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1a. On Sunday in New Orleans, the quarterback game will be an old man who relies on a horizontal play and another old man who throws on the field.
In November, when the scorching summer sun relentlessly pounded our tired backs, the tale was that Tom Brady could no longer throw on the pitch, dooming his marriage to Bruce Arians. At the time, he was in a prolonged crisis and, 12 games in the year (and entering a week-end break), hitting 28.1% of attempts that traveled more than 20 yards in the tunes. In the last four games of the regular season, he’s made 59.1 percent of those shots – an absurdly high rate – while increasing his field attempts from 5.30 per game to 5.50 per game, and a times every 6.18 throws once every 7.41 throws. By the end of the regular season, he had attempted more shots from the field (86) than he had ever had in a season, and he finished them at a rate (36.0%) well above the mark of his career in New England (30.9%). .
USA Today Sports (4)
Brees’s arm limits the Saints to a horizontal attack, but Brady’s arm strength – although diminished – is still good enough to push him down. However, what about that jump in the completion rate before and after the expiration of more than 30 percentage points? I’m glad you asked the question.
Part of that is the sample size – four games are, potentially, just one hot streak. But above all, it has to do with protecting the passes. In the last four weeks of the season, Brady has hardly been under pressure. Most of those downline attempts were against Atlanta (two games) and Detroit, two teams with helpless passes. The first 12 games of the season, however, featured a number of days and nights during which Tampa’s generally strong to very good offensive line couldn’t hold out.
Brady’s physical decline comes against the pressure. When he can stand back in a clean pocket and throw in some throws, he’s as good as ever. But he doesn’t move in the pocket as well as he once did and, yes, he gets a little more nervous than before after taking a few hits.
In the first two meetings with the Saints this year, the Bucs were absolutely unable to block the rush to the New Orleans Pass. Brady has been sacked three times in each game (a lot, considering he’s been sacked 21 times in total over the season) and under constant pressure. In the first game, they moved the ball exclusively through questionable pass interference flags. In the second game, they didn’t move the ball. This time, they will also be without Alex Cappa, their starting right guard.
So in short, if they make Cam Jordan and Trey Hendrickson look like old Reggie White and the bigger, faster, stronger brother of vintage Reggie White, they won’t score any points.
1b. It’s not only one of the most underrated lines in the history of the show (I think it gets some appreciation, but Martin steals the scene for a lot), but I have to think it’s was some of the most fun to present and play.
(1 C. The above referred to all the “old man” stuff. With Brady and Brees. To be clear.)
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2a. When my 5-year-old and I pull out the Pokémon cards (or ‘let’s deal the P-mon’ as I call it but no one else does … yet) and beat him in back-to-back games, and I can tell he gets a little upset as I pop-and-lock while singing the only snippet of what I understand to be the Pokémon theme song * to celebrate, will I maybe waste my Charizard in a show of mercy in the next game? Perhaps.
But other than this or a similar scenario, the conventional wisdom that it is difficult to beat an opponent three times in a row is not only statistically false, but also makes no sense when it comes to an opponent. informal reasoning.
If you had to propose, before the season, These two playoff-caliber teams will play three times this year, will either of those teams win all three games? The answer would be, probably not– the most probable scenario is 2-1. But if a team has already beaten an opponent twice, they are actually expected to beat the team a third time, because in reality they have proven that it is an advantageous game, or they are simply better, or both.
2b. Football Perspective has real analysis, if you like that sort of thing.
* —There are 150 or more to see, being a Pokémon Master is my destiny! Catch them, catch them, catch them all, catch them all. Catch Them, Catch Them, Catch Them All, Catch Them All, Pokémon!
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3. This is your annual reminder that it’s stupid to keep calling it the divisional cycle. This should be called the conference semi-finals. If in casual conversation someone calls it the Division Cycle, I encourage you to rebuke them in an angry tone and at a disproportionate volume to what you used during that interaction. And tell them Football Things sent you.
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4. There’s not much to say about the Chiefs-Browns game. In the last 14 months, in the games they tried, Kansas City lost once. The Browns are more than a delicious story – the offense was excellent once they got out of the monsoon season, and they’ll have pretty much their full complement of players and coaches on Sunday. But they are, rightly, double-digit underdogs.
Still, can you imagine a Bills-Browns Conference title game? I can. They would play in Buffalo. The Bills would wear their blue uniforms and the Browns would wear their white uniforms. The ball would most likely be the usual shade of brown with white laces on it.
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5. There are a lot of variables that determine whether a head coach hire turns out to be the right one – the quality of staff and staff, the suitability of staff and staff, the chance of getting injured, etc. So it makes no sense to say: Great location! Book your Super Bowl tickets three years from now! But Jets fans are expected to go ahead and file a deposit for the AFC title game three years from now. (Or at least block on Jan 28, 2024, maybe they lose a tiebreaker and have to play on the road.)
Robert Saleh is the real deal. He’s loved by his players, and he put his own twists on the Seahawks-style Cover-3 in San Francisco. But, more importantly, as he’s shown this year, he’s a great teacher and a great problem solver. His unit was without Nick Bosa and a host of starters – you rarely see a defense with that many uniform numbers in the ’60s in regular season games – yet the 49ers have finished sixth in defensive DVOA this season. And three seasons ago, when they wrestled, it was mainly due to a lack of absurdly unlucky turnover.
The Jets have the # 2 pick, two more in the top-34, and a total of five in the top 100. They also have a ton of ceiling space and can, for example, wrestle from a deep receiver market. to compensate for letting Robby Anderson walk last offseason. I think we can all agree, a golden age of Jets football is coming soon. What if it doesn’t? None of you will remember I wrote this anyway.
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6. Ladies and gentlemen . . . Neil Young & Crazy Horse!
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