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HoonSmart.com >> Credit Suisse lowered the TOP target price from the initial value of 73 Baht to 55 Baht PTTGC from the price of 73 Baht to 65 Baht IRPC from 6.50 Baht to 5 Baht and the price of the PTT is identical to 45 baht after weight loss adjustment Investment Expected profit for this year is down Immediate pressure on stock prices
Credit Suisse Company On May 22, 2019, the government released an analysis of Thai energy stocks that low profits from downstream activities will continue for a long time. Therefore, we always recommend reducing the weight of equity investments in this group. And a 21 to 34 percent reduction in earnings forecasts for 2019 due to lower crude oil prices and smaller differences for diesel and gasoline, as well as a significant reduction in paraxylene . As a result, we lowered Thai Oil (TOP) earnings guidance by 29%, 27% below the overall market, and we expect a base profit of Bt 7.2 billion, down 38%. % compared to the previous year. Reduce the target price from 73 baht to 55 baht
For IRPC, Credit Suisse has lowered its indicative price to 5 baht, against 6.5 baht, while it is a good stock of IMO 2020 (IMO 2020, the requirements of the International Maritime Organization). Who announced the ban on using high sulfur oil in the fleet), most in the group And even if the profits will recover The stock price will rise more than the other shares of the group . Nevertheless, we lowered our earnings forecast further by 34%, which translates to a base profit of Bt 4.9 billion. Our estimate is 30% lower than the market. %
Credit Suisse has reduced its earnings guidance (PTT) by 2%, while PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC) estimates that our estimates are still 30% lower than analysts' estimates.
"We have downgraded TOP's recommendation to be lower than the market." At a level equal to the market, IRPC adjusts the recommendation to be equal to the market, from initial weighting to market weight, "said Credit. Swiss.
The report predicts that the GMR will increase gradually from a weak base in the first quarter of 2019, although the recovery is slower than expected. What is the result of the pressure of rising crude oil prices due to the international political situation and the quantitative competition? Because China exports more
For petrochemicals Intense trade wars will slow the recovery of demand.
Credit Suisse still maintains that the IMO 2020 is the only positive factor for investment in this group. Because this will have a positive effect on the refinery This will see clear results in the last quarter of 2019 and meanwhile the risks in this group remain high Due to the volume of incoming market traffic coming from the new production capacity and Chinese exports, which are expected to increase further
In addition, ROEs are expected to fall to the lowest level, similar to 2009, in which the world is going through a financial crisis. Even if the value is high now
Credit Suisse's analysis, published on May 22, had an immediate impact on these actions: the TOP was swept to 2 baht or 3.20% to close at 60.50 baht. Baht or 0.84%, closed at 4.74 Baht and PTTGC closed at 62.50 Bahts, down 0.25 Baht
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