Brexit Could Cause Thousands Of Heart Attacks And Additional Strokes

A new study suggests that Brexit could lead to thousands of deaths from heart attack and stroke as a result of rising prices for fruits and vegetables.

Researchers from Imperial College London and the University of Liverpool have examined how different results of Brexit, ranging from an agreement to a non-agreement, would result in increased costs for fruits and vegetables imported, which would reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease.

The results, published this week in the journal BMJ Open, reveal that many post-Brexit trade scenarios would reduce fruit and vegetable consumption in England, a collapse in the absence of agreement being the most damaging for public health, consumption and about 12,400 additional deaths in England between 2021 and 2030.

The United Kingdom is heavily dependent on imports of fresh produce. In 2017, in the United Kingdom, 84% of fruit and 43% of vegetables were imported.

"We know that about half of English families eat the recommended amounts of fruits and vegetables. And we're pretty confident because the price of these items is rising, people are even less likely to buy them, "said Anthony Laverty, research fellow at the Public Health Policy Evaluation Unit at l & # 39; Imperial.

The World Health Organization advises people to eat an average of five servings of fruits and vegetables a day. Only 27% of adults aged 19 to 64 and 35% of those over 65 reach the recommended daily doses.

"Staying within the European Union appears as the best option to protect public health," said Martin O. Flaherty, professor of epidemiology at the University of Liverpool, who led jointly the study.

The researchers said that the scenarios they modeled are not exhaustive and do not reflect all the Brexit scenarios under discussion.

The team used data from the World Trade Organization and the UK Tax and Revenue Service to assess the impact of different Brexit scenarios. The models included a free trade agreement with the EU and third countries; a free trade agreement with the EU; and a Brexit without agreement without a new trade agreement.

All scenarios implied an increase in commercial tariffs and transaction costs, additional costs attributable to increased border controls, which the United Kingdom would have to pay for imported products when it left the EU.

In all Brexit modeled scenarios, prices increased. For example, in a Brexit without agreement, the cost of bananas increased by about 17%, citrus fruits by 14% and tomatoes by 15%.

No agreement would have the biggest impact by far, Laverty said, with the decrease in fruit and vegetable consumption contributing to more than 4,110 additional deaths on average of coronary artery disease and 8,290 strokes between 2021 and 2030.

The results are consistent with previous research on Brexit and can not be considered a "fear of the project," said Laverty.

"We started the process over a year ago and tried to be as judgmental as possible. We do not have a particular opinion ourselves, "he said.