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The MLB project ran from Monday to Wednesday. At the end of the process, rumor began to circulate that Craig Kimbrel would be signing with the Cubs. Twenty-four hours later, Dallas Keuchel agreed with the Braves.
With this, the commercial market is opened more broadly.
The teams deploy so much resources and attention on the draft that they can not focus entirely on the trades. And this year, two accomplished pitchers remained free agents until June, preventing interested clubs from acting boldly for a newbie or a substitute via trading until they know it. if they land in Keuchel or Kimbrel for money.
Nevertheless, the sentiment persists that it could be an unorthodox business season with more transactions in June or early July rather than a fiasco for the 31st of July. July. So many teams in the NL see themselves as contenders and therefore want to acquire players as quickly as possible to add victories to the playoffs. In addition, it will be the first year of non-waiver trading permitted in August. Clubs will need to ensure that their major transactions are completed by July 31st.
When I solicited the former executives of baseball operations after the draft / Keuchel / Kimbrel, I felt that most of the transactions would take place on schedule. Nevertheless, the teams are now in transaction time mode. So, what is the instrument?
1. This log NL: The Phillies traded against Jay Bruce on the second day of June, and Keuchel and Kimbrel also joined the NL teams. The weekend started with nine clubs with at least a 20% chance of reaching the playoffs (FanGraphs) and only two who were clearly non-candidates (Giants, Marlins).
The post-season run of the NL is divided into two different layers: the Dodgers and all the others. Los Angeles will waltz for its seventh consecutive divisional crown. The other four places in the playoffs will likely be contested by several teams. The volume / proximity combo should encourage many exchanges.
2. The great heads of division: The Dodgers, Astros and Twins have entered the weekend with two-digit split benefits. They do not need to act recklessly. They could wait closer to the deadline to ensure that the injury or the decline in performance does not open a need that does not exist at present. Nevertheless, it is expected that the Dodgers and Twins will at least try to improve the pen and that relays such as Will Smith and Tony Watson of the Giants, Brad Hand of the Indians, Ken Giles of the Blue Jays and Shane Greene of the Tigers getting.
The Astros will probably need a rotating infusion. Madison Bumgarner is in her year of walking and is exchanged. The Blue Jays, Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman, and the Indians, Trevor Bauer, free after 2020, are acquired. The same goes for Matt Boyd of the Tigers and Mike Minor of the Rangers.
3. Clubs that need more time: Mets and nationals, in particular, need an additional four to six weeks to determine their direction. They have enough talent to compete in the wild card races of the NL East and enough dysfunction to continue underperforming. Unlike clubs with a similar record, like the Diamondbacks, which would give priority to the future if contenders claimed Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray or David Peralta, the Mets and Nats want to try to win this year.
If the Mets continue to struggle, they will almost have to trade Zack Wheeler (unless they are willing to offer him the qualifying offer of $ 18 million and to accept compensation in the draw) and will have to take into account Noah Syndergaard, whom they escaped during the low season. The Yankees and Padres both tried to catch Syndergaard in the winter, and outside club officials claimed that San Diego was ready to part with Chris Paddack as part of a program for Syndergaard.
The Nats, if they become sellers, have Sean Doolittle closer and should think about the third – baseman of the year running, Anthony Rendon, if they can not negotiate an overtime. Washington played the game with another Scott Boras client, Bryce Harper, and got only one shot at the draft instead of being bold, having traded it against the Astros or the Indians last year. .
4. The game changers: There are often surprises on time. I guess the Nats will keep Max Scherzer and the Francisco Lindor Indians, but they are players to watch.
Scherzer is free after 2021, and if the Nats want to blow up the recently disappointing past and take charge for the near future, that is the avenue. But the property probably does not have the courage to do it. Meanwhile, Indian ownership has already indicated that it is unlikely that we will be able to afford a long-term deal with Lindor, who would be free after 2021. And as one NL official said: "C is sad to see the reality of a market like this, but [the Indians] have to be definitive and extend it or exchange it, because if they wait beyond the off season, they lose value in the market, just like Lindor. "
5. The aggressors: The Padres had less than a 20% chance of participating in the playoffs, but the talent evaluators considered the teams as a team capable of buying if that allowed them to improve their chances this year and at the same time. to come up.
"Their system is so deep that they can be used by anyone, and I think they have a candidate core to add," said a NL executive.
An AL official said about the Twins: "They're almost 30 years away from the playoffs. They know that they are in the playoffs. I can see them becoming really aggressive with players who could help in October. "
NL manager: "The Phillies need to know that the Braves will not leave and that they will probably improve in the next few years. [The Phillies] have a chance this year and have to keep trying to win the [NL East]. "
A NL official: "Rays have almost had Kimbrel, which should reveal their state of mind. They know that there are not many seasons in which the Red Sox and the Yankees could be vulnerable. They have been good since last season. They are not a fluke. And they have the kind of deep system to play for no matter who [in the market]. "
LA leaders on the Yankees: "They have been more disciplined, but they have not won for a long time for them. [since 2009] and saw the Red Sox win a bunch. I think one of the safest bets on trade deadlines is that the Yankees get help in rotation. "
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