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Patrick Smith / Getty Images. Pictured: WR loaders Jalen Guyton.
- The Las Vegas Raiders face the Los Angeles Chargers in what should be a shootout on Monday Night Football.
- Our expert sees a perfect low buying opportunity with this wide accessory from Chargers.
Sean Koerner, our director of predictive analytics, highlights his favorite player prop for every slate and prime-time game throughout the 2021 NFL season. He has an all-time high of 400-299-4 (57%) on NFL bets which he tracked in the Action app.
Jalen Guyton Over 18.5 receiving yards
Monday night’s football game tonight is set to be a shootout and involves two of the top three teams in terms of average passing yards per game. This offers a sneaky ‘buy low’ opportunity on Jalen Guyton.
Guyton is expected to run around 70% of Justin Herbert’s drop backs tonight. Considering his very low target rate (8.2%), it is clear that he is Herbert’s fifth option in the passing game. However, that number is likely to decline to around 10-11% in the future, and I expect it to hit three targets in tonight’s game. Anytime Guyton sees a target it’s usually due to the defense’s over-engagement with Keenan Allen / Mike Williams, leaving Guyton wide open with room to chase after the capture.
According to Next Gen Stats, Guyton led the league with a 5.7 average split across his five targets in Week 1. Plus, that resulted in 8.3 expected yards after the catch in his three receptions. I would translate this as follows: When Guyton sees a target it is typically because he is wide open and he should be able to convert it to a big gain. I’m projecting Guyton closer to 23.5 yards tonight and I feel – due to his recent two-game stretch (2/13/0 and 0/0/0) – the market is providing us with a bit of value here. I would bet up to 21.5.
To take: Jalen Guyton Over 18.5 yards per shot (-115) at FanDuel
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