Tesla Long-Term Hardware and Software Game – CleanTech – Interview with Tasha Keeney, Part 2

April 21, 2019 by Zachary Shahan

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For our new series of interviews on the CleanTech Talk Podcast, I recently met with Tasha Keeney, an analyst at ARK Invest, to discuss various aspects of autonomous vehicles, Tesla, Tesla and Tesla. Tasha specializes in autonomous cars and 3D printing at ARK Invest.

Tasha and Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, recently invited Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, in studio for their new podcast series. We were inspired by this cat and I also touched on several key topics about self-reliance that I am always eager to learn more about.

The conversation lasted about 45 minutes, so to reduce it to more manageable parts, I divided it into two episodes. This article covers the second episode and the first episode was published here: "Tesla Autopilot, Full Self Driving, Elon Musk, ARK Invest – CleanTech Talk with Tasha Keeney."

Listen to the second part of the discussion on your favorite podcast platform (11 options are linked under the CleanTech Talk banner) or via this integrated SoundCloud player:

You can subscribe and listen CleanTech Talk is activated: Anchor, Apple Podcasts / iTunes, Breaker, Google Podcasts, Overcast, Pocket, Podbean, Public Radio, SoundCloud, Spotify and Stitcher.

To start this second part, I pointed out the somewhat hidden or little discussed fact that even though a Tesla Model 3 could cost as much as a BMW 3 Series or a Mercedes-Benz C-Class (or 10 000 euros less), she has a ton more. computer hardware and software built into it that will pay off later. "The Tesla is the only car on the road to improve after leaving the field. … A traditional automaker has never had control of the complete software stack of all hardware decisions and their way of gathering decisions made by other separate external companies – with respect to the hardware to be used. Overcome this – we think that over the next 10 years, many businesses could simply shut down.

"On the cost side, we heard that Porsche and Audi had dismantled Model 3 and were surprised at how much Tesla had created these inexpensive components. Now that they've released the cheapest version, I think the other builders should do it – and are probably scared at this point. "

I then turned to Maarten's analysis of UBS's clearly erroneous analysis of Tesla Model 3 production costs. This article is inescapable and helps explain not only why UBS has so badly told the story, but also why Tesla is at the forefront of the costs in autonomous driving and electric vehicles. (I also recommended reviewing the history of the UBS analyst on Tesla and GM.) Tasha then deepened her hardware knowledge and Tesla's leadership in hardware computing.

We talked a little bit about the evaluation – or lack thereof – of Tesla's self-powered arm, especially compared to other players in the industry.

In addition, we discussed how Tesla is innovating in the manufacturing sector – both in terms of hardware and software – and how this is also linked to Tesla's strong vertical integration.

Tasha spoke of the risk of bankruptcy of other automakers in the coming years, which brought me back to a topic I wrote in mid-March. "Remember, this is not a total collapse in auto sales that led to the bankruptcy of GM and Chrysler about ten years ago. Overall, auto sales in the United States fell 11.7% between 2007 and 2008. "If you see how many automakers saw their sales fall, Tesla sales soaring, the idea of imminent bankruptcy seems much more realistic. Look at the sales declines of automakers in January, February and March and think about it.

We also discussed the subject of the Tesla Model 3 as being cost-competitive with the Toyota Camry, the Honda Accord, the Nissan Altima and other similar cars, a topic recently analyzed. by ARK Invest.

We also talked about inflection points, their origin and why we do not see them so often. Tasha used Wright's law to model much of their technology cost decline curves. She also noted that many of the analyzes they find are radically different (more bearish) than those of ARK Invest are retrospective analyzes that, by and large, do not even take into account future inflection points.

To close the interview, I asked Tasha a few questions about ARK Invest's approach to investing and market research. Instead of one quarter to another, ARK is aiming for a return on price in 5 years. Over the past five years, it's hard to see how Tesla is ahead of the competition and continues to dominate the EV market, as the market becomes much bigger.

Finally, Tasha had some excellent words to remember that withdrew to look at a bigger picture. They did not focus on Tesla but on the overall growth of AI. "I think we are at a time when we are undergoing such dramatic AI transformations, and that does not affect that vehicles – we think that this could affect each industry. And it's very difficult to predict, but if we realize that it happens much earlier than expected. "

To learn more, listen to the entire podcast via the built-in player above or on your favorite podcast platform.

Again, you can listen to the first part of our conversation on one of these channels: Anchor, Apple Podcasts / iTunes, Breaker, Google Podcasts, Overcast, Pocket, Podbean, Public Radio, SoundCloud, Spotify and Stitcher. Or you can read a summary here.

You can also listen to my podcast discussion with Ross Gerber (in three parts – one, two, three). Upcoming episodes will include interviews with Galileo Russel from HyperChange TV, Nancy Pfund from DBL Partners, Mark Z. Jacobson from Stanford University and The Solutions Project, Zac from the popular Now You Know YouTube channel, Tomek Gać from Quriers and Tesla Shuttle, and maybe a special feature with a top Tesla executive. Stay tuned!

Keywords: Ark Invest, audi, clean tech talk, Elon Musc, Honda Accord, Porsche, Tasha Keeney, Tesla, Tesla autopilot, Tesla Full Self Driving, UBS, Volkswagen Group