The DRC faces an upsurge in violence unless an agreement is reached with Kabila

Andrew Edward Tchie University of Essex

Amidst a new wave of civil unrest
in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), the international community
must question his confidence in President Joseph Kabila to achieve
stability in a turbulent region. He has been at the helm since he's taken
President in 2001 after the assassination of his father, Laurent.
The young Kabila ruled for a transitional period until in 2006, before
win two elections.

He is now in his seventh year of what should have been just five
years of his second term and is constitutionally prohibited from standing
again. But he remained in office after the end of his term at the end
2016. This is because the country is waiting for a long delayed election. The delay has
triggered deadly manifestations.

While Kabila can not legally run for a third term, the opposition fears that he will not do it. Fears among opposition and church leaders have been heightened by Kabila's appointment of three new judges to the constitutional court. Two are well-known allies.

But Kabila has no legitimacy and his authority disintegrates. Yes
the elections are delayed again there is a real possibility that central
Africa will slip again into violent conflict. Armed violence
is likely to be bloodier than in the past because of the number of
fragmented localized groups to grab their share in one of the

If the international community wants to avoid another major armed conflict
conflict over African content – in addition to
armed conflict in Libya, Nigeria, Somalia and South Sudan –
necessary to negotiate with Kabila for his own peaceful exit before the
country slips back into a large-scale armed conflict.

Deterioration of the situation

Following Kabila's refusal to cede power, the security situation
it's deteriorated. At least 10 of Congo's 26 provinces are struggling
of armed conflict.
This forced more than two million people to flee their homes, 800,000
the children. The total number of internally displaced persons is estimated at 4.5 million, while refugees are flocking to Uganda, Tanzania, Angola and Zambia.

The security situation in the DRC is disastrous. With the intensification of violence in Kasai and in the east of the country, the escalation of conflicts in southeastern Congo is expected to continue.

It is estimated that more than 70 rebel groups operate in the country. They are all involved in various ways in skirmishes with the army or, more commonly, in attacks against civilians. This in turn creates a tangle of ethnic and tribal grievances that warlords can exploit

. In 2012, the M23 rebel movement briefly took the city of Goma. They were eventually thrown by the Congolese army, backed by the UN. But the current violence in Kasai threatens to eclipse even this disaster. In August 2017, for example, the "dead cities" movements caused a significant portion of the country's urban population to go on strike.

According to reports, more than 3,000 people have been killed since the beginning of 2017. More than 33,000 Kasai residents have fled to Angola. It has been suggested that the Bana Mura – a government-sponsored militia – was behind the violence.

Last year, major fighting took place between the Twa and Bantu people in Tanganyika Province. And as the year entered its last quarter, Uvira, on the outskirts of Lake Tanganyika, was the scene of fighting between the rebel Yakutumba militia and government forces. Government forces fled and rebels took the town if the Pakistani peacekeepers had not repulsed them.

Despite the failure of the Yakutumba militia to take Uvira, this recalled the level of dissatisfaction the end of the Second Congo War in 2003. The rise of rebels operating in the East means that violence could spread in Kivu and beyond.

Uncertain Times

In 2017, the presidential and legislative elections were delayed an agreement with Kabila. The political crisis was further complicated by the death of longtime opposition leader Étienne Tshisekedi later in the year.

The election scheduled for December this year is unlikely to bring together the different groups or solve the explosion of violence in the country. The most likely candidate with the perceived ability to bring together different groups is Moses Katumbi. He managed to bring opposition parties together in a coalition supporting his candidacy – an impressive feat in a country as fragmented as the Congo.

He also has by far the best plan to reconcile the country, which the country needs for peace to be fragile. But the country's Attorney General recently announced that Katumbi may not be eligible for presidential elections because he has held Italian citizenship from October 2000 to January 2017.

According to the Congolese Constitution, its nationals can not hold dual nationality. regain their citizenship if they take a foreign nationality. But this provision is loosely applied and many prominent politicians are said to have a second nationality

Kabila's time in government has shown an inability to bring together different ethnic groups and control the growth of dissatisfied rebel groups. This is despite the fact that the DRC has the largest peacekeeping force in the UN, with 18,000 peacekeepers, trying to impose some measure of calm in the east. from the country.

Botswana President Mokgweetsi Masisi said that he hoped to see Kabila pledge to step down at the end of the year. More African leaders must recognize the seriousness of the crisis and put pressure on Kabila through existing African Union mechanisms

Andrew Edward Tchie, Counselor for Conflict and Politics on Syria, Senior Visiting Research. Health, visiting scholar at PRIO, and PhD candidate at the University of Essex., University of Essex

This article was published at the # 39, originally from The Conversation. Read the original article.