[ad_1]
The question is not why the Chinese government took control of Baoshang Bank – a small commercial bank in Inner Mongolia – but rather why the government told us that it had taken control of the bank and what this rare disclosure meant for the Chinese banking system as a whole.
The takeover of Baoshang is the first public the Chinese government took control of a Chinese bank since the country's financial crisis in the late 1990s, but this is certainly not the first takeover in general. Over the past two decades, the government has repeatedly recapitalized troubled banks or forced them to merge with state-owned banks or other trusted companies. When he did that, however, he did it quietly.
This is what makes this Baoshang situation so strange. The fact that regulators are injecting fear into the market.
"One of the most unusual aspects of the Baoshang tragedy is that it has been reported, but the high-level authorities have publicly worried about the possibility that there will be banks and institutions that "disappear", "J Capital Research, a China-focused investment company, wrote in a note to customers.
"This is a peculiar situation for an economy that claims to experience growth of 6.5%, average non-performing loans rates of less than 1.5% and dynamic construction and real estate markets." ".
What a fool believes
As J Capital notes, if you buy the statistics, the Chinese financial system should not be a problem.
In the same way, if you look at the latest figures from Baoshang, it should not really be a problem either. The bank has not released an annual report since 2016, but at the time, it was posting an unproductive loan rate of 1.68 percent, according to the Nomura investment bank. That's an increase of 1.41% a year ago – so it's not that great on paper, especially with assets of $ 60.8 billion and deposits of $ 27 billion.
This certainly does not seem to be a bank that presents "credit risks", as the Chinese government has indicated in its takeover decision.
But there are other special things, and perhaps just as important, to note about Baoshang.
- It was part of a massive conglomerate called Tomorrow Group, controlled by a fund manager named Xiao Jianhua.
- In 2017, Xiao, who was managing money for the Chinese elite, was arrested for fraud and embezzlement in Hong Kong. Right after, Baoshang's credit rating was lowered.
- China has cracked down on similar large financial conglomerates (such as Anbang Insurance) in recent years. These are what are called "gray rhinos" which, in the opinion of the government, are so large and opaque that they can hide problems.
- One source told Chinese economic publication Caixin that Baoshang was operating as a "cash machine" for Tomorrow Holdings, and another said it had helped Tomorrow raise at least $ 21.7 billion in financing. through dark practices.
Does this acquisition concern the parent company of Baoshang? Or the balance sheet of Baoshang? Or is it about messages addressed to the Chinese financial sector through moral hazard?
Why not a little of the three?
A wise man has the power to reason
If the takeover of Baoshang concerns the parent company, consider this as a continuation of the unraveling of the opaque assets of the "gray rhino" conglomerate that the government has been undertaking for some time. It is therefore not a kind of warning about a potentially cataclysmic financial event.
If it's Baoshang's record, then consider it as another example of the most dangerous tension in the Chinese financial system riddled with debt. For the system to continue to grow, banks must continue to give more and more credit, but all this credit will not be good. As emphasized by Capital J, Baoshang "is involved in thousands of lawsuits to repay outstanding loans, with interest of up to 18%, or 24% with penalties, usually secured by parallel agreements".
What this tells us is that one should not trust the balance sheets of Chinese banks. On paper (at least the most recent available to the public / media), Baoshang is in good health. The government recognizes that papers lie – a dangerous notion to introduce in a country where economists are already questioning basic data on gross domestic product.
Finally, if it is a moral hazard, then perhaps the regulators are asking the market to prepare for certain losses. As Nomura pointed out, "the regulators do not declare that they would guarantee all the obligations of the Baoshang Bank," adding that depositors and creditors with more than 50 million yuan of assets in the bank " will have to negotiate with the OPA Task Force for reimbursement. "
Before preparing for the trade war between China and the United States, remember that the Chinese economy has been slowing for some time. At the end of last year and early this year, policymakers were legitimately worried and Xi Jinping warned for months that things would become more difficult economically. Commercial war or not, the deleveraging of the financial system was going to be painful for China.
So, maybe policy makers are telling the market that there are too many balls in the air and that some of them will have to touch the ground. The fact is that at least they let us know.
[ad_2]
Source link