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For months, places like gyms and restaurants have been linked to outbreaks of COVID-19. Now, a new study has determined that these and other places are the source of most cases of COVID-19 in the United States.
The study, which was published in the journal Nature, used cell phone data to track the hourly movements of 98 million people from 57,000 neighborhoods to points of interest, such as restaurants, churches and shops, for two months, starting in March. The location data, which was collected by SafeGraph, a company that aggregates anonymous location data from mobile apps, came from 10 of the largest US cities, including Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, New York and Philadelphia.
The research team then compared these movements with the number of COVID-19 cases for each area. Then they used a model to simulate different scenarios, such as reopening some places while others remained closed. Researchers also estimated COVID-19 infections based on restrictions, or lack thereof, in these areas.
Overall, the researchers determined that opening restaurants at full capacity led to the greatest increase in infections. The opening of full capacity gyms, cafes, hotels and motels has also created a surge in infections.
On average, the researchers determined that the following sites “produced the largest increases in infections predicted upon reopening”:
In fact, the study linked over 80% of infections to these locations.
Researchers found that people from minority and low-income groups were more likely to leave their homes more often because their jobs required it and to shop in smaller, more crowded places than those with higher incomes. were higher. As a result, the risk of contracting COVID-19 is greater for people in these groups.
All is not gloomy: Researchers found that setting a 30% occupancy cap at all sites could significantly reduce infections. Infections fell further when the cap was 20 percent.
It’s important to note that this is a pattern – it didn’t definitely tie the cases to these spots. Instead, he found that the locations are likely to contribute to the spread of the virus.
But there have been concrete examples that suggest the latest findings are about something. In October, an indoor pirouette course in Canada was linked to at least 69 cases of COVID-19. In May, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shared a case report detailing how up to 87% of members of a Washington state choir were infected after 2.5 hours of practice alongside a limb with COVID-19 who was asymptomatic. And a report released by the CDC in September found that adults who tested positive for COVID-19 were twice as likely to have reported eating out as those who had not contracted the virus.
Dr Amesh A. Adalja, a senior researcher at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, tells Yahoo Life that the latest data points to the need for prevention measures in public hot spots. “This clearly shows that when you decrease the capacity of a restaurant, there is less dispersion,” he says. “When you are nearby it is more likely that the spread will occur.”
Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist and professor at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, tells Yahoo Life he’s “happy” the study results are being released “because it reinforces what public health officials thought. “
“Group events with people coming together and being carefree or even carefree, not wearing masks, singing in places of worship – these are virus accelerator events,” he says. “People then take the virus home and it spreads to their homes or to their neighbors.
But Adalja points out that the results don’t necessarily mean you should avoid these spots. Instead, he says, the study results show that these are the places that need the most public health interventions. “This is where you want to focus public health efforts,” he says. “Without mitigation, there is a greater risk of spread.”
Of course, not all areas have capacity restrictions or business regulations. In September, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis lifted statewide restrictions on bars and restaurants, allowing them to operate at full capacity. South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem released an announcement in August urging businesses to “grow their business” in her state. “When it comes to sustaining growth and removing government interference, South Dakota is all about business,” she said in the announcement from the governor’s Office of Economic Development.
If you live in an area with slim or no restrictions, Adalja urges you not to visit potential COVID-19 hot spots. “If you don’t see any change in operations, these environments won’t be safe places,” he says.
For the latest news and updates on the coronavirus, follow to https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus. According to experts, people over 60 and those with compromised immune systems continue to be at greatest risk. If you have any questions, please consult the CDC and WHO resource guides.
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