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Brussels Danièle Nouy herself does not really believe that her time at the head of the ECB's banking supervision is low. There is so much "momentum" in her work that sometimes she almost believes "that it lasts forever" or at least "for a long time," said the Frenchwoman at her annual press conference in February.
But for the first chief supervisor of the bank The euro zone is definitely over by the end of the year. Renewable is not the five year term Nouys. Potential successors therefore position themselves slowly when the decision is made, which is not clear. Italy has reported an interest behind the scenes for the post, according to a report from EU diplomats. And it is quite conceivable that the government in Rome also gets the office.
Italy has three possible candidates, it was said in Brussels. All three have experience in European banking supervision. Andrea Enria has headed the European Banking Authority since 2011, which is currently moving from London to Paris because of Brexit. Eba's move to the ECB's expanded banking supervision would be a step forward for Enria, and her current role is undisputed.
The same goes for Ignazio Angeloni of Enria, according to Brussels. He has been on the board of the BCE Banking Supervision since 2014 and has played a major role in the development of still young authority. Angeloni is considered a close confidant of the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi.
The third possible candidate is Fabio Panetta. The deputy governor of the Italian Central Bank is also a member of the ECB's Banking Supervisory Board. In central bank circles, Panetta is considered by far the weakest candidate. In the past, the 59-year-old has too obviously represented the interests of the Italian banking sector. As head of the banking supervision of the ECB, it is therefore difficult to communicate with the other countries of the euro, my insider.
On the other hand, there are no reserves against Enria and Angeloni
Italy is for the Nouy The estate is also well positioned because next year , the country will lose at the same time three of the most important seats in the EU. The mandate of the head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, ends in November 2019. At the end of October, Federica Mogherini, head of the Italian diplomacy, will resign. And the president of the Italian Parliament, Antonio Tajani, must already go there in July 2019.
The third largest country in the EU, Italy, could well hope to get a replacement, at least one new headquarters of the EU, according to Brussels. That everyone agrees with this is certainly not sure yet. Above all, it is difficult to predict how Germany will position itself.
The Federal Ministry of Finance did not wish to issue an opinion on request. According to EU diplomats, the federal government would not like an Italian to resume banking supervision of the ECB. It is feared in Berlin that this recruitment decision is not good in the face of major problems in the Italian financial sector.
Italy is one of the countries with the largest number of banks, Cyprus, Greece and Portugal. have to fight. Recently, however, Italian financial institutions have been able to significantly reduce these bad debts. Until now, Italy is the only country to be interested in the estate of Nouy. Other states have convincing candidates to offer, but it is unlikely that they will send them into the race.
The director of the German ECB, Sabine Lautenschläger, would be perfectly suited for this post. But it is very unlikely that the federal government would suggest Lautenschläger. The reason for this is the big personal assault at the head of the EU next year. The European Central Bank, the European Commission, the European Parliament and the European Council are getting new presidents. The federal government, both seems safe, wants to put at least one.
German chances would worsen if Lautenschläger inherited Nouy. This option is therefore likely to be abandoned.
EU diplomats report that the federal government favors another woman at the head of banking supervision: Sharon Donnery, deputy governor of the Irish Central Bank. But nothing can come out of it. It is unlikely that Ireland proposes to name Donnery. The Dublin government has other priorities. He wants to place his central bank chief Philip Lane on the board of directors of the ECB
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Ireland has tried in vain: In May the minister Spanish Finance Luis de Guindos becomes Vice President of the European Central Bank. Lane went blank. Ireland wants to make a new attempt next year. Lane will succeed Peter Praet, Chief Economist of the ECB, who will have to leave his post in June 2019.
After Spain, Ireland will also receive a major position in the EU. Portugal can also be satisfied since the Minister of Finance, Mario Centeno, is the president of the Euro Group. Other states are waiting next year to access the main EU headquarters. This is especially true for the two largest members of the EU, Germany and France. The federal government is currently "intensively" preparing the decisions of EU staff for the coming year, according to Brussels.
There is not much time left for this. Already this autumn, a preliminary decision will be made as to who will become the next President of the European Commission. The families of the European parties elected their best candidates. Special attention is given to the European People's Christian Democratic Party (EPP). It is quite possible that the EPP will win the European elections again, and that Jean-Claude Juncker will also be the next head of the Commission.
The EPP holds its election meeting in November and potential candidates must register no later than October. Rumors circulate in Brussels and Berlin that Chancellor Angela Merkel wants to send a candidate to the race. Minister of Economy Peter Altmaier or Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen should be under discussion.
This would be the first time since the late 1950s that Germany is seeking the post of President of the European Commission. If Merkel opted for this path, another staff member would automatically fall: the change of Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann at the head of the European Central Bank.
It has long been considered certain that Merkel Weidmann wants to be at the head of the ECB. But the president of the Bundesbank has the reputation of being a pecuniary hawk – he is therefore relying on a tighter monetary policy. Therefore, it is difficult to negotiate with other countries of the euro. More importantly, Brussels insiders say that France is also interested in the ECB's presidency.
From the point of view of the French president, that makes sense. As Emmanuel Macron does not belong to any European party family, he has little influence on the selection of the best candidates and therefore the next president of the Commission. The President of the ECB is the most powerful figure of the EU alongside the President of the Commission. It would be logical for Macron to focus on it now.
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