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Elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo will apparently lift the veil on the era of President Joseph Kabila, responsible for the vast country rich in natural resources for nearly 18 tumultuous years.
If the elections were held on Sunday, it would be the first peaceful transition of power in the postcolonial history of the DRC.
But many analysts strongly doubt that Kabila is leaving politics.
Instead, they predict that he will simply exert an influence behind the scenes – a tactic likely to be imitated by two rivals, the ex-rebel Jean-Pierre Bemba and Moise Katumbi, ex- governor of the province of Katanga in exile.
Kabila took power at the age of 29 after the assassination of his father president, Laurent-Désiré, in 2001, by a bodyguard.
If Sunday's three-postponed vote goes as planned, Kabila will resign to serve as a life senator for former presidents.
Kabila has been vague about his future but, at the age of 47, does not seem to have the intention of retiring.
"In life, as in politics, I excluded nothing," he told the foreign press before the election.
He said his political future could be clearer in 2023 – the year the country is preparing for its upcoming presidential elections.
Critics say Kabila is planning to keep his seat warm thanks to his successor, the former interior minister, Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary, one of the leaders of the group, one of the leading runners wins the election.
After nearly 18 years in power, Mr. Kabila has also formed a network of supporters of the military and security apparatus, as well as a loyal political vehicle, the Common Front of Congo (FCC), which has Said earlier this year. "moral authority."
Kabila would also have major interests in the economy, which would also strengthen his potential influence. A survey conducted by Bloomberg two years ago revealed that the Kabila family had established a large commercial network with interests throughout the DRC.
Former militia leader Jean-Pierre Bemba, 56, has for years been part of the political landscape of the DRC and competes with the Kabila clan.
He was already assistant to Mobutu Sese Seko, but left the country after Kabila's father overthrew the dictator in 1997.
In 1998, he formed his Mouvement de liberation du Congo (MLC) militia into an armed opposition to Kabila Senior.
He became vice president of an interim government in 2003, but in 2006 he was defeated by Kabila Junior as part of an election bid. He was elected to the Senate the following year.
In 2008, Bemba was arrested in Brussels for war crimes by the International Criminal Court for committing atrocities committed by his militia in the neighboring Central African Republic.
In 2016, the ICC declared him guilty of war crimes and crimes against humanity but this year annulled the appeal decision.
But another accusation of bribing a witness at the ICC meant that he was legally excluded from an election candidacy.
Bemba has a large power base, particularly in northwestern DRC, and tens of thousands of supporters came back in August.
Like Katumbi, he supported Martin Fayulu, a little-known legislator and former oil executive, as the rival candidate of Shadary pro-Kabila.
Millionaire Moise Katumbi was also prevented from running in Sunday's election.
But the 53-year-old can still count on the influence he exerts on the future of the DRC through his support for Fayulu.
His stronghold is the province of Katanga, rich in minerals, where he was governor.
After having scrambled with Kabila, Katumbi has been living since May 2016 in voluntary exile in Belgium, the former colonial power. He was sentenced to three years' imprisonment for fraud against property, a charge he denies.
In January, he declared that he would run in the presidential election, but was later accused of hiring mercenaries and charged with undermining state security. .
In August, he was barred from entering the DRC while he was attempting to meet a deadline for filing his candidacy for the election.
In October, the case was referred to the Constitutional Court, a procedure likely to take months.
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