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There are rumors going around this week about Tesla’s next $ 25,000 electric car, but I think it’s best to temper expectations about the timing because of two words: battery cells.
During Tesla Battery Day last year, CEO Elon Musk announced that Tesla would make a $ 25,000 electric car.
The CEO commented in the announcement:
Tesla will make a compelling $ 25,000 electric vehicle that will also be fully autonomous.
He made it clear that this new price is being met thanks to Tesla’s new battery cell and battery manufacturing efforts, which could reduce battery costs by more than 50%.
The $ 25,000 Tesla electric car has been compared to a new electric sedan that Tesla planned to produce at Gigafactory Shanghai in China and export worldwide.
Last year, Tesla announced plans to establish a new R&D center in China to build a “Chinese-style” electric car.
Tesla began receiving design submissions for its Chinese-made small electric car last summer and began hiring for the program soon after.
At the time, the automaker also released this first design drawing of a small electric sedan. This has led many to believe that this was the design direction and form factor Tesla was looking for in the next electric vehicle:
The timeline for the new vehicle is unclear, but this week media reported a rumor from China:
A popular Chinese auto blogger who speaks often about Tesla said sources told him Tesla has completed the vehicle’s first prototype and that they plan to start test production by the end of the year.
Taking Electek
While I think it’s very possible that Tesla already has a prototype of the unnamed $ 25,000 model, people need to temper their expectations for production starting next year, which is the implication though. trial production begins this year.
As Musk mentioned, the new model and its pricing is made possible by the new 4680 battery cell and structural battery.
Now, I don’t think Tesla would necessarily produce the cells themselves for this vehicle as they validate cells from other manufacturers, and 4,680 cells from CATL would make sense for this model.
While I think we might see a prototype of the new model in the next year or so, I don’t think it’s realistic to think that it will go into production by the end of 2022.
In order to achieve this price target, Tesla will need to have access to a very large amount of 4680, and the structural battery platform will need to be connected.
We would need to see Tesla achieve volume production of the new Model Y with a first structure, and at this point it seems unlikely until next year.
I think 2023 will be the year of the $ 25,000 Tesla car. What do you think? Let us know in the comment section below.
Photo: KDesign AG
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