The advantage of Biden is not necessarily a big advantage



[ad_1]

As vice-president and senator for 36 years, Joe Biden heads his major Democratic rivals in 2020, after receiving endorsement from other officials. But less than six months after the first votes of the nomination contest, in Iowa caucuses, it's unclear to what extent the annotations will help.

Fivethirtyeight.com's endorsement of endorsements shows that Biden leads his main Democratic opponents with a score of 110 points in the Political Endorsement Contest, based on the number and quality of endorsements of current and former party leaders. The system weighs the endorsements by those who offer them, with vouchers for the purchase of former presidents, vice presidents and national party leaders with a maximum value of 10 points, at 1 point for the lower member of the DNC committee.

The list of Biden endorsements includes a prominent name, Senator Dianne Feinstein. The California Democrat chose Biden rather than her Senate colleague, Kamala Harris.

But Harris is not left behind in the arena of endorsements. It records a score of 89. Harris has recruited not only a large number of party leaders from his own state, apart from Feinstein, but has also garnered senior officials such as Florida, Texas, Washington, DC Ohio, Illinois and Michigan.

How much, if any, such endorsements are an open question. For many voters, it seems like one politician is crushing another. And most voters are happy to decide for themselves who to support the president.

Then there is the example of the current President, Donald Trump, who got the 2016 Republican Presidential Inauguration with negligible support during the first primaries of personalities appointing the GOP such as Senators, Governors and senior party officials.

"If we were in 2015 and we were looking at Republican endorsements, and if we thought that was the most important thing, we would look at [former Florida Gov.] Jeremy Mayer, an associate professor at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, reportedly said, "Well, he would have said," Well, he'll put an end to this case. " Trump received very early very few important mentions – his first major Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama was approved.

Historically, only a few endorsements are really distinguished by their power and ability to move primary votes. In January 2008, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, grappling with a bitter primary battle against Senator Hillary Clinton of New York, won the endorsement of the Democratic Party's kingship: the Kennedy Clan. Or at least its most prominent members. While some members of the Kennedy family continued to support Clinton, Obama gained public support from Senator Edward M. Kennedy, his then representative son. Patrick Kennedy, of Rhode Island, and his daughter in the presidency, Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg. Obama then claimed the Democratic nomination by beating Clinton for the very large number of delegates, reinforced by party insiders in favor of the family of the late President John F. Kennedy.

Four years earlier, President George W. Bush had taken up the defense of Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania, who was facing a Republican main challenge from the right representative of the time. Pat Toomey. Bush, criticized at the time by Democrats as an extremist right-wing extremist, sided with the moderate Republican president over his conservative rival. During the election campaign, the Bush White House, in addition to the President himself, tasked Vice President Dick Cheney and President Karl Rove's senior political advisor to campaign for Specter.

The incumbent ended up winning a narrow primary victory from 50.8 to 49.2.

And some political science literature suggests that endorsements matter enough, Meyer said. Washington Examiner. He cited the "party decides" theory, where endorsements are the key.

"Party leaders manage to reduce these candidates before voters are attacked," Mayer said.

In the 2020 race, many of Biden's commands come from members of Congress with whom he was previously, including former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle. The former senator from South Dakota, who led his party in the Senate from 1995 to 2005, quickly endorsed Obama in 2008.

"People who were used to playing politics have varying power as an endorser," said Mayer.You know, I'm looking at Tom Daschle and Tom Daschle was a big deal for Barack Obama of 39, get his endorsement in 2008. Is he still like a big name now that he supports Joe Biden? I'm not so sure. It's been a long time since he's not near the levers power. "

[ad_2]

Source link