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While on MSB continued feverish activity to aid Swedish extinction efforts and appeal to international resources, it was noted that four fires are now becoming so great that rain is required to extinguish them.
– The assessment is that it takes two weeks of rain to let them out. Persistent rain. Marcus Årskog, spokesperson of the MSB special organization for forest fires, believes that this probability is not very great
Anders Granström researcher on forests at the 39, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå. is so great that its longevity will be determined by the weather. However, it is not as pessimistic as to how much rain may be needed
– Each millimetric precipitation makes it easier. And it rains 10 millimeters in a day, which is a normal rain, it is usually enough that the fire goes out and does not bounce, he says.
It does not matter how much rain goes out to linger. In the ten hours scheduled by SMHI for the worst fire zones, only a few rain clouds appear the following Sunday.
– The risk of fire is already very high in many parts of the country and the risk is even greater. The weather is intact, says Marcus Årskog
Read more: SMHI: We do not see an end to that
Another relevant concern is that even the wind forces seem to be increasing. Especially in the middle of next week, from Friday 0-1 second Wednesday to 3-4 Wednesday, with even stronger winds. According to Anders Granström, the rate of fire expansion is directly related to the strength of the wind
– An increase of 3.5 seconds will double the rate of spreading. In addition, the heat of the fire makes the winds in the area stronger and more irreversible, he says.
Read more: Weather Maps and Bulletins – they try to predict the unpredictable progression of the fire
The great expanses are only found on the outer edges that they actually burn, and it is there that are directed all the efforts of bombardment of the water.
A fire-fighting plane can extinguish a distance of 50 meters for each round, but then it must be maintained with ground water so that it does not resume a few hours later, according to Anders Granström
– "When the fire is so intense that it burns in the treetops, which is probably the case on the fronts of fire, the rate of fire" spreading can reach 50 meters. in the minute.
Read more: Finnish forest roads give rapid impetus
According to Anders Granström, the extinguishment work probably focused on side and rear flooding, as well as on the fire attempt.
– But as soon as it blows a little more, it becomes virtually impossible, so burning flags can spread out over 500 meters and light up the forest beyond the barrier. "
The direction of propagation is controlled almost exclusively by the wind, which, along with moisture, also primarily determines the rate of application." However, the size of the area the fire increases exponentially, although the time is constant.
The more than 20 000 hectares estimated up to here have burned can therefore be considerably higher if they can continue to burn for several days or even weeks, however, Anders Granström does not want to speculate on a larger scale
– What we can say is that fast areas quickly become large fronts. There are also several fires, and thus several different fronts, he says.
In addition, MSB has no analysis of the number of forests that can burn before all fires are 19659002] – It is very difficult to how a great forest fire will behave. It depends a lot on the wind and it can change all the time. What we are focusing on now is to try to prevent the construction of fires, "says Marcus Årskog
But as long as it does not rain, we can not stop spread, just try to steer it to another place.
– Yes, yes. And try to limit the spread as much as possible.
Is there any kind of crisis plan with measures that can be taken if the fires continue to spread for a long time?
– What we can do is help the rescue service with additional resources, and try to work preventively so that small fires do not grow and develop. There, we are cooperating with the Coast Guard, who can help find air fires, "says Årskog.
Read more: Forest fires in the country – the situation at the moment
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