Rock disappointed in the study of lung cancer | News, analysis and recommendations on brokerage firms | Health of the company

The Roche Pharmaceutical Company ( ROG 232.35 -1.02% ) presented the preliminary results of a much-awaited study on the treatment of lung cancer patients and disappointed. The Impower132 pivotal study was one of eight studies this year, which examined the benefits of the drug Tecentriq in anti-cancer immunotherapy.

Profit sharing certificates initially lost 1.4% at the beginning of the session. The study was virtually the last glimmer of hope that would show that Roche still has ground on competition in this Merck treatment area ( MRK 62.94 0.66% ) ( MRK 85.22 -0.33% ) & Co and Bristol-Myers ( BMY 56 , 88 0.44% ) Squibb can do well. To date, the group still has only niche markets for cancer immunotherapy

The greatest potential for lung cancer

The results of Impower132 show that the combination of Tecentriq and chemotherapy could stop the progression of the disease. However, the second major goal of the group – improving survival (overall survival, OS) – did not provide statistically significant results.

The study was also most likely to be compared to two Merck studies when it came to the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer, where is the greatest potential for market for this disease.

Merck convinces with better data

Americans have recently presented impressive data at specialized conferences. For example, in comparison with the previous standard treatment with chemotherapy alone, a reduction in the risk of progression of the disease by half and an increase in the chances of survival of 50% have also been demonstrated.

With that, Merck set the bar very high. Although Impower132 is maintained for the Group to provide more detail, the probability has now dramatically dropped that Roche can still make significant progress here. Data for the probability of key survival are not expected until 2019.

Low probability of success

"We believe that Roche has now reached a point where it must admit that despite the first Michael Nawrath, analyst at Zürcher Kantonalbank (ZKB) writes: [Stefan Schneider] von Vontobel ( VONN 72.75

] 19659003] -0.41% ) had already lowered his prediction, no longer sees the need to further adapt. "The analyst of Baader Helvea, Bruno Bulic, who had previously been optimistic about CHF 5 Tecentriq's leading non-small cell lung cancer sales billion, has now lowered its forecast to CHF 1 billion.However, it continues to expect CHF 2.7 billion for small cell lung cancer and breast cancer.

Biosimilars Market Entry

Up To That would be 7% of sales. In addition to the drug against multiple sclerosis, Ocrevus probably only the anticancer drug Perjeta in this dimension.

These three drugs should at least offset the predictable losses in major previous sales drivers after analysts' expectations in four years. The three major multi-billion dollar drugs Avastin, Rituxan and Herceptin are either losing their patent protection or have already lost their patents, as Roche battles the entry into the market of biomedical imitation products.

Roche recently sold Tecentriq in the first quarter of 2018, just 0, 14 billion dollars. Merck, on the other hand, reached $ 1.46 billion with its assets Keytruda and $ 1.51 billion with Opdivo by Bristol-Myers Squibb.