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Conversations began in September last year between Eritrea and Ethiopia. The dialogue was initiated by Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, but after his successor Abiy Ahmed took office at the beginning of April, he confirmed having buried the ax after 20 years of civil war and war cold.
The same day at the end of the peace agreement, Ethiopia sent a request to the UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, for it to sanction sanctions against Eritrea. Less than a day earlier, Eritrea had been welcomed back to the Igad regional cooperation bloc and it is clear that the closed country is heading towards a diplomatic heat as part of the peace process.
The fact that Guterres (according to Reuters) stated that the sanctions "naturally obsolete" would constitute a very unusual waiver to practice or overthrow, depending on that he received in advance clear signs of certain members of the Security Council.
with an overview of the process to which DN spoke.
– A generic secretary general should not normally give his opinion on the actions (sanctions in this case, the Red Note) taken by the Security Council, according to a source.
Read more: A big step forward for peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea
Guterres made a disaster that can be interpreted as an attempt to undermine the Council of security or he has already spoken to the permanent members of Council before he announced that sanctions could be released. In most cases, sanctions may last many years after the initial factors that led to the actions changed
Eritrea and neighboring Somalia were sanctioned for a decade, partly to because of support for armed groups. Peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia has nothing to do with sanctions, but when the international community has been deeply involved in the peace talks – the United States, the United Arab Emirates , Saudi Arabia and several countries have interests in a successful peace process. pragmatism vis-à-vis Eritrea (whose port of Assab is strategically important for the UAE and Saudi Arabia due to the situation in Yemen). Peace between the two countries is considered one of the greatest diplomatic successes of the continent for many years and could significantly improve the overall security situation in the Horn of Africa, which militates in favor of Eritrea.
For Sweden, it is a challenge that can play a major role for Swedish political prisoner Dawit Isaak, who has been wounded in Eritrea since 2001. His fate depends greatly on part of the recently completed war, referring to the security situation as Isaias Afewerki, president of Eritrea, exonerating democracy and imprisoning undecided thinkers, and that is with the war as an excuse that he ruled his country with iron.
The sanctions against Eritrea are regular and do not need to be renewed to continue to apply. Should they be terminated, however, an active Security Council resolution is necessary, but this can not be assumed in November if the custom trains are to be followed. Otherwise, a so-called extraordinary meeting of the Security Council is necessary. Ethiopia, like Sweden, is a temporary member and Prime Minister Abiy has great interest in consolidating any progress in relations with Eritrea before his own government coalition EPRDF holds a congress in August.
That there is a willingness to go forward, a process leading to a resolution will take more than a month, unless there is a complete consensus among the permanent members, but this requires the Security Council that it bend something for Eritrea.
Read more: Eritreans alleviated but waiting to celebrate
Margot Wallström is in New York where she will hold a press conference on the Swedish presidency in July, with a special focus on women's peace on Tuesday morning local time. and security.
On Monday afternoon, the DN asked the question of how Sweden imposed sanctions against Eritrea. His press secretary, Erik Wirkensjö, says Wallström is behind Guterres' statement.
"The sanctions will be fixed as long as the reason for their introduction persists," says Wallström through Wirkensjö
. But this is not the surprising part of Guterre's statement but his speech that "these conditions will no longer apply". "This means that it anticipates the work of the Sanctions Committee.
Sweden's program for the month of July is unusually busy and prepared months ago." There is little room for new topics to Program on the Security Council agenda Sweden may choose to avoid the problem when Ethiopia is still the driving force behind the released penalties.
However, Wallström chose to defend actively the softer line of Ethiopia and Guterre against Eritrea and start early sanctions negotiations.It may have progressed under the scheme of humor in Asmara. Under 17, diplomacy did not succeed in the case of Dawit, and the regime is generally considered impossible to influence, but when the President of Eritrea now sees a future in the international community, he may have direct interests of simultaneously imitate diplomatic obstacles.
If Isaias barely refuses to release some prisoners, Wallström could become a target of Swedish criticism if it chooses in July a sweeter tone against the regime that jails a Swedish citizen and does not receive a risk-taking dividend policy.
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