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World trade boils US-China arm up taxes – devaluation Trade mobilizes trade ambassadors to manage Impact on exports: US $ 6,000 million The private sector expects short-term agricultural products to benefit . Rocking of medium-term production in ASEAN Ready to watch for high volatility The yuan is the biggest problem. The Center for International Trade Studies predicts that Thailand will face two wars that are recovering: its competitors. May cause negative Thai exports this year
The trade war between the United States and China has intensified by raising taxes and reacting firmly. After the final negotiations in the face of a failure The United States has announced an increase of $ 200,000 million compared to the latest tax on Chinese products. When they were combined with the first $ 300 billion increase, the United States raised more than $ 500 billion in tax revenue in favor of China. A value of about $ 60 billion, including the adjustment of the Chinese yuan in a weaker country. And there are signs that this will degenerate into countermeasures against the devaluation of the US currency.
Auto / electronic acceleration
The "Prachachat Business" journalists reported that Ms. Chutima Bunyaprapasara, Deputy Minister of Commerce Trade Minister, instructed all agencies to prepare for a trade war that took place
At the same time, the Ministry of Commerce will invite major investors and entrepreneurs in the electronics sector. With Vehicles and Parts Who will be most affected by this trade war Come talk before meeting the international trade ambassadors at the end of May. To determine the target of export
Impact, export 5-6 billion
For her part, Ms. Pimchanok Wonkhaporn, Director of the Bureau of Trade Policy and Strategy (DFO), said that the initial impact of the $ 200,000 million tax on Chinese products could be reduced to around 5,600 Thai exports. -6.7 billion because this group of products whose tax increases are announced covers the programs that Thailand exports to various countries at about 46% according to the calculation of the two basic figures from the first quarter. two exports to the United States replace China Export to China And exports of products that are Chinese manufacturing lines to important markets Exports to the United States are likely to increase by 9.2%, those China decreased by 9.7% and those destined for third countries in the supply chain decreased by 7.5%.
"The Minister's Office of Analysis found that export growth of many products is satisfactory, such as agriculture and food, fruits, beverages, chicken, cosmetics and skincare products Although these items have little value, they can not compensate for the contraction of industrial products, but it is a group that has a positive impact on the income of the agricultural sector and SMEs. Electronics and automobiles That is mainly exported by major foreign and Thai investors Use possibly investment measures to attract more investors from all countries, including China, to invest in the EEC, "said Ms. Pimchanok.
The automotive product group could be further affected by the safeguarding measures provided for in Article 232 (safety authority) of the United States, which is expected to announce the results soon, as well as by the United States. agreement between the USMCA and NAFTA. Mandatory at the beginning of 2020, conditions for local content are tightened from 60.62.5% to 75% Government may need to help Thai manufacturers find ways to associate or develop Investing with foreign companies investing in the United States. Or already in Mexico Maintain Market Share
Normal Thai Baht
In the case of the United States focused on Thailand can be considered a country that is "Currencymanipulator" Thai export data from the Thai part revealed that Although the care of the currency will increase somewhat But not at the unusual level of exchange rates By contrast, the Thai baht is quite strong compared to other Asian countries.
Negative electronics
Ms Kanyapak Tantiphiphatpong, Chairman of the National Shippers' Council of Thailand (The Exporters' Council) stated that the Exporters' Council had not adjusted the export target set for 2019, which is expected to grow by 3%, but would arrange a meeting soon with the sector, especially those affected by Trade Wars such as the electronics industry – electrical appliances Assess the situation and the intervention plan Initially, this product group should present negative opportunities this year. For food and agricultural products such as rubber – cassava Should develop well
Mr. Wisit Limluecha, President of Food Group Federation of Thai Industries And the Vice Chairman of the National Council of Thai Loaders said that he could analyze two aspects, namely the increase of the Chinese tax on products from 10% to 25%, mainly agricultural products. And the increase of the Chinese tax on products of 60 billion USD to counter agricultural products will create opportunities for Thai agricultural products to replace in 2 markets, especially sugar-based products in which Thailand has the potential to produce substitutes in the Chinese market But one must first unblock the quota And the industrial chicken products that Thailand provides to China and the United States, such as Automotive-Electronics Group Ensure that There is an "acceleration of imports" in the short term before the tax increase measures are in place or not, and medium-term producers in two countries will have the opportunity to "shift the production of base "that ASEAN And Thailand will be the target of the investment base shift Especially the S-curve group, but we must also look at Vietnam as Vietnam has a tax regime (GSP), an FTA-EU agreement and a CPTPP agreement "as long as Thailand does not exist"
As for the question of China, the devaluation of the yuan will have an impact on exchange rate fluctuations. Is considered the biggest problem that exporters face because 1 year ago, "the Thai baht is the strongest" compared to other countries The volatility of money again What, although analysts estimate that the Thai baht is likely to depreciate according to the yuan and money of the region But in this situation, money is expected to flow further into Thailand.
Found 2 rebound, lowest export, 4 years
Mr. Attipisarn Vanich, Director of the International Trade Studies Center University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce Revealed that the EU-VN FTA and the trade war against Thai exports in 2019 and that the effects of wars US and Chinese trade increased taxes at this time The global economic forecast for 2019 will increase by 3%, down from previous forecasts from 3.3% to 3.5% or down to 0.3% to 0, 5%, which will affect countries around the world, including Thailand. This year, growth will be only 2.2 to 4.6% compared to the previous forecast of 3.2 to 4.6% and if the Vietnam-Europe FTA comes into effect in the third quarter
This will result in an average reduction of 0.5% per year in inter-product taxes, which will affect Thai exports to the European Union between 2019 and 2021. The second half of this year, exports will be lost In millions In Baht, the most affected products include clothing, machinery and components, electrical equipment and components.
If 2 factors are included, including the Vietnam-EU trade war and ALE Thailand's exports will be reduced to 0.5-1% or the lowest level in four years, but even more so if the US- United are collecting an additional $ 300 billion and if China raises import taxes again will Thai exports rise below 0.5% "or not grow at all", but will have to follow Future Will China again cut the yuan? That can be reduced by an additional 20-25% to cover the increase in taxes Make Chinese products cheaper As a result, Chinese products could spread in Thailand. And the relocation of production in the CLMV region
BOT warns against product companies
Mrs Chantawan Sucharitkun, Deputy Governor, Strategy and Organizational Relations The Bank of Thailand (BOT) examines the effects of trade wars on economic activity in three areas: 1) the slowdown in global trade 2) the impact trade diversion will be both positive And negative in each industry, such as Thai products sent to be assembled in China And is part of the production chain that is passed to the US market will be affected But at the same time The beneficial products are groups that can be sent to the US market to replace products from China. (substitution effect) 3) diversion of investment can be transferred to Asia and Thailand To avoid being examined from the origin of the product "Things to look at It is sell products that are not sold during the main trading partner in third country markets such as Thailand. "
Low Asian currency in the short term
Miss Kanchana Chok Phaisan Silp Research Director Research Group The Kasikorn Research Center said China had announced the yuan on May 13 in the morning, its lowest value in three and a half months to counter trade with the United States . Also weakened the Asian currency But this is a short-term situation in which the Thai long-term currency can not be predicted. Due to the high uncertainty factor
The strongest baht in the region
Mr. Amornthep Jawala, senior director of the research bureau of the CIMB Thai Bank, said that with "Prachachat Business", the impact of the trade war on Thai exports, it must be said that the slowdown in exports in the past, not only in Thailand But go all over the region but only "Vietnam" that remains positive The trade war has slowed the global economy and Thai exports continue to face the strength of the baht. "Who is also the strongest in the region"
The factors that put pressure on the Thai export sector will be the slowing of the global economy rather than the direct trade war. Especially the Chinese economy is important As Thailand exports a lot to China, however, it is important to keep an eye on the benefits of the trade war with the relocation of the Chinese production base. Which is still a hope. "
With regard to exports to the US Mr. Amornthep said "unlikely to have a greater impact" as most of the products exported to the United States are already considered Thailand's assets. And a lot of products are US companies that have established production bases in Thailand And then export the product in return Therefore, should not have much impact In addition, the United States have direct trade barriers with Thailand.
"Previously, the baht was weakening at 32 baht for a US dollar But when the United States came out Again appreciating the baht But I think that this should not be a problem in the long run.This period should be The order of 31.50 to 32 baht per room, which should give a clearer picture in the second half .If everything is clear The baht is likely to be weaker, "said Amornthep.
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