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A source of confusion is that the IRB is not a single plan at all. A visitor to his website would click in vain to find a detailed explanation of his goals. There is no model of the kind that Chinese leaders like: billions of dollars to spend, kilometers of roads to build or a new port capacity to build at such and such a date.
Chinese maps show the belt and road as lines that trace the roads of ancient "silk roads" that crossed Eurasia and the seas between China and Africa (see Briefing) . That was the original vanity, but nowadays, China is talking about the IRB as if it 's been a global project. The rhetoric has expanded to include a "Pacific Silk Road", a "Silk Road on Ice" that runs through the Arctic Ocean and a "Digital Silk Road" in cyberspace
. idea is welcome. Billions of dollars worth of roads, railways, ports and power plants are needed in countries of Asia, Africa and Europe. The money and expertise of China could be of great help in spreading wealth and prosperity.
China says everyone can participate. Countries like Azerbaijan and Georgia, which will immensely benefit from better connections with the world. One of China's goals is to enhance security on its western flank by helping the countries of Central Asia prosper, which, he hopes, prevents them from becoming hotbeds of Islamist terrorism. . Everyone would benefit too.
But there are worries. The IRB is linked to the growing cult around Mr. Xi. State media call it "the path of Xi Jinping". It has become a shortcut for Chinese overseas aid, state-led investments abroad and for the "high-powered diplomacy with Chinese characteristics" of Mr. Xi. China urges other countries to praise the IRB so that their words can be relayed back home as propaganda. Few Chinese dare to offer open criticism;
Citizens of countries hosting IRB projects may come to regret the enthusiasm of their governments. Like all Chinese species, billions of BRI come without worrying about human rights or corruption. Indeed, the terms are often surrounded by secrecy, raising fears that local politicians may benefit more than their people. Projects tend to require the use of a lot of Chinese labor. The IRB countries are likely to accumulate dangerous amounts of debt, some of whom fear that China will have a strategic grip on them. Pakistan, one of the most important countries of the IRB, has just held an election during which candidates competed to take ownership of Chinese investments; Still, the debts are so important that, shortly thereafter, Pakistan will probably need an IMF bailout.
Then there are possible risks to safety. In his metaphorical flights, Mr. Xi sometimes speaks of his belt and his route as a single line of communication, a "road of peace." But what would happen if the Chinese navy took advantage of ports like Hambantota? This was picked up by a Chinese state-owned company after the Sri Lankan government struggled to repay the debts it had accumulated to build it. Military planners worry that China may develop a series of such spaces that its ships could use to extend their reach well beyond China's shores.
Analysts in Asia and the West believe that China wants to move America as Asian hegemony. The IRB could end up advancing this plan even though it's not its goal. The Chinese raw maps show the belt and road that cross a disputed territory, including the bitterly disputed waters of the South China Sea where China has built strongholds on the reefs.
Some Asian countries, including India and Vietnam countries share their discomfort. Last year, US Secretary of Defense James Mattis said, "No nation should put itself in a position to dictate [BRI]". In January, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, warned that the BIS "can not be the paths of a new hegemony that will make countries that they cross vassal states". He added: "The ancient silk roads were never purely Chinese. to be shared and they can not be one way. "
Keep These Signs American
What Should the World Do About the IRB? To begin with, keep some perspective. Even if China hopes to use it as a political tool to repel Western influence, Beijing will face difficulties, because projects go wrong, debts go bad and people become more and more hostile to the Chinese presence.The story suggests that the simple distribution of money alone will not pave the way for another Pax Sinica
The world can also use its influence to make the IRB more beneficial. Even China's billions can not finance everything on the supply side.The money from the West, from the European Union and institutions such as the World Bank and the IMF should be lent in accordance with international standards – including years, environmental guarantees, public procurement and debt sustainability. As long as they are good projects, let China include them in the IRB if she wants to.
Security is the last. The way to appease the fears of the IRB's threat to the balance of power is not to thwart China's efforts, much less to unleash a trade war or to withdraw the armed forces. Americans from Asia, as sometimes seems to think President Donald Trump. On the contrary, the balance of risks and benefits of the IRB is related to the US commitment in Asia. If the United States is engaged, the world can mitigate the dangers of the IRB and reap the benefits. If not, the risks will outweigh the benefits. The IRB is yet another argument for America to remain in Asia.
