Studios are experimenting with output models what this means for movie piracy

2021 will be a very different year for cinema. Studios, hoping to find ways to cash in on big-budget blockbusters, have turned to new methods of film release.

For Warner Bros., the pandemic led its parent company AT&T to decide to release all of its films in theaters and on HBO Max on the same day. Universal, owned by Comcast, has chosen to enter into deals with individual theaters to shorten the time their films have to stay in theaters before switching to premium video on demand.

Then there are those like Disney who have, for the most part, postponed the majority of their films until 2021 and placed a handful on their own streaming service.

But box office analysts won’t be the only ones looking closely at how these films perform next year. Hacking experts are eagerly anticipating the impact of these new publishing methods on illegal streaming.

“As a data science researcher, it’s a dream,” said Brett Danaher, professor of entertainment analytics and data science at Chapman University. “It’s such a great experience.”

Heading into 2021, hacking experts told CNBC they had theories on how hackers would react to these different models, but weren’t sure what would happen.

On the one hand, hacking is a difficult thing to follow. Experts can track some downloads from major hacking websites, but once this file is downloaded, it can be distributed and streamed to thousands of other viewers privately.

It’s also why experts provide a range of what hacking could cost the US economy, instead of a hard number. Last year, the Global Innovation Policy Center estimated that global online piracy costs the U.S. economy between $ 29.9 billion and $ 71 billion in lost revenue each year.

But a lot can be learned from people who hack. By examining the data, experts like Andy Chatterley, CEO and co-founder of MUSO, a global authority on digital piracy, can provide insight to media companies around the world.

On the one hand, Chatterley noted that the bigger the buzz around a blockbuster, the more piracy it will see. Movies that have big marketing campaigns, pent-up demand from avid fans, and high media exposure will generate more illegal downloads online.

MUSO data also suggests that piracy increases when higher quality versions of movies are available on pirate sites. For example, “Bad Boys for Life” hit theaters in January and saw a “fairly moderate” amount of piracy, Chatterley said. However, when it became available on video on demand in mid-March, there was a surge in online piracy.

Conversely, Disney’s “Mulan,” which immediately went to streaming, saw a massive spike on release day, followed by a decrease in overtime.

“The hack was loaded up front,” Chatterley said. “But the hack wasn’t necessarily bigger or smaller.”

For companies like AT&T that will be releasing high-quality movie versions from day one, there are ways to deter piracy. For example, two weeks before “Wonder Woman 1984” was released in North America in theaters and on HBO Max, the film was released internationally.

This allowed audiences to see the film in theaters before a high-quality copy was placed on pirate websites. This is especially important because HBO Max is currently only a national product.

“Of course you have people who are always going to hack,” said Michael Smith, professor of information technology and marketing at Carnegie Mellon University. “The people you are worried about are those who would have bought your content legally but found [piracy] is more convenient. “

Smith said the majority of people who hack do so because they have no other legal way to consume a product. If a simpler legal means had been provided to these viewers, they would have paid to view the film.

While online piracy can have negative financial impacts on media companies, the data collected by experts can also help these companies determine what their audiences want to watch. Data from groups like MUSO can tell companies which movies or TV shows they should buy or license either domestically or abroad.

For example, the European Union Intellectual Property Office determined that “The Mummy” was disproportionately pirated in Spain and that the TV show “South Park” was a popular illegal download in Finland.

This information tells Universal that it might want to make “The Mummy” more widely available in Spain and to Viacom that it might want to make a deal with a Finnish streaming service.

As Danaher said, 2021 will be a great experience for the industry when it comes to hacking. This is the first time that there will be several different posting strategies that will all happen at the same time and for an extended period.

Even though some titles are more popular than others, there should be some trends in the data that show how people are consuming their entertainment.

Like the year before, it will be difficult for experts to determine a clear financial impact, especially as the pandemic is likely to affect the way people choose to watch certain films. Those who can’t go to theaters can choose to broadcast legally when available, but can choose illegal methods for big movies instead.

Additionally, with premium video on demand becoming a buying option sooner than usual, it may not be immediately clear whether it’s on-demand buying or pirating that is cannibalizing movie theater revenues.

“Unfortunately, I can’t tell you who is going to win the horse race,” Danaher said.

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.