[ad_1]
A few days after the biggest strong storm hatch of the season so far, another major storm threat is looming on the horizon. A vigorous and slow system will affect areas Texas on the east coast from Wednesday to Saturday.
The Oklahoma National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Storm Prediction Center has issued alerts for the south central United States on Wednesday and the Gulf Coast for Thursday.
The next wave of severe weather is predicted to be almost as widespread as last weekend's damaging storms. The final count of this outbreak included nearly 60 tornado reports and more than 550 reports of wind damage.
Wednesday's violent storms will go from central Texas to northern Kansas, via Oklahoma. A strong low pressure system at altitude, with an accumulation of cold air aloft, will emerge from the deep south-west. Thunderstorms will ignite on the "dry line", a clear division between dry desert air and the moist air of the Gulf of Mexico, as well as a strong cold front. When these storms sink into the cold pool, a very large hail the size of a baseball is possible.
The storm system will intensify Thursday as it moves east along the Gulf Coast. The winds at altitude will strengthen, allowing storms "supercellular" more energetic. As a result, there is a significant threat of tornadoes and high winds in Louisiana and Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday nights.
Since early April, precipitation has been two to four times higher than normal along parts of the Gulf Coast. The wet weather in this region is typical of El Niño conditions, which result from warming sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. El Niño reinvigorates the subtropical jet stream, creating an active southern storm track from Texas to Florida. The effect of this season is enhanced by an important "hot spot" located west of the Baja California peninsula in Mexico, where the water temperature is impressive 5 degrees above of normal.
This strong subtropical diet, combined with the humidity of the Gulf of Mexico, will produce torrential rains from the Gulf Coast Thursday north in the northeast on Friday. Rainfall amounts and localized floods will be increased as the storm system comes to a standstill at the end of the week.
The reason for this slowdown is fascinating. It starts at 4000 meters distance in Scandinavia, where a mountain of hot air, known for its blocking effect, will settle. The river of air that crosses the Atlantic, also known as the jet stream, will be forced to slow down and pile up behind the blocking summit. You can think of this as a weather jam. When this occurs, a western flow is, normally fast and flat, undulating, deforming and amplifying, causing the development of large storms and their stall. This is exactly what will happen from Friday to Saturday on the east coast of the United States.
Heavy rains of rain are likely to get stuck in the east from Pennsylvania to the Carolinas. Just above the surface, a powerful low-level jet stream will accumulate overhead with winds of 80 mph. If violent storms manage to tap into this jet stream at low altitude and to bring the wind back to the surface, it will result in pockets of damaging wind gusts. With this type of energy scheme, even some isolated tornadoes are possible in these same areas.
[ad_2]
Source link