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Now that the football is officially over, it’s time for endless drafts, pro days, and free agent speculation. Most simulated blanks allow the 49ers to stay in 12th place and select a cornerback if one of the better quarterbacks doesn’t fall to them.
In the Athletic’s latest mock draft, Dane Brugler asks San Francisco to negotiate with the New York Jets, acquire Sam Darnold, trade first-round players, while also relinquishing a future second-round pick:
12. *** TRADE ***
The New York Jets receive:
2021 first round pick (no.12 overall)
Second round pick in 2022
The San Francisco 49ers receive:
2021 first-round pick (23rd overall)
QB Sam Darnold
There has been a lot of resistance to Darnold by 49ers fans. There’s no doubt that Darnold will come with a few headaches and play with a lot more variance than Jimmy Garoppolo. With variance comes turnovers and missed throws.
You’ll also see Darnold dodge a free rusher and keep the Jets on schedule by playing with his athleticism multiple times per game. Plus, Darnold’s physical tools allow him to make throws that Jimmy can’t.
In the fast-paced game, where Kyle Shanahan’s attack resides, this is where Darnold excels. Connecting the dots as to why Darnold would be a fit with the Niners is easy to do. It’s not just a player-for-player trade. You’re paying New York for a younger QB, but you’re paying them for Darnold’s contract as well.
Again, it’s never as simple as “is player X better than player Z”. In this scenario, the maximum Darnold count is less than $ 10 million for 2021. It’s from now. After the swap, the maximum Darnold count is around $ 5 million for 2021. The maximum Garoppolo number is $ 26 million. Is there a $ 21 million difference between the two players? I don’t believe it, and I doubt the Niners will either.
Acquiring Darnold would give San Francisco the flexibility to continue building its roster. It is essential to maintain a first round pick. Giving up on a future selection, which will almost certainly be in the mid-1920s, is smart business. Overall, the 49ers come out on top in this deal.
Regarding the direction taken by the team at No.23, Brugler asks the Niners to select an on-board rusher:
23. San Francisco 49ers (via NYJ) – Kwity Paye, Edge, Michigan
San Francisco was able to tackle the quarterback position without completely giving up the first round. And with Paye still on the board, the 49ers add a player they might have considered had they stayed at No.12. While still a work in progress, Paye has the athletic traits and energy to be just as productive as passing and running.
I haven’t watched Paye, but I know a lot of people in the draft community care about him. PFF’s Mike Renner told me that Paye is one of the only top players in this draft that he believes deserves a high selection.
Paye finished the season with a true pass-rush score of 90.6 and a pass-rush pass rate of 26.5%, double the college average. Paye was # 1 on Bruce Feldman’s Freaks list where he led a sub 6.5 3 cones:
He clocked the team’s second best 3-cone time at 6.37 seconds, which would have topped anyone at the 2020 combine. Paye’s 40 is also at 4.57, with a solid vertical of 34 inches and 30 reps on the bench press. Paye’s 40 time and pro shuttle time of 4.15 is better than any D lineman or top player who has tested in the 2020 combine. His time of 11.3 in the 60-yard shuttle is also elite.
If Paye rolls a 4.5, forget it for the 20s.
I talked about the fact that the 49ers need top athleticism, and it would be hard to find someone more athletic than Paye. Most scout reports will tell you he doesn’t have a plan as a pass-rusher, but if he’s already winning at a high rate then the sky is the limit for Paye, especially on a defensive line. where Paye would get one to one every week.
So in this scenario, the 49ers are relinquishing a second-round pick for Darnold while also trading their first-round pick with the Jets. They presumably swap / release Garoppolo to free up ceiling space, allowing them to sign free agents. San Francisco marks the most athletic of the draft’s top players with the best advantage keeping a first round.
I’ll take it.
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