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Netflix has been one of the biggest stars of the stock market so far this year. With its conclusion, however, Silicon Valley's streaming service triggers all but euphoria: the number of subscribers – by far the most important parameter for investors – has only increased by 5 to 130 million and is behind the forecasts.

"We had a strong but not a very good second quarter," said Netflix CEO Reed Hastings. Above all, business outside the United States is disappointing. There are now only 4.5 subscribers added, while in the previous two periods, the average was 5.9 million in each case

zoom Source: Netflix

Prospects provoke also disappointments. For the third quarter, Hastings expects an increase of 5 million additional customers. On the other hand, analysts expected about $ 6 million

. This mixed news is not used by investors, Netflix had exceeded expectations for the last four quarters in a row. The harder the reaction is. The Valoren collapsed Monday night after the publication of the 14% results. On paper, the company lost about $ 25 billion in market value in one fell swoop

Rivalry with HBO

The key question is how to proceed future growth. Founded more than 20 years ago as a DVD shipping service, Netflix has become the market leader in streaming movies and TV series and celebrates its success with home-grown productions like "House of Cards", " Stranger Things "and" The Crown ".

This is sometimes reflected in the fact that this year, for the first time, the company has surpassed its HBO rival in Emmy nominations for the best TV shows.

Expansion abroad is particularly important. Since the autumn of 2014, it is also present in Switzerland. Official data do not exist. According to the eMarketer Research Institute, more than 70 million people are expected to use Netflix in Western Europe in 2018, with a subscriber often shared by several households.

The most important markets are the United Kingdom and Germany with about 15 million. ), France (6) and Italy (5). "In Switzerland, it should be about a million," estimates Michael Pachter of investment house Wedbush Securities

zoom Source: eMarketer

From a point of view second quarter figures seem to be passable. Sales rose 40% to $ 3.9 billion from the same period last year, and earnings increased $ 70 million to $ 380 million, or 85 cents per share. However, Netflix must invest heavily to accelerate growth.

Huge Wallet

$ 8 billion is planned for the sole production of content in 2018, which requires significant leverage. The company burned nearly $ 560 million in cash in the second quarter and is expecting negative cash flow of $ 3-4 billion for the full year.

zoom Source: YCharts

The stock market is high The liquid wear has been neglected for a long time. Even after the failure of the start of the week, Netflix shares are up nearly 100% this year, the group being even close to big bucks like Disney, Comcast and 21st Century Fox in terms of capitalization. just under $ 150 billion. ] “/> Source: S & P Capital IQ

They have long underestimated Netflix, but now a massive consolidation process is underway in the US media sector. This will have consequences: "We are expecting more competition from the merger of AT & T and Time Warner as well as the merger of Fox with Disney or Comcast," warns Hastings, the boss of Netflix [19]. Disney, for example, is launching its own streaming service in 2019 as Amazon, Apple and YouTube are entering the market. Hastings expects growing pressure from international competitors such as ProSieben and Salto in Europe

In this context, Netflix's shares are at a very high level. On the basis of estimates for the next twelve months, the price / earnings ratio is greater than 100, far exceeding not only the securities of other media groups such as Disney (15) and Comcast (14), but also IT (Facebook) and Google (25). "All those who buy Netflix at this high price will bet, in principle, that the company can double the number of customers and at the same time the price per subscription," says analyst Pachter, the largest Netflix. Skeptics heard on Wallstreet. "With increasing competition, it's getting harder and harder," he says.

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