Africa Risk Outlook for the Climate Prediction Center from 29 November to 5 December 2018 – Kenya



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  • Convergence of the monsoon moved south to Kenya and Tanzania last week.

  • The region experiencing abnormal drought has spread to other parts of Angola, Zambia and Zimbabwe.

1) The seasonal rains that started late, followed by irregular rainfall in October and November, resulted in water deficits in southeastern Ethiopia, the Jubba and Shabelle river basins in the south of Somalia and Kenya.

2) Poorly distributed rainfall since September, as well as unusually high daytime temperatures, have resulted in early season drought conditions and degraded crop conditions in parts of southern South Africa and Lesotho.

3) Several consecutive weeks of low rainfall resulted in abnormal drought and degraded soils in the central and western parts of Madagascar.

4) Irregular and below-normal rainfall to start the monsoon season in Angola,
The Caprivi Strip in Namibia, western Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana and South Africa resulted in poor vegetation health and potential negative effects on crop activities.

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