A meeting that forms Europe in Helsinki today

Why are European congresses relevant?

The largest party in Europe at present, the EPP, center-right conservative group, will bring together more than 700 delegates at the Helsinki exhibition center.

The EPP Congress in Helsinki Exhibition Center starts this Wednesday. The main program is to elect the first candidate of the EPP, who is a candidate for the presidency of the Commission. The election is between the German Christian Democrat Manfred Weber (CSU) and the Finnish liberal moderate Alexander Stubb (Coll).

But in flight too, a fool of heavy politicians who are all players on the European chessboard right now.

This week, another congress is also organized. The European Liberal Party Alde is meeting in Madrid and visitors come from Emmanuel Macrons party and walk. Macron wants to form an alliance of liberals or progressives, a cross-border network that thwarts the alliance that skeptics of the euro, right-wing parties and immigrants want to form. The political map in Europe may be different after the spring elections.

Who will monitor, in addition to the best candidates?

Angela MerkelThe German chancellor, a longtime chancellor, announced that she would cease leading the CDU party. Although she wishes to continue to hold the post of Chancellor Chancellor, Europe has begun to prepare after Angela Merkel.

At the same time, several critics are looking for signs indicating that it is only one step forward: it is speculated if it is a black horse occupying a high position in the EU, completely independent of the first candidate proposed by EPP. A chair where she can sit is the chair of the board (as Donald Tusk have now). This role is to bring together the compromises between governments and is close to Merkel's forces.

On the site is also the CSU profile Horst Seehoferhe who was a pole in Merkel's meat during the government crisis. They had internal disagreements about migration – a subject that still characterizes European politics and divorces. But the national elections in Bavaria a few weeks ago were a defeat for both. Instead, you've gone green and AfD greedy for immigration in a polarizing skin, which is considered an iron sign.

Viktor Órban fly in. The authoritarian Hungarian Prime Minister, who advocated "illiberal democracy", is controversial in Europe, where Parliament wanted sanctions against crimes against the rule of law. It is also controversial within the EPP. The Finnish Sami parties have taken the initiative to dismiss his party, Fidesz. But the Chancellor of the Austrian Chancellor Sebastian Kurz – also in Helsinki – is inscribed in a different perspective and believes that it is better to keep Órban integrated in the reinforcement of the EPP. Kurz is among those who have challenged the EU's integration policy, have pleaded for hard borders and reinforced the profile of the Austrian EU presidency.

On-site also includes the Irish group Taoisech, Leo Varadkar, and the brokite negotiator from the EU Michel Barnier. The Irish-Northern Ireland issue is the most difficult end of the negotiations.

first Juha Sipilä A controversial group of EU heads of state and heights will visit Villa Bjälbo on Wednesday and Thursday.

What is happening at the EPP Congress?

The main decision of the Congress is to appoint the first candidate of the EPP – or Spitzen candidate – for the post of President of the European Commission. One of the best candidates of this party, which has long been the most important in the European Parliament and can be reissued, takes an important step in its success. Jean-Claude Juncker. Two candidates with different profiles, the president of the EPP group Weber and the boss of the EIB Stubb, competing for the ticket.

The EPP has long refused to organize a debate between Weber and Stubb. Weber did not seem to ignite and, as the EPP group chair, he finds himself in the middle of the institution. Open debates between Weber and Stubb would have been bad for Weber and good for Stubb, who has a heavy resume in comparison, a greater experience of multi-level European politics, is more colorful on the estraden and speaks several languages. .

At the eleventh hour, however, a small debate was added to the agenda at 7:30 pm, but that will only take half an hour after a long day of evening and workshops on political programs. It's a discount that arrives late to make an impact. At 8 pm, everyone will have dinner with the mayor Jan Vapaavuori, the debate is likely to be disrupted by waste chairs empty.

Thursday at 10 am Stubb and Weber will share their sales figures with the delegates and the vote will be over.

What are Stubb's chances of being the best candidate?

They look small – but also how many votes Stubb hits and what it is for the future.

Weber received support from all the prime ministers and heads of government from the EPP parties. They are eight, with Merkel in the lead. Weber also enjoys support from Órban, while Stubb believes that if Fidesz does not respect the values ​​of the EPP, they should be removed from the party.

The parties that have launched their support for Stubb come from the Nordic and Baltic countries: Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia and Norway, which do not vote for the best candidates because Norway is not part of the EU. Out of a total of 758 delegates, 734 voted for the best candidate.

The northern parties behind Stubb are small. In comparison, the German CDUs and CSUs have a total of 88 delegates, the Finnish Assembly has 12 delegates, the Estonian Estama 5 and the moderate Swedes and Christian Democrats 15.

It is therefore crucial that the delegations of the main countries are divided. This is possible because it is an in camera vote: each delegate can vote as he wishes.

Does the system with the best candidate play a role?

This is a big question mark. Today, the EPP is very attached to the highest-level candidate system. Indeed, the EPP is the most important and should be again.

Dissatisfaction always extends elsewhere for various reasons. The governments of the member states will bind themselves. Floran of the heads of government is Brokig. The previous agreement on the distribution of power between the EPP and the Social Democrats fell together.

Therefore, it is likely that the first job in the EU, even if the best candidates will be appointed, are being negotiated. It is not only the old party borders that apply, but also alliances that can be formed around Macron and right-wing populations, as well as the struggle between governments.

The President of the Commission is not the only one to be elected. There is a president of council, a speaker of parliament and a high representative of foreign policy. In the fall of 2019, two key periods will also be published: Mario Draghis mandate as head of the ECB and Mario Centenos as president of the euro group.

Therefore, inter alia, the Vice-President of the Commission Jyrki Katainen (Saml / EPP) felt that Stubb had a chance in several of the most important posts in the post-election negotiations.

Then there may already be new pilgrims of energy distribution. But we do not yet know what alliances are formed and how becomes the polarized parliament.