Tesla loses ground in Europe should worry investors, strategist says



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View of the road sign “Tesla Straße 1” in front of the construction site of the Tesla factory. Tesla boss Musk visits the construction site of his electric car factory.

Jorg Carstensen | image alliance | Getty Images

Tesla lost ground in Europe, with its Model 3 now only the fourth best-selling pure electric vehicle (EV) on the continent, according to recent statistics.

The European EV market is now the largest in the world in terms of sales following a boom in 2020 accompanied by a slump in China. Share of new electric car registrations is double that of China and five times that of the United States

In a note Wednesday, Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, said that Tesla’s overtaking by Renault, Volkswagen and Hyundai in recent months should have shareholders “alarmed”.

“Tesla will succeed and become one of the biggest automakers in the future, but the competition is intensifying and this calls into question the market value of $ 805 billion,” Garnry said.

Tesla’s stock rose more than 21% in the first two weeks of 2021, having climbed more than 700% in 2020.

Garnry noted that European vehicle registration figures for November showed plug-ins, a combination of purely electric and hybrid vehicles, increased 198% year over year, while total registrations of cars on the continent were down 14%.

Plug-in vehicles now represent around 10% of the overall market share in Europe, with pure electric vehicles accounting for around 5.4%.

Garnry said customers argued Tesla’s sales were generally stronger in the last month of the quarter, but pointed out that sales declined in October and November.

In the latest electric vehicle ranking, the Renault Zoe retained the top spot, followed closely by the VW ID.3, according to sales figures from the EV Volumes Plug-in Vehicle Market Database. Hyundai’s Kona finished third ahead of the Tesla Model 3.

“While this should worry Tesla shareholders, it is even more striking that the Model S and X do not make the top 20 in the rankings despite the presence of direct competing models such as the Audi e-tron,” added Garnry.

Tesla was not immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC.

On Thursday, Renault’s new CEO Luca de Meo announced that the French automaker would switch to a more electric range, alongside the construction of a battery factory in France with one of its suppliers.

“We will go from an automotive company working with technology to a technology company working with cars,” said de Meo.

China demands ‘heart and lungs’

Tesla stock is currently changing hands at $ 845 per share, and in a note Thursday, U.S. investment firm Wedbush Securities raised its price target to $ 950 per share from $ 715, with a bullish scenario of 1250. $.

Wedbush cited an increase in demand for electric vehicles and the Model 3 from China, which she defined as the “heart and lungs” of the deal for owning Tesla shares.

“While there are over 150 car manufacturers aggressively seeking the opportunity of electric vehicles around the world, we currently believe that in the electric vehicle market, it is Tesla’s world and everyone pays rent, ”Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives and Strecker Backe said.

They predict that by 2022, more than 40% of Tesla’s overall delivery sales will come from China, while Democrats controlling all three branches of the US government will give electric vehicles at large a substantial boost, given the President-elect Joe Biden’s climate agenda.

“We believe the growth story in China is worth at least $ 100 a share in a bullish deal for Tesla, as this EV penetration is expected to increase significantly over the next 12-18 months, along with major innovations from battery from Giga 3 (Tesla’s Shanghai Factory), ”they said.

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