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* Watch for violent thunderstorms until 11pm. for the immediate area of Washington and the points is *
5:10 pm – New storms developing in the west and southwest of Washington and likely to affect parts of the immediate area
As today's most intense storms leave our eastern regions and cross Chesapeake Bay, new, scattered storms have developed to the west and southwest of the district.
So far, these storms are not yet violent but it is not out of the question that they intensify a little. These random storms are expected to cross the immediate area and our southern suburbs in an hour or two and produce at least showers and lightning.
4:55 pm – Violent thunderstorm warning Bowie in Annapolis until 5:30 pm.
An intense storm with heavy rain, lightning and perhaps pockets of damaging winds is spreading east and just south of Rt. 50. It is currently around Bowie and will continue east through Annapolis. in the next 30 minutes or so. The strongest part of the storm should stay south of the road.
4:45 pm – Three strong storms along and east of Interstate 95
Until now, the storms are quite dispersed, but the ones that have formed are a bit aggressive. We have three active thunderstorm warnings right now:
- A violent storm that produced small hail northwest of Washington and passed by Takoma Park left the city. But now go through Landover and go to Bowie. It can contain small hail and isolated pockets of devastating winds, as well as torrential rains and floods. The warning expires at 5pm.
- North of the city, a strong storm is positioned just east of Columbia and hits Elkridge. He is expected to settle in northern Anne Arundel County and hit Glen Burnie around 5 pm It could also contain hail and strong winds.
- To the southeast of the city, severe storms cross the counties of central St. Mary's and south Calvert, where warnings are in effect until 5:15 pm. The stormy city near Leonardtown, which moves east, could produce strong winds and hail.
4:20 pm – Severe thunderstorm warning in the northern district by Silver Spring and east to Landover until 5:00 pm.
16:07 – Severe thunderstorm issued for the immediate area of Washington and the points is
As storms begin in the interstate 95 corridor and head east, the National Weather Service issued a violent storm alert up to 23 hours. Do not forget that a watch means that conditions are conducive to severe storms, but are by no means a guarantee – and that you must remain vigilant. If a violent storm Warning is issued, however, it means that a strong storm is imminent for your location and you should look for shelter.
The watch includes counties Montgomery, Fairfax and Prince William, as well as the district, but not the places to the west.
14:40 – 40 percent chance of a violent thunderstorm
Storms, up to now, have been slow to develop (some isolated cells have formed), but the models simulate the most intense activity that is triggered between 15h and 17h. We will monitor what is happening and will be able to better assess whether storm coverage will be widespread or, as yesterday, more isolated. For the moment, we would prefer something in between.
The Meteorological Service has a 40% chance of issuing a storm warning for the region and writes: "Some strong to heavy storms will initially develop over the north of VA and downtown this afternoon, heading from east to south. direction of the coast. The strongest cells can produce locally damaging wind gusts. A watch is possible. "
1:50 pm – Flash flood monitoring is canceled for the immediate vicinity, but continues in northern Maryland.
The National Weather Service has canceled flash flood monitoring for Fairfax, Montgomery and Prince George Counties, as well as the District, because atmospheric moisture levels do not support it. However, many storms are expected to continue until the evening and flash flood monitoring remains in effect in northern Maryland until 10 pm.
Original message from 12:55
Heat and moisture accumulate in the Washington area and thunderstorms are likely to occur in the area between Monday afternoon and Monday in the middle of the evening – some possibly coinciding with the journey from return.
Some thunderstorms can be violent with strong winds and hail, in addition to heavy rain and lightning. Some places may be affected by multiple storms in rapid succession, which presents an isolated flash flood hazard.
We do not expect widespread floods, but rather the possibility of some pockets of high water in areas affected by multiple storms. Poor drainage areas as well as streams and streams are the most exposed to this type of flood.
Although we expect many storms, especially in the late afternoon and early evening, there is some uncertainty as to their extent. The largest area of storm coverage could be around Washington, to the north, with a few more random activities to the south.
Storm dashboard
Approximate arrival time:
- From 2.30 pm to 4.30 pm in the western areas.
- From 3:30 pm to 5:30 pm in the immediate area, including Capital Beltway.
- 16:30 to 18:30 in areas east of Interstate 95.
More than one round of storms possible.
Everything is clear: after 22 hours
Duration of the storm: about 30 to 45 minutes, but several turns possible.
Chance of measurable rainfall at all sites: 65 percent.
Storm movement: from west to east.
Probable storm effects: heavy rain, lightning, gusty winds.
Possible storm effects: damaging wind gusts, sudden flood, hail, isolated tornado.
Precipitation potential: very variable; the average can be 0.5 inches, but some areas could see two to three inches, while others might end up with little rain.
Discussion
Monday afternoons and evenings seem active in terms of storm coverage. The National Meteorological Service's Storm Prediction Center has placed the Central Atlantic Corridor corridor in a moderate risk zone (Level 2 of 5) in the event of severe storms on Monday afternoon and evening. The threat mainly concerns gusts of wind (15% probability within a 25-mile radius) and, secondarily, heavy hail (5% probability).
The mostly sunny skies allow the atmosphere to destabilize considerably. This will allow a large amount of cloud energy to develop in the middle of the afternoon. In addition, low humidity levels are increasing due to southwesterly winds. This increases the risk of local torrential rains during storms.
On the surface, a cold front hides just north (near the Mason-Dixon line), and a weak low pressure wave can float along and south of this front for the next six to 12 hours. With the convergence of air along the frontal boundary and at low pressure, there may be enough triggers to withstand the widespread development of a storm.
The problem is that surface winds could veer further west during the afternoon. If this happened, the convective cover would be more limited because of the drier air that was breaking on the eastern slopes of the Appalachian Mountains.
Wind shear (increasing wind speed with altitude) will play an important role in storm behavior on Monday. The shear causes the vertical tilt of updrafts in the clouds, which increases their intensity and also allows stronger descending clouds to evolve. Overall, moderate shear can increase the resistance and duration of the storm.
HRRR simulated radar between 15 and 22 hours This is just a model. The location and timing of the storm vary.
The shear mode of the Monday wind favors multicellular clusters and short thunderstorms moving east of the mountains. Cells that become bow-shaped or arc-shaped can harbor harmful wind gusts. The intensity of the shear should decrease throughout the afternoon, but if strong pockets of wind blow, areas of short upward rotation may develop. If one or more of these supercell type storms emerge, a large hail (more than one inch) or a brief tornado is a distant possibility.
High altitude winds in the low and medium levels will also align with the meteorological front. Whenever this happens and the limit is stationary (like Monday), a process called "echo training" may develop. This involves the repeated formation of stormy cells in the wind and the leeward passage in the same place. Heavy rains are light and can last for several hours. Thus, combined with high humidity rates, there is a risk of flash floods some Monday afternoon and evening.
High-resolution models such as NAM and HRRR all describe many intense thunderstorm cells, emitting multiple waves or batches on Monday afternoons and evenings.
A severe storm warning may be issued for the area. We will monitor the situation throughout the day and provide updates.
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