Tesla Stock plunges ahead of first quarter in data shipments as new rival sees big gain



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You’re here (TSLA) will announce first quarter deliveries soon, as Wall Street assesses the effects of the global chip shortage on the electric vehicle maker. Tesla stock has foregone its gains.




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The report is expected as Tesla’s EV rivals are rolling out Q1 numbers as well. Thursday afternoon, Ford (F) reported first-quarter sales, including 6,614 electric crossovers Mustang Mach-E, an emerging rival to Tesla.

Early Thursday, Nio (NIO) reported sales of 20,060 units, exceeding its lowered forecast, and Xpeng (XPEV) reported 13,340.

RBC Capital Markets Research analysts predict that Tesla will deliver 170,000 units, including 164,800 Model 3 / Y vehicles and 5,300 Model S / X vehicles. The total would represent a 92% increase from the previous year, but a 6% decrease compared to the last quarter. RBC’s estimate is lower than a previous view for 182,000 shipments as global chip and battery shortages squeeze EV makers.

Gene Munster of Loup Venture says he expects Tesla to miss even those lowered estimates and see shipments around 160,000. But he added that investors shouldn’t be worried because the causes of the deficit are temporary.

Meanwhile, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives says that despite the chip shortage, Tesla could exceed the 170,000 deliveries expected in the first quarter. The pace “would help restore positive momentum for Tesla and the electric vehicle industry,” Ives wrote in a recent note to customers.

Ives said consumer demand remains strong in the United States and China. He said demand was particularly strong in February and March in China.

“In China, after a difficult start in January, we believe that Tesla has benefited from the transfers of shares compared to the national players and thus puts the company on a trajectory to easily exceed 800,000 units for the year”, a said Ives.

For the first quarter of 2021, Wedbush raised its estimate of the 3 / Y model to 160,000 units from 132,000 units. It slightly increased its estimate of S / X models to 14,000 units from 12,500 units, bringing the total to 174,000 units.


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Tesla Stock Action

Shares turned negative to close down 0.9% at 661.75 on the stock market today. Tesla’s line of relative strength is also on the rise again. Nio stock rebounded 1.7%, Xpeng rose 1.2% and Li Auto (LI) added 1%.

Even though Tesla sees a decline in the first quarter, Wall Street expects a rapid rebound.

Ives increased Tesla’s delivery estimates for the second quarter, setting Model 3 / Y deliveries at 166,000 from the previous view at 144,000. He sees Model S / X deliveries hitting 14,000 from around 13,000 previously. , bringing the estimate of total units for the second quarter to 180,000 from 157,000.

“We now model total annual unit deliveries for FY21 at 830,000 units compared to our previous number of 774,000 units,” Ives wrote.

Follow Adelia Cellini Linecker on Twitter @IBD_Adelia.

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