Suns-Bucks NBA Finals Game 3 pick, betting odds: expect Milwaukee to ride top players, move back in series

Monty Williams has a lot of wonderful traits as a coach, but his best part is that he’s not kidding. In the first two games of the final, he played his starting XI for 52 of the 96 minutes in total. That’s over half of the show’s total minutes. Even with Dario Saric and Torrey Craig injured, the Phoenix Suns don’t have to. They are one of the deepest teams in the NBA. They do it because these are the finals and playing something other than your best lineups should be considered a last resort.

It usually takes a little while for Mike Budenholzer to get this memo. He’s only played his five starters together for just 21 total minutes so far in this series, less than half of Phoenix. Their starters won those minutes by nine points, suggesting that the best version of the Milwaukee Bucks can follow the Suns. Budenholzer just hasn’t used the best version on their list enough. The good news for Milwaukee is that the same story played out in the second round series against the Brooklyn Nets. The Bucks played their starters in just 27 total minutes in the first two games of this series – the two losses – but used it for 25 minutes in a must-see Game 3 and reversed the series.

1	13	+3
2	14	-3
3	25	+8
4	15	-1
5	11	+7
6	18	+15
7	27	-4

The Suns kill the Bucks when Antetokounmpo goes to the bench. Part of that will normalize as the shooting numbers do, but the easiest solution for the Bucks is to just keep their best players on the field longer so the Suns don’t have so many of those opportunities. Yes, Giannis is still recovering from injury, but he will have three days off after each game until a possible Game 7, and these are the finals. If there has ever been a time to go all out, it is now. If the Bucks play more in their top groups, they stand a chance of winning this thing. It remains to be seen whether they will be able to do this for five games, but for now, let’s focus on the third game. Here are Sunday’s best bets.

All lines via William Hill Sportsbook

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Phoenix Suns

• If the Bucks follow the Nets series pattern, they’ll play their starters together more often in Game 3. That’s not a card the Suns have yet to play, and if Torrey Craig is indeed out, Phoenix will have to rely on Frank Kaminsky during the minutes Deandre Ayton is resting and probably Abdel Nader to spell Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder. Nader has missed most of the season with injury and hasn’t played much in the playoffs. Kaminsky is a huge defensive passive. Phoenix still has a lot of control over this series, but coming home with a sense of urgency should favor the Bucks. The choice: Bucks -4

• The Suns shoot 9 of 13 of 3 and 16 of 25 of 2 when Giannis Antetokounmpo leaves the game. Part of this is due to his absence weakening Milwaukee’s defense, but even if he doesn’t play for more minutes, part of it is unbearable shots. No team in history is this good on offense, so expect a case with a lower score as this normalizes. If we stick with the Nets series as a model, remember that Game 3 of this clash only gave us 169 points overall. The choice: Less than 222
• Antetokounmpo will probably not score 42 points anymore. He won’t be shooting 18 free throws and he probably won’t be as consistent on those flip jumpers. The key here is the volume. Giannis took the reins of Milwaukee’s offense throughout the third quarter because his teammates weren’t up to the task. Athletically, he looked much closer to himself than in the first game. Give the ball to Giannis often and he will score points. The choice: Giannis over 31.5 points