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By finishing third on stage 17 – and putting even more time into these closest contenders, Tom Dumoulin and Chris Froome – Geraint Thomas actually sewed the yellow jersey for himself.
There are still two important stages of the Tour de France, but there is no reason to expect Thomas to waste time on the big mountain scene on Friday based on his ascent. a good time trial driver to postpone a challenge late Saturday. The best thing Thomas can do over the next three days is to stay on his bike. If he does, he will sip champagne and soak it on the Champs-Élysées this Sunday.
Unfortunately for him, cycling is not like most traditional sports. Thomas can not dribble the clock or kneel to end the competition. It still has 347.6 kilometers to go, and along the road, there may be crazy fans, unexpected potholes, or a number of dangers. There is also the threat of the dreaded "bonk".
Let's run the greatest threats
Thomas could crack
Cyclists live in the terror of "bonk". When a cyclist does not take enough risks of carbohydrates and runs out of glycogen stores, his muscles weaken and he physically can not get himself as fast as he is used to.
Before the start of the tour, I spoke to a physiologist who explained why the bonk occurs.
Technically, we say that it is a "low energy availability", but what happens is that they do not consume enough to recover all their muscle and liver, partly because they are in this state of decomposition. more in the immediate rather than storing it. So as you progress more and more in the race, and you have fewer and fewer reserves, they have to eat more and more, and physically they just do not have the appetite .
Bonks are hard to predict. to be a particular concern for someone like Thomas, who does not have the habit of running so hard and so deep in a three-week Grand Tour. Thomas made his career as domestic – that is, an assistant, and a damn good – never finishing higher than 15th in the Grand Tour. On days like Friday, he has the habit of rolling to his absolute limit for most of the stage and then coming back before the finish line for his leader to Team take over.
Thomas was waiting to repeat this role in the 2018 Tour before discovering the shape of his life. Will he have the last little effort needed to complete the task?
Probably. He was equal to or better than all the challenges that he faced this race.
Still, it's unexplored water for him, and even if he loses, say, 30 seconds to Dumoulin, he could get in trouble, because …
Dumoulin is a better chronicler than Thomas
Now, Thomas is not outdone. He won the British National Time Trial Championship earlier this year, as well as the individual Tour 1 time trial of last year. In most years, a late time trial would be a good sign for Thomas's hopes.
A problem: the man in second place behind him is probably the best time trial in the world. Thomas did not participate in the 2017 world championships, but Froome did. Froome is a timekeeper comparable to Thomas, finishing a very respectable third in the event – and again was mowed by Dumoulin for one minute and 25 seconds on 31 kilometers.
Saturday's course is exactly the same length, and it does not show the same sudden climb-but is climb, and if the gap between the two runners is d & # 39, a minute, 59 seconds, this gives Dumoulin at least the chance to pull off the yellow jersey of Thomas at step 20.
That would be an incredible surprise. But it is not improbable either.
Thomas could also be terribly unlucky, which has happened to him
The fact that Thomas has not excelled in many great tours is not entirely his fault.
During last year 's Tour, he was in second position overall at stage 9 when he crashed into the wet descent of Col de la Biche. Another accident from the 9th stage (19459006) forced him to abandon the Giro d'Italia the same year. In 2015, he was fourth at the end of the 19th stage, but he cracked, finally finishing 22 minutes behind Vincenzo Nibali and diving in 15th place. Earlier in this tour, he came out unscathed from a scary accident that involved a hairpin bend, a telephone pole, and a deep ravine on the descent of the Manse Pass
Bad luck ] probably does not I am mostly a runner, but Thomas was particularly unlucky in the big races. His experience shows that the danger is almost always present on the Tour de France
. Stage 19 includes two climbs Hors Classe including the famous Col du Tourmalet, which will be filled with fans. We have already seen the crowds drop a Tour favorite and abandon the race. For better or for worse, they will be back in full force next Friday.
Let's hope that if something goes wrong for Thomas, it will be according to his conditions – it's better to be beaten by someone of Dumoulin's caliber than to plant, for many reasons. But three days is long, especially for him.
The yellow jersey is unless something goes wrong. And unfortunately at the Tour de France, something is never far away.
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