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Windhoek – A series of conflicts resulting from insufficient rainfall that most of the region is likely to receive during the current season may affect the Southern African Development Community (SADC).
Low yields are expected with most of the region receiving normal to below normal precipitation.
SADC, considered the most peaceful region in Africa, fears a conflict because of unfair prices for low-yielding commodities, which would likely lead to higher cereal and cereal prices for some farmers. breeders could reduce prices when destocking.
"Conflict and violence also increases the vulnerability of communities whose livelihoods and survival depend on adequate and timely rainfall," said the Early Warning Bulletin of the Center for Climate Services (CSC) of the SADC regarding the 2018/19 rainy season.
The SADC CSC also worries about the possibility of competition for resources between pastoralists and farmers could increase the risk of conflict and violence and, with it, displacement.
It is also feared that competition for water resources leading to tensions between upstream and downstream farmers will increase.
The discord between the fauna and the flora and the inhabitants is another source of fears; it can also encroach on the other, as well as clashes between authorities and people moving with their livestock in national parks in search of greener pastures.
When rainfall is normal or above normal, flooding may result in the displacement of wild communities and wildlife, as well as sudden evacuations.
"Since floods are at the origin of most natural disasters-related travel, it is recommended to use forecasts and other early warnings available to better prepare," recommended CSC.
The SADC center has warned that more effective early warning systems and community-based quick actions, without any control measures, could trigger larger displacements as a necessary survival measure.
The South African Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-22), held in Maun, Botswana in December, confirmed that many SADC Member States experienced normal to below-normal precipitation in October. December 2018.
Total precipitation has been below average in most parts of the region. Most parts of the region begin to plant in November, but most rains fell from late November to early December.
Most SADC is expected to receive normal to below-normal rainfall from January to March 2019. Angola, eastern Botswana, southeastern DRC, southern DRC, southern, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, North and West coastal regions of South Africa, southern Tanzania and Zambia and Zimbabwe will have such models.
Normal to above normal precipitation is expected in central South Africa, southwestern Botswana, southeastern Namibia, northern Angola, Tanzania and Madagascar. , most of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Mauritius and Seychelles.
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