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The meeting of Putin and Trump in Helsinki "crushes the anti-Russian front". He says Sergey Markov, who belongs to the Hawks in Putin's circle. – What does the EU sanction about Russia who wants to be a friend with the United States? he says, triumphant to HBL … It's precisely this signal that has worried many people in the West. However, most experts agree that there will be few concrete results from the summit.
It was not possible to lose sight – both were eager to meet.
Facts
Summit of Helsinki
Summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will be held Monday at the Presidential Palace in Helsinki.
The situation in Syria
Iran (Trump decided to leave the agreement on Iran in May).
Situation in Ukraine.
Continued from START-
[19659000] Donald Trump climbed Vladimir Putin and shook his hand impatiently.
Charges of Russian interference in US elections. Putin raised an index finger in an enthusiastic gesture. They had no interpreters – the handshake was hastily made in the corridors at the G20 meeting in Hamburg on July 7, 2017.
This was the first meeting Heads of State for two of the world's most powerful nuclear powers. many believe. It is remarkable in the documentary film Oliver Stones where Putin often answers Stones' questions without waiting for the translation. It includes everything to pronounce oral English as well as fluently, but rather avoids speaking the language in public. The only exception that he made was in 2007 when Russia requested the OS in Sochi and he liked that a deus ex machina come to Guatemala City to plead for Sochi to get OS 2014
Putin held a rather stiff but understandable English speech, where he neither smiled nor creased, but almost angry, insisted that Sochi was a "unique place". He gave dividends.
It was before the invasion of Georgia, the war in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea. The growing authoritarian movement of the Russian president had indeed warned the Western world, but in 2007, Russia was still a country that held joint summits with the EU and where foreign companies were investing. A country that managed to get the Winter Olympics 2014 and negotiated seriously with the EU on the visa waiver.
This is at a time when no one thought that a real estate magnetism leading television reality television could become president of the United States
Vladimir Vladimirovitj Putin
Born: October 7, 1952 Leningrad
Background: The parents who survived the Second World War were factory workers. Putin was the only child. He studied law and, after completing the degree, sought to enter the intelligence service of the KGB, where he worked until the fall of the Soviet Union.
1998 Head of the FSB (successor to the KGB).
1999 Prime Minister
2000-2008 President
2008-2012 Prime Minister
2012-2018 President
2018 President
As President, Putin was severely criticized for the restrictions on freedom of the press, political assassinations and electoral fraud. When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Russia lost its membership to the G8 and was sanctioned by economic sanctions, which are still in effect.
In fact, Putin had not imagined meeting Trump in Helsinki. He is proud of Russia and likes to show his country to foreigners. Given that Trump settles in New York, the US president would probably have been attributed to the magnificence of the Kremlin's gold rooms. That gave Putin a mental grip. But it also gave him the chance to concretely prove to Trump how he understood and supported Russia, according to Putin
Putin avoids coherent situations where he has to be drawn with some form of handicap. To speak English in public is such that to do private is another matter. We must not doubt that he will be able to chat with Trump without interpreting when they meet in Helsinki on Monday.
It's not a coincidence if both want a meeting between you, where only the performers are present. Both Trump and Putin have sent sympathy signals over the last few years.
Before Barack Obama the White House left one of his last steps to deport 35 Russian diplomats in punishment for Russian involvement in the elections – an accusation that the Kremlin has always denied. Everyone was waiting for a symmetrical answer. In Moscow, American diplomats have already packed their bags.
Instead, Putin invited American diplomats to dance around the Christmas tree in the Kremlin. He completely despised the Kremlin maxim that Russia always responds to an injustice with exactly the same measure. It was an ingenious move, typical of the chess player Putin
The message was clear: I gave priority to my relationship with the new president of the United States.
Putin did not care. Most of Trump's first year as president was to dismiss information about Russia's involvement in the US elections. Trump continued to write friendly tweets about Putin while sending Tomahawkmissiles to Syria and the US Congress introduced new sanctions against Russia.
Within the Kremlin, you have returned from triumphant optimism to ruin. Frustration in the political establishment has increased. When I met Aleksej Pushkov, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Council of the Russian Federation last year, he said that it was no longer interesting to discuss the relationship between Putin and Trump. The US establishment still has the last word
– Trump is a very lonely president. The US Congress and Senate destroyed everything that helped us end the Cold War, Pushkov said in an interview with HBL
. It is this circumstance that unites Putin and Trump. Their dissatisfaction with formal institutions, against principles that outweigh pragmatism. Since Trump took office, US and Russian leaders have repeatedly reported how tired they are at the facility that prevents two red men from doing business.
– The common opponents of Putin and Trump are partly the American establishment and the Western media. Both hate them. Trump – just like Russia – wants a business relationship between states, says Aleksandr Baunov former Russian diplomat who is now editor of the Russian site carnegie.ru of the American thinker Carnegie.
an obvious sympathy between the two presidents – who do not know each other – aroused astonishment. It has been speculated in which clips Putin has to Trump. But Baunov does not seem strange that two politicians who think the same way of each other. For example, Trump's annoyance on everything that he believes is being squeezed in the United States, he, according to Baunov, automatically automatically put Putin.
– Unlike allied NATO countries, Russia is not asking anything from the United States. The United States does not need resources to protect Russia. (19659014) In front of the NATO summit in Brussels, Trump disguised the other NATO members in tweets about how the United States is forced to pay to protect "Germany and other wealthy nations of NATO "against Russia. . According to Trump, nothing is gained in return, especially not in the trade.
What Trump likes is doing business – politically and economically. And just the economy is one of Putin's priorities for the meeting, according to Baunov.
– Putin is running a comprehensive economic program and he has to do business in Russia more than living room of poverty. Today, the buyers of securities consider that the Russian market is too risky. Russia has partially succeeded in replacing imported products with its own manufacturing, but the financial market does not work at all. The economy is still global, and investors want peace, says Baunov
However, he does not believe that Putin will try to persuade Trump to abolish the sanctions.
– Putin knows that Trump does not have such powers, it's the Congress that decides about sanctions. But the finance ministry decides how to implement them, and the White House has opportunities for influence. Putin can, for example, convince Trump to promise that there will be no new penalties.
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin
Born October 7, 1952 (65 years old) in Leningrad
Background: The parents who survived the Second World War, were factory workers. Putin was the only child. He studied law and, after completing the degree, sought to enter the intelligence service of the KGB, where he worked until the fall of the Soviet Union.
1998 Head of the FSB (successor to the KGB).
1999 Prime Minister
2000-2008 President
2008-2012 Prime Minister
2012-2018 President
2018 President
As President, Putin was severely criticized for the restrictions on freedom of the press, political assassinations and electoral fraud. When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Russia lost its membership of the G8 and was sanctioned by economic sanctions, still in force.
Single Baunov is the meeting itself significant in the transmission of signals about the role of Russia in the world.
– After the collapse of the Soviet Union, it has never happened that an American president waited so long to meet the Russian leader. This has been a bad sign for foreign investors. But now, Trump reports that it is acceptable to deal with a country like Russia. If the meeting goes well and does not end with a scandalous tweet of Trump, it's a success for Russia – even if there are no concrete results. It is enough for the two leaders to stand up and talk to each other well. Good luck to Putin telling Trump that at least there will be more sanctions, it's a great success, says Aleksandr Baunov.
Also Maria Lipman independent analysts in Moscow, says that it is the meeting itself which is the main thing. Not what Putin and Trump are coming. Lipman doubts, in fact, that they are coming to something.
– The current meeting is a very convincing demonstration that Russia is not isolated. We have the World Cup and the world is visiting us, Putin meets Trump. All this proves that Russia is part of the international community and that is essential for Putin.
Trump loves to brag and despise his meetings with other leaders is also a great benefit for Putin, according to Lipman.
– We know that Trump likes to declare great successes that he has accomplished things like none of his predecessors managed. For example, he did after the meeting with the leaders of North Korea, despite the fact that the concrete results indicated their absence. But it does not matter to Trump, he's always the best at all, everywhere.
Trump vanity is, in other words, a great benefit to Putin, says Lipman.
– If Trump, against the wishes of his advisor, decided that he wants to meet Putin, the meeting must be a success.
In the loyal troops of Putin the languages triumph. Sergej Markov Doctor of Political Science, has high expectations for the meeting. He heads the thought center "Institute of Political Research" in Moscow and is one of Putin's so-called personal messengers. Markov is famous for his radical and antisocial views and often accuses the Western world of Russian phobia. He believes that the meeting between Putin and Trump will be a great opportunity to "crush the anti-Russian front".
– Since 2014, we have an anti-Russian front in Europe. You will see cracks in it but it's still there. This disrupts Russia's economic development and is a problem for geopolitical stability. According to Markov, the Ukrainian government is dependent on it
According to him, Putin and Trump are now facing a severe blow on this front.
– Many have accepted sanctions in solidarity with the United States. Now, they are going to ask themselves: What should we do with sanctions if the United States wants to be friends with Russia? For leaders such as Viktor Orbán, there will be another reason to want to abolish them.
At the G7 meeting in Quebec City in June, Trump said in informal talks that he did not understand why Crimea would belong to Russia. Russian. He did not deny the statement afterwards. Sergey Markov, however, does not believe in any recognition.
– Trump will not recognize Crimea. This statement made him the most to send a positive signal to Putin. Crimea is the reason for all attacks against Putin. But Trump does not manage to convince the United States to recognize Crimea as Russian – and we do not need it either. What we want is to end the blockade against the citizens of Crimea. (Current credit cards do not work in Crimea, which has been banned from the SWIFT system since Russia occupied the region.)
Markov sees this as an opportunity. In particular, considering the meeting between Putin and Trump as a miscarriage for the Ukrainian government of today.
– Nobody in Europe really likes the Ukrainian government. And this meeting only confirms the futile to continue to support them, "says Markov, triumphing over the Crimea, where he stands when HBL calls
Personhood between Putin and Trump was speculated for a long time. that they like to show how much they are in agreement, they do not know it because they have not met much.Putine is famous for loving small lectures on his vision of the world – and probably also with Trump, says Aleksandr Baunov.
– Putin will try to anchor his worldview at Trump.He will tell him how he sees the Crimea, Ukraine, the Middle East and the Russian Political System
Sergey Markov, who introduces himself as Putin ideologically, agrees
– Putin will provide Trump tasks that the US intelligence service conceals for him. He is exposed to misinformation.
It is explicitly And what many in the West are afraid – that Putin fools the easy-led Trump. But Markov, who does not belong to Putin's deepest circle but meets him regularly, says no one knows how the two leaders will be together.
– Their personal relationships? Nobody knows. There are two alfahans, two main characters. Relationships between these characters can never be known in advance. They can become competitors or friends.
Maria Lipman says that Western concerns that Putin will ask Trump various concessions – for example, to recognize the Crimea or abolish sanctions – are excessive
– One of the main interests of Putin is to soften the penalties. But it's perfectly unthinkable that he's asking it openly. When Trump said that Russia should be offered to the G8, Putin replied that Russia has never left the G8 and that you can come back to us. He does not want to be in the weakest position. Moreover, it is the Congress that decides sanctions. Trump melt leather clothes to be able to promise gold and green forests, but that does not mean anything. And that's what Putin knows.
In the West, many consider that the sweet and vain Trump is a mouthful of bread for experienced and street Putin. Putin is a former KGB agent and has learned to deceive. But the people I meet in the foreign administration in Moscow are at least as worried as the unpredictable Trump will destroy the encounter with unexpected outbreaks.
The spokesperson of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zacharova invites the outside world to have realistic expectations of the meeting
– I would recommend to everyone to avoid the words "breakthroughs". I propose that we approach the meeting in a pragmatic and realistic way. It is high time that such a meeting take place. Many of the problems we are constantly talking about have been very important. It is better to have realistic expectations, said Zacharova during a press conference in Moscow in late June.
When I interviewed her in early May, her secretary suggested that we pass the questions on Trump. I did not have the impression that the question was somehow sensitive, but only that the Russian administration is tired of the subject. The disappointment in the Russian establishment of a president publicly killing Putin in his back but at the same time unable to establish an opposition to him is obvious.
Putin himself has always been extremely cautious about Trump. There is a widespread perception in the West that Putin had high hopes for the new president. But, in fact, while Putin is working on his American colleague, he has always been a great Trump master. Others opened jublat, as the editor-in-chief of the Kremlin-funded television channel, Margarita Simonjan and the leader of the right-wing party Vladimir Zjirinovsky . Putin himself was much quieter.
Maria Lipman does not believe that the meeting in Helsinki will mean problems for the Ukrainian government
– There are serious forces in the west who will never agree that the Ukraine sacrificed. I also do not think that Trump will have Putin to join a tougher policy against Iran. Russia and Iran are on the same side, and Iran is a multi-faceted country of self-sufficiency, with great potential to influence its immediate region.
Therefore, the outside world does not expect new agreements that will turn the world up and down this meeting, according to Lipman.
– In all likelihood, only vague statements will be made. You usually say that the devil is in the details, but the comments for this meeting will be rather: hell with the details!
The fact that Putin and Trump probably do not deal with details can, on the one hand, be considered a relief, for example, for Ukraine. On the other hand, it is also a factor of uncertainty. The lack of concrete agreements leaves room for his own interpretations
Putin has proved to be able to use every inch of free space that he can have.
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