The British economy rebounds in the first quarter



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Legend of the mediaHammond: The economy is robust

The UK economy rebounded in the first three months of the year after Brexit inventories helped boost growth.

Growth was 0.5% in the quarter, up from 0.2% in the previous three months, the Office of National Statistics said.

The manufacturing sector has experienced the strongest growth since 1988 during this period.

The NSO stated that the builders were eager to deliver their orders before the Brexit deadline of March 29th.

Pharmaceuticals were one of the most affected sectors, with growth of 9.4% between January and March.

Earlier business surveys had shown that manufacturers stocked Brexit products in case the UK leaves the EU without a transition agreement, which they say could lead to delays at the UK's borders. United.

What impact did Brexit have on the numbers?

In addition to the fact that manufacturers were rushing to deliver their orders before the UK left the European Union, companies were also stocking parts.

This led to a surge in imports, the total trade deficit – the gap between imports and exports from the UK – having doubled in the first quarter to a record level, revealed separate data from the United States. NSO.

The total trade deficit widened from 8.9 to 18.3 billion pounds, partly because of a sharp increase in car and gold imports.

However, the UK's deadline to exit the EU was postponed until the end of October, after Prime Minister Theresa May asked the EU to have more time to negotiate an agreement.

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Is the economy stabilizing?

Chancellor Philip Hammond said the figures showed that the economy remained "robust".

"These morning GDP figures again show that the UK economy is doing well, despite signs of slowing global growth and lingering uncertainty about Brexit at home – so it is good news, "he told the BBC.

Analysts warned, however, that the impact of Brexit could mean that the recovery of growth is short-lived.

Tej Parikh, chief economist of the corporate lobby group of the Institute of Administrators, said that this could well be "a flash."

"Some companies have made progress early in the year in anticipation of their departure from the European Union, and larger inventories and previous orders have artificially increased growth figures.

"In the second quarter, many companies will want to empty their Brexit caches, which will slow down economic growth," he said.

However, Ruth Gregory, a British economist at Capital Economics, said the figures gave some "encouraging signs of underlying growth".

She said the growth in household consumption was "solid" and stressed that business investment had increased "for the first time in four quarters".

What do the trade figures tell us about the economy?

There is something optimistic in the numbers today and something negative, probably with the same cause.

In spite of all this political turmoil, the economy has progressed better than it has done for a long time. At 1.8% for the year, it is almost at the same level as before the financial crisis, when growth of 2 to 3% per year was normal.

The numbers can be used to confirm predictions that "stockpiling" would boost economic growth – companies spending more than usual to build up their supplies, just in case an uncompromising Brexit would mean a seizure cross-border exchanges.

Manufacturing has seen a revival of activity and more cars have been imported than usual. You can not stick to these numbers, but it can also be due to storage: a "buy-now-while-stocks-last" effect in case the pound goes down (making imported cars more expensive) and tariffs would be applied (idem).

But here is the downer. Partly because of rising imports, the trade deficit doubled from £ 8.9 to £ 18.3 billion. Since we are recording a surplus of services and exporting more than we import, it seems even worse when you remove services.

The goods trade deficit in the first quarter widened to a record high: £ 43.3 billion, including non-monetary gold, which rose by £ 6 billion.

We know many economic studies: people buy gold when they are worried. It seems that in the first quarter of the year, economic growth has been stimulated – out of anxiety. It's small, but you could call it a mini "worry boom".

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