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Over the past eighteen months, there has been an overall increase in conflict in Cameroon, due to the Boko Haram regional insurgency and the Ambazonian conflict. However, since late 2017, the Ambazonian conflict has dominated both the number of conflicts and the growing number of deaths in Cameroon.
Boko Haram has been operating in the Far North region of Cameroon since 2014 (events and deaths marked) in blue in Figure 1). The Far North region of Cameroon is a useful supply base for Boko Haram activists operating in Nigeria. Boko Haram incidents in Cameroon are typically "hit-and-run" attacks targeting looting, targeting property and livestock, rather than directly engaging security forces (ACED, March 2, 2018). These incidents decreased by more than half, from 82 in the third quarter of 2017 to 31 in the second quarter of 2018.
However, as Boko Haram's activity in the Far North declined, the global conflict in Cameroon has increased, the Ambazonian crisis in the north-west and south-west regions has intensified (events and deaths marked in orange in Figure 1). Anglophone Cameroonians, frustrated at being systematically marginalized in public institutions and state positions, mobilized to create the Federal Republic of Ambazonia, a separate English-speaking state. Separatists are increasingly targeting security forces, state authorities, schools and pro-regime politicians (Journal du Cameroun, June 19, 2018). There was a brutal response from the Cameroonian army. Security forces chased separatist groups from village to village, causing heavy material damage and seriously impeding economic activities. Several thousand civilians reportedly sheltered either in the bush, in the neighboring Littoral region, or in Nigeria. There are also reports of mass executions by the military (Amnesty International, June 12, 2018).
In the second quarter of 2018, 239 deaths were reported in the Ambazonian regions of the Northwest and Southwest, compared with 86 in the Boko Haram region in the Far North (see Figure 1). Anglophone regions have become the main political concern of the Cameroonian government and international interests. France and the United States both expressed their concern about the situation and made suggestions to the Cameroonian government. In June, local civilians reported seeing white soldiers in Buea (AllAfrica, 1 July 2018), suggesting that French special forces were present in the area.
The Anglophone crisis is particularly important for President Paul Biya. Biya, who has been running Cameroon since 1982, hopes to win the elections. However, polls in the northwestern and southwestern regions are raising concerns over electoral violence in the March senatorial elections, in which several polling stations were set on fire in English-speaking areas (Africa News, July 12, 2018). Biya's legitimacy depends on its ability to manage the escalation of the crisis in the northwest and south-west of the country.
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