The 5 days that defined the 2020 primary

For the 23 candidates for president as democrats, there are good and bad days. But, most importantly, there are big days. The days that keep the lights on. The days that fundamentally change the trajectory. And these days have often been on television, and then on social media, showing how viral moments are so often the cause of donations and the race to large scale.

To identify these difficult moments, the New York Times analyzed 5.8 million donations, merging the deposits of all the candidates to the elections and ActBlue, the main platform for processing donations of the party.

The analysis shows Pete Buttigieg's dizzying rise (from 25 donations in one day to nearly 25 million dollars in one quarter), the precipitous fall of Beto O. Rourke (more donations in his first 48 hours than his next 2,500) and Bernie Sanders' regular metronome (never less than 1,000 donations a day). For some candidates, like Joseph R. Biden Jr., their fundraising day was the most successful, while for others, like Elizabeth Warren, their best day was the last, when she did her first day of fundraising. $ 1 million day on June 30th.

Together donations, which account for more than 90% of funds raised, paint a picture of the ups and downs of an unstable primary, a day-by-day, dollar-for-dollar, rebuilding of the first six months of the year. 'year. the 2020 Democratic primary, telling who the leaders are and how they emerged.

Julia Rosen, a digital Democratic strategist who previously worked for ActBlue, where she had access to such data, called it a "divine vision" of modern campaigns.

"You can see everything," she says.

June 27

The day Kamala Harris said, "This little girl, it was me"

Kamala Harris was losing altitude, but even she did not know the extent of it. Few did it, beyond its nearest circle, with access to a digital dashboard that revealed the decrease in daily dollar consumption.

The California Democrat entered the 2020 race with 38,000 donors and $ 1.5 million in her first 24 hours. His average online career was nearly $ 100,000 a day in February. He had reached just over $ 30,000 on the eve of the first debate.

"Honestly, I was not aware of that," Harris said in a recent interview. She asked her staff, half joking, "Why did not anyone tell me?

They may not have known about the details – in June she failed to make $ 10,000 in online donations twice a day – but the decline was first debate. Her trajectory put her at risk of falling far behind the financial leaders and the debate was her chance to reverse the trend.

Ms. Harris's exchange with Mr. Biden on her precious memories of working with segregationist senators and her opposition to the mandatory bus was like a fuel injection for rocket in an engine crash: she raised 4.1 million dollars over the next four days, $ 3.4 million online – about as much as it had raised numerically over the previous 10 weeks combined. It would collect more than 112,000 donations in the last four days of June.

Prior to the debate, Ms. Harris's strongest moment since her announcement had been the interrogation of Attorney General William P. Barr by the Senate Judiciary Committee, which became viral in May. This caused a spike of 17,500 donations in two days.

Both summits reflected a trend in the contest: nothing was comparable to live TV ordering performance, especially if it resonated on social media. This is reflected in donations – and polls.

Shortly after the first debate, Ms. Harris reached 20% in a quinnipiac poll. She checked with her advisers, doubting that the push could be real. "The numbers went up so much the next day, I thought sugar had to be on the rise," Harris said during the interview. Indeed, she had returned to a figure after the second debate, at 7%.

In some ways, the most enduring legacy of his confrontation with Mr Biden has been the influx of money.

"It was legitimately a game changer," said Dan Newman, a former Harris advisor. "With the warning," he added, "the game will change a lot by polling day."

April 19th

The day Elizabeth Warren called for removal

At the time of Barack Obama's digital strategists, Joe Rospars, one of Warren's best advisors, used to tell people that building a digital fundraising device consisted primarily of to put buckets and hope that it's raining.

In January, Mrs. Warren had buckets but no rain. The driest day has reached its 20th anniversary as a candidate for 2020, when it processed 202 donations worth a total of $ 5,548, a more appropriate sum for a congressional candidate than any other candidate. an optimistic candidate for the White House. That evening, actress Kate McKinnon compared Warren's candidacy to "Saturday Night Live" at a doctor offering a prostate examination. "Bend down, America," says the actress, and lets Mama Warren get to work. "

A few days after the "SNL" segment, Ms. Warren rolled out her tax plan for the wealthy. Donations have increased. They did it again when she proposed universal custody in February. And break the big tech in March.

His campaign describes his decision, taken in late February, to abandon traditional fundraising with wealthy donors as a particularly crucial bet that is paying off. She regularly boasts of the way she calls small donors instead of big consolidators who collect $ 2,800 worth of checks.

What made Warren's campaign unique was her ability to turn financial support into political statements and political statements. In other words, they made rain. Caitlin Mitchell, who oversees Warren's fundraiser as a mobilization leader, said donors were reacting "when Elizabeth takes a strong, moral stance."

But her first major inflection point came from television, when she presented her agenda at a CNN city hall in March that drew nearly 1.1 million viewers. In the 30 days before her appearance, she had received an average of 1,600 donations a day; in the next 30 days, it more than doubled to 3,800.

All of Warren's worst fundraising days, except one, took place prior to this city hall, including more than a dozen after the disallowance of her big-budget events.

No announcement seemed to please as much at the grassroots as his April 19 call to the Congressional impeachment proceedings against President Trump.

"I want to make sure you know where I am," she wrote to her supporters. The e-mail did not include a donation button. This did not matter. Donations still came. Contributions per day jumped 50% in the next 30 days, compared to the previous month.

For Ms. Warren, the impeachment call was closely monitored by her second CNN public meeting, her plan to cancel most student debts, and then through Mr. Biden's entry – a a week that has moved its fundraising to a new plateau. As the first debate approached in June, she was earning an average of $ 195,000 a day – without organizing any fundraising.

Prior to April 19, Ms. Warren had spent 68 different days, raising less than $ 50,000.

After? Zero.

March 19th

The day Bernie Sanders had everyone to continue giving

The third Tuesday in March was a quiet day for Mr. Sanders. He did not hold any public events. His campaign did not send mass emails asking for money. It still received nearly 33,000 contributions worth over $ 475,000.

The 19th of the month is always a good day for Mr. Sanders.

When he entered the 2020 race on February 19th, many supporters signed up to make automatic monthly contributions. Since then, he has processed at least 40,000 combined gifts on the 19th and 20th of each month.

For the prospect, this exceeds the number of donations that six rivals who participated in the debates collected in total until June.

Mr. Sanders' fundraising is one of constant, as if a plant filled with donors was constantly giving small donations. Since his statement, Mr. Sanders has had 54 days in which he has received over 10,000 donations. Mr. Biden had five days of this type. "Steady as we go," said Faiz Shakir, Sanders campaign manager.

The most powerful motivator for Sanders supporters – beyond those who signed up to give automatically, again and again – was often simply the calendar. After a decade of breathtaking and time-focused money demands, Democratic donors are ready to give in the end months and quarters. Mr. Sanders' supporters responded with a roller coaster ride: 81,500 donations were received on the last day of the first quarter and 81,000 donations at the end of the second quarter.

The devotees of Mr. Sanders also love things. Stickers are selling like crazy. On June 7, Mr. Sanders e-mailed his supporters with a question, "Where can I send you a copy of my new book?" The special agreement was to "donate ALL", as indicated by email, and get a copy of "Where We Go From Here." That day, he raised nearly $ 400,000, triple what he had collected.

"Unlike many other applicants, Bernie's support to small donors is consistent, sustainable and growing," said Tim Tagaris, senior advisor at Sanders and senior digital campaign manager.

The Sanders campaign said its recurring donations were worth nearly $ 1.2 million a month. These only contributions in the second quarter exceeded the quarterly total of more than half of the transactions.

April 25

The day Joseph R. Biden Jr. entered the race

His advisers were anxious and arrived early at Washington's improvised headquarters. They just did not know what kind of answer to expect. As a candidate for the vice presidency of President Obama, Biden had access to the old email list of Obama campaigns. Would these people give Mr. Biden alone?

A few hours after Mr. Biden's announcement on April 25, at 6:00 am, funds poured in.

He received 65,000 donations in 12 hours, which earned him $ 6.3 million in the first 24 hours – the largest of all the 2020 candidates. When Biden released his first full report in July , this one seemed solid: 22 million dollars were raised, second in the second quarter, in less time than its rivals.

But day-to-day data shows potential warning signs.

His five best fundraising days were all in his first week. More worryingly perhaps still, he was the only leading candidate in the 2020 field to report having collected less money in June than May, and he ranked fifth in the currency race of June.

The numbers show how Biden, who had a shorter public schedule than most competitors and had not set up televised city halls, was generally struggling to generate new waves of donations, even though he had a higher database. No day in May or June, it has exceeded 10,000 donations; its launch rally day was close to 8,000.

One of his few noticeable bumps, beyond recurring donations, came when he and Mr. Trump campaigned in Iowa the same day in June, giving voters a glimpse of a potential clash at home. general elections. Another peak occurred on May 10 when Mr. Biden sent an email to supporters with the "sorry" subject line (he apologized for having to ask for money .)

TJ Ducklo, a spokesman for Biden, said more than two-thirds of the campaign's online donors were not on the initial list of supporters and that a "widespread and enthusiastic support from Vice President Biden had resulted in a major fundraising operation ".

Shakir, the Sanders Campaigner, said Biden's numbers were "rather uninspiring". "His case of defeating Donald Trump with a grassroots movement is not strong," he said of Biden.

The argument in favor of the Sanders campaign to frame the race between him and Mr Biden is certainly clear. April 25 was one of the best days of the year for Mr. Sanders. He collected nearly $ 740,000 out of 30,000 contributions after sending his followers a two-word subject line: "Joe Biden".

March 10

Pete Buttigieg's star day, turn on CNN

Last January, Anthony Mercurio, who runs Buttigieg's fundraising operation, set up alerts that resounded with each new donation. It was more than manageable. After all, Mr. Buttigieg was the virtually unknown Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and began exploring a list of emails of only 24,000.

Mr. Buttigieg's first break took place on Valentine's Day, when he appeared in "The Late Show with Stephen Colbert", under his signature, his white shirt sleeves and blue tie, embodying a new generation of leaders. Donations have grown from less than 100 contributions per day to more than 1,600.

On March 10, when Mr. Buttigieg's CNN town hall arrived, Mr. Mercurio's phone exploded with "so many ActBlue notifications." He extinguished them that night.

In the 10 days leading up to the plenary, Mr. Buttigieg processed 8,900 contributions. the next 10 days he had 80,000.

Of the 113 days that followed City Hall until June 30, Mr. Buttigieg raised at least $ 100,000 from all of them, with the exception of seven. When Mr. Buttigieg officially announced his campaign in mid-April, he raised $ 4.2 million over four days, more than Mrs. Harris's four-day debate bonus.

Like Ms. Warren, Mr. Buttigieg's takeoff was to capitalize not on a moment, but on a series of them. As the momentum of his performance on CNN faded about a week later, a Twitter post about how Mr Buttigieg spoke Norwegian became viral. Donations increased from 3,000 yesterday to 7,000 the day before. The next day he was on MSNBC for a segment that host Joe Scarborough said got the most overwhelming answer he would never have seen – other than for Mr. Obama. Donations exceeded 8,000 people that day.

Soon, a survey conducted in Iowa showed that he was in third place and 11%.

Of course, money alone does not win the presidential primaries. Still, the view on the race revealed by the data – all the money from the campaigns, with the exception of purchases in online stores and offline donations of less than $ 200 – shows just how much small donations play a crucial role. They are a proxy for enthusiasm. And candidates must have at least 130,000 unique contributors to participate in future stages of the debate.

Andrew Yang, the former technical leader proposing that the government give $ 1,000 per month to every American adult, will participate in the September debate. He beat senators, governors and the mayor of America's largest city for a place.

Mr. Yang could be an asterisk from 2020 when he had not had a February interview with Joe Rogan, popular podcast host, comedian and MMA commentator. The interview has 3.6 million views on YouTube.

In the 30 days preceding the interview, Mr. Yang received an average of 62 donations a day. in the next 30 days it was about 2,150.