The US economy is hot | Financial Markets Analysis, Economic Cycle and Monetary Policy | Macro markets

(Reuters) The US economy grew faster in the spring than in nearly four years. Between April and June, gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 4.1%, the Commerce Department said Friday. In the first quarter, there was only one more than 2.2%. US President Donald Trump talked about big data. The momentum was generated by private consumption, which accounts for more than two-thirds of GDP. In addition, exports have risen to the highest level since the end of 2013. This is also due to the global trade dispute that the United States has started. For exporters, supplies were favored in order to avoid retaliatory tariffs on China – for example on soybeans.

Trump wants to drive growth with his drastic tax reform for the entire year at least three percent. After the first half of the year, there is already an increase of 3.1%.

Thanks to the good situation on the job market, the mood of buying Americans hardly surprises. After all, they benefit from lower taxes and spend 4.0% more than last quarter, extrapolated to the year. Tax reform provides lower tax rates for businesses and lower taxes for the rich. Business investment, however, lost momentum. This could increase if the tariff dispute worsens. The chief economist of Bankhaus-Lamp, Alexander Krüger, expects that uncertainty in business will spread in the second half of the year. "GDP growth rates can remain solid over the next few quarters – otherwise Trump salted the soup with its punitive tariffs," said chief economist Thomas Gitzel of Liechtenstein VP Bank ( VPBN 191.4 -1.03% ) .

After Trump's recent meeting with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, there were signs of relaxation. However, Trump continues to hit China with ever higher prices.

To reduce the risk of overheating the economy, the US Federal Reserve is determined to further tighten interest rates. Economists predict that Fed chief Jerome Powell will return twice this year. Currently, the key interest rates range between 1.75 and 2.0%. Recently, Trump broke with the tradition of US presidents and publicly criticized the politically independent Fed for interest rate cuts.

Trump's reprimand comes at an untimely time for the Fed. Because for the central bank now the difficult issue in the center, where is the summit, said economist Commerzbank Bernd Weidensteiner. "The Fed must answer the question of when will it stop raising interest rates." Next week, she decides again on her monetary policy.