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OMAR S MAHMOOD AND MERESSA K DESSU
The Horn of Africa could see the end of current cycles of direct and indirect conflict.
After 20 years of hostility, Ethiopia and Eritrea have resumed diplomatic relations. On July 8, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed made a historic visit to Asmara, the capital of Eritrea, greeted by enthusiastic supporters. A week later, the Eritrean President, Isaias Afwerki, went to Ethiopia, where he was greeted by large crowds
But the restart of good relations is not important for these two countries . After the separation of Eritrea from Ethiopia in 1991, a border dispute contributed to two years of armed conflict from 1998, resulting in the deaths of 100,000 people
. no war, no peace between the two countries. Although there was no real war, the armies of both countries were on standby and the tension and war potential were there.
After two decades, leaders have now agreed to put an end to this situation and to economic and social ties. The easing of tensions is already evident – until now, telecommunication services between the two have resumed; Ethiopian Airlines begins scheduled flights to Asmara; Eritrea reopened its embassy in Addis Ababa
The conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea was one of the main causes of instability in the Horn of Africa and the effects of their rapprochement will be felt throughout the region. The proxy war policy that they have led beyond the issue of borders – both in the territory of the other and in the remote areas of the Horn – has contributed to the war. regional insecurity. In their recent statement, leaders included an agreement to ensure peace, development and cooperation at the regional level.
The rebel movements based in the two countries under the principle "enemy of my enemy is my friend" were born. Incidents involving armed groups attempting to enter Ethiopia in Ethiopia – with authorities accusing the Eritrean government of supporting them – contributed to the tensions.
One of the most significant recent incidents was the attempt by armed groups to attack the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. , a major symbol of Ethiopia's ambitions and infrastructural feats. The attackers are believed to be from Eritrea
. Similar patterns have been observed elsewhere in the country, showing how broken relationships have destabilized other parts of the Horn. Eritrea has been accused of supporting "terrorist" groups like Al-Shabaab in Somalia from the beginning of the 2000s. This has led to the contestation of the border dispute in a third destination, Somalia – contributing to the conflict cycle. In the region.
The resumption of relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea will mean more stability for the entire region. There has already been mention of readmitting Eritrea to the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). Such a result would begin its reintegration into the wider region, and diminish its overall isolation.
Nevertheless, the new situation may also create a dilemma for countries that have benefited from the previous status quo – eg Djibouti. After the border war, Ethiopia, a landlocked country, moved the main seaport for its imports and exports from Eritrea to Djibouti, which currently accounts for about 90% of Ethiopian port traffic. Ethiopia pays about US $ 1.5 billion annually to Djibouti for port services. Djibouti's position could be threatened if Ethiopia started using Eritrean ports.
Djibouti was unlikely to maintain its near monopoly on Ethiopia's import / export trade – a port for a fast developing country of more than one million is not enough. And Ethiopia had already sought to diversify its access to the port.
In favor of Djibouti, however, is that its port infrastructure remains more developed than any other options in Ethiopia. In addition, the newly inaugurated Ethio-Djibouti railway provides a stable logistics link; and Ethiopia can take a stake in the main port of Djibouti.
Although the impact on port traffic is unclear, renewed relations could benefit Djibouti as it also has an unresolved border dispute with Eritrea. As the two countries now have good relations with Ethiopia, it might be possible to commit to a peaceful solution to this problem.
Sudan is probably watching events closely. He has oscillated between aligning himself with Ethiopia and Eritrea and his relations with both countries are sometimes complicated. Recently, however, Sudan has moved more towards Ethiopia and in January closed its border with Eritrea and deployed troops nearby. Eritrea responded by accusing Sudan of supporting rebel anti-Asmara movements.
As in Djibouti, improved relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea could eventually reduce the potential threat along the Sudanese border, especially if Eritrea is readmitted to the country. # 39; IGAD. regional stabilization through greater integration.
Thus, while the resumption of good relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea is positive for both countries, the impact will be felt throughout the region. Hopefully, improved relationships will end the cycle of direct and indirect conflicts that have plagued the Horn of Africa for far too long.
Omar S Mahmood, Researcher and Meressa K Dessu, Senior Researcher and Training Coordinator, ISS Addis Ababa
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