to accelerate under the United Democratic government. “

What’s more, about 57% of mutual funds have so far outperformed their benchmarks in 2021, the highest share at this point in a year in nearly a decade, the strategists added.

1:53 p.m. ET: US has so far administered more than 64 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine as death toll nears 500,000: CDC

The deployment of the COVID-19 vaccine in the United States has so far seen just under 64.2 million doses administered to Americans on Monday morning, according to an update from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In addition, 75.3 million doses have so far been delivered to states, including vaccines from Moderna, Pfizer and BioNTech. The latest update comes as the COVID-related death toll in the United States approaches half a million, according to data from Johns Hopkins.

Winter weather conditions across much of the United States have dampened the pace of vaccinations over the past week, although a deluge of additional inoculations is expected to be available in the coming months. About 145 million doses are set to be delivered in the next five and a half weeks, with a further 200 million expected by the end of May, according to the Associated Press. The Biden administration is currently easily tracking its goal of delivering 100 million doses in the first 100 days of President Joe Biden’s tenure – so far some 45 million doses have been administered since inauguration day on January 20.

11:38 a.m. ET: S&P 500, Dow cuts losses as tech stocks crash

Here’s where the markets were trading at 11:38 a.m. ET:

  • S&P 500 (^ GSPC): -19.81 points (-0.51%) to 3886.90

  • Dow (^ DJI): +2.17 points (+ 0.01%) to 31,496.49

  • Nasdaq (^ IXIC): -210.75 points (-1.5%) to 13,664.50

  • Gross (CL = F): + $ 1.86 (+ 3.1%) to $ 61.10 per barrel

  • Gold (GC = F): + $ 32.50 (+ 1.83%) to $ 1,809.90 per ounce

  • 10-year cash flow (^ TNX): +0.5 bp for a yield of 1.35%

9.44am ET: ‘It’s the right thing to do’: Yellen reiterates call for robust fiscal stimulus, reaffirms support for $ 1,400 in direct checks

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen doubled down on her call for another major budget package to tackle the COVID-19 crisis in the United States, suggesting that the benefits of measures like the $ 1,400 stimulus checks offered by President Joe Biden would ultimately do more good than harm the economy.

“The principle of wanting money to be targeted at those who have suffered the most is an important and valid principle. And the American Rescue Plan does this in different ways through targeted food assistance, unemployment benefit, rent assistance for low-income people facing eviction, and ‘other ways, and it’s pretty well targeted,’ Yellen told Andrew Ross Sorkin on the New York Times DealBook DC Policy Project webcast. “But the truth is, there are pockets of pain that go beyond what can be achieved in these very targeted ways.”

“Take the example of people who have had to drop out of the workforce because they have children who were not in school and who are facing loss of income. Many are not eligible for insurance. -unemployment. And some of them face food insecurity., “she added. “You have 24 million adults who say they don’t have enough to eat … 15 million people who are behind on their rent. And it’s not that easy in a very targeted way to help These persons.”

“So I think checks, for example, are checks for $ 1,400. Of course, we don’t want these to be attributed to very high income people and households that have been less affected. we know that there are there who are not affected by the more targeted things, that the help is also provided there, ”she concluded. “And I believe we’re going to be better at it, and it’s the right thing to do.”

9:30 a.m. ET: Stocks open lower

Here’s where the markets were trading on Monday morning:

  • S&P 500 (^ GSPC): -25.86 points (-0.66%) to 3880.85

  • Dow (^ DJI): -174.33 points (-0.55%) to 31,319.99

  • Nasdaq (^ IXIC): -152.41 points (-1.1%) to 13,719.36

  • Gross (CL = F): + $ 1.36 (+ 2.3%) to $ 60.60 per barrel

  • Gold (GC = F): + $ 18.80 (+ 1.06%) to $ 1,796.20 per ounce

  • 10-year cash flow (^ TNX): +1.2 bp for a yield of 1.357%

9:14 a.m.ET: Bitcoin prices drop 10%, pulling out of records

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) fell on Monday morning as cryptocurrency prices retreated after rising rapidly so far this year.

Bitcoin was down about 10% to around $ 51,400 as of 9:15 a.m. in New York City, after hitting a record high of over $ 57,600 over the weekend, according to Bloomberg data. However, the cryptocurrency has consistently maintained strong gains since the start of the year, after entering 2021 at just over $ 31,000.

8:36 a.m. ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index Shows Increased Growth in January

The Chicago Federal Reserve’s national activity index rose more than expected in January as personal consumption improved more than expected, reaffirming the strong rebound in consumer spending reflected in the retail sales report of last week from the Commerce Department.

The Chicago Fed index fell to 0.66 in January after a downward revision of 0.41 in December. Under the headline index, the contribution of personal consumption and housing together fell to 0.35 in January, reversing directionally from -0.06 in December. Although the employment and production indicators both held in positive territory in January, they declined slightly from December.

Consensus economists had expected the index to rise to just 0.45 in January, according to Bloomberg data. The index posted a positive reading for a ninth consecutive month in January.

7:19 a.m. ET Monday: Stock futures indicate lower open

Here’s where the markets were trading before the opening bell:

  • S&P 500 Futures (ES = F): 3,874.00, down 29 points or 0.74%

  • Dow Futures (YM = F): 31,254.00, down 179 points or 0.57%

  • Future Nasdaq (NQ = F): 13,395.25, down 180.75 points or 1.33%

  • Gross (CL = F): + $ 0.51 (+ 0.86%) to $ 59.75 per barrel

  • Gold (GC = F): + $ 18.30 (+ 1.03%) to $ 1,795.70 per ounce

  • 10-year cash flow (^ TNX): + 2.9bp for a yield of 1.374%

A Wall Street sign on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on February 17, 2021 in New York City.  (Photo by Angela Weiss / AFP) (Photo by ANGELA WEISS / AFP via Getty Images)

A Wall Street sign on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on February 17, 2021 in New York City. (Photo by Angela Weiss / AFP) (Photo by ANGELA WEISS / AFP via Getty Images)

Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @emily_mcck

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