Costs are eroding wages: employees have nothing of the boom – economy

The economic outlook has been good for some time. According to federal economic forecasts, real growth of 2.4% is expected this year – a value that has not been achieved since 2014. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 2.4% in June, against 3% a year earlier.

And given the good state of the labor market, federal forecasters have lowered their estimate of the average unemployment rate from 2.9% to 2.6% for the current year. Conditions so favorable for significant salary increases.

In addition, the two previous pay rounds were disappointing from the point of view of the employees. According to UBS figures, an average real wage increase of a mere 0.2% in 2017 should be even leaner this year. In addition, the inflation rate follows a steady but moderate trend, with an average annual rate of 0.7 to 0.8% in 2018.

Abandonment of General Wage Increases [19659002] For Daniel Lampart, chief economist of the Swiss Confederation of Trade Unions, is also clear that the above aspects in the next round of wages "should play a role". "An important topic is also the adjustment of inflation," Lampart adds. The union federation wants to present its wage demands in September.

It is obvious that employers warn against too high expectations. "Even though the economy is improving today, it is an illusion to believe that the floodgates will open in the fall for greater wage increases in the United States. the whole country, "said Valentin Vogt, president of the Swiss Association of Employers. This is contradicted by the fact that the general upward trend in wages has been declining for a long time and is increasingly focusing on individual adjustments.

Nevertheless, Vogt suggests that the margins of employers in wage bargaining have increased over last year. This applies, for example, to providers of financial services, medical technology or information technology, where the shortage of skilled workers is increasingly noticeable. "On the other hand, there are sectors such as retail or the hotel industry, which feel virtually nothing from the economic boom," adds the employer president.

Even in the industry as in the mechanical and electrical industry The business situation varies considerably depending on the company. Hans Hess, president of the Swissmem Swiss Association, describes the development as "very positive for several months". Nevertheless, by the end of 2017, 15% of the companies in the sector would still have a loss of operation. According to Valentin Vogt, the proportion of companies that must now display their deferred replacement investments after years of strong pressure on margins is even greater.

But not only employers, but also bank economists are showing a cautious attitude towards the future payroll of the fall. "It will probably take good economic data for a while, until wage growth starts," says Claude Maurer, head of Swiss macro analysis at Credit Suisse. "First of all, this will be the case in the United States or Germany, then only will change the Swiss incident." Maurer is for the coming year a nominal nominal wage increase of 1 percent, so after taking into account a real plus 0,

Significant increase in real wages since the financial crisis

Daniel Kalt, Swiss chief economist of UBS, admits that the two previous salary cycles have proved "rather weak" in terms of purchasing power. This was partly due to the consequences of the shock of the Swiss franc (following the National Bank's abandonment of the minimum exchange rate of the euro in January 2015). On the other hand, still positive inflation rates would have further reduced the modest increase in nominal wages.

Nevertheless, Kalt doubts that "it is justified to say that the time has finally come to realize massive increases in real wages". The UBS economist highlights the evolution of Swiss real wages over the eight years following the 2008/09 financial crisis: with an average annual increase of 1.4%, it is the best years since the late eighties. The reason for this was the extremely low inflation rates in the last decade; Between 2012 and 2016, annual inflation rates slipped into negative territory. Thus, according to Kalt, modest increases in nominal wages have been "improved". From the point of view of Alexis Bill-Körber, director of macroeconomic research at BAK Economics, a Basel-based economics researcher, there are arguments for wage increases of the order of 2% or more. this year. His main argument is that the low productivity gains of the economy – measured as a nominal gross domestic product in relation to full-time equivalent employment – limited the possibilities for wage increases as a result. . For 2016 and 2017, Bill-Körber estimates productivity growth at 1% and should be similar in 2018 as well. Meanwhile, BAK 's expert is optimistic for next year: with an expected average wage increase of 1.7 percent, a real wage increase of at least 0.7 percent. one hundred should remain after deduction of inflation.

(Tages-Anzeiger)

created: 11.07.2018, 20:21