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The Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers each started Week 4 with a first-place share in their divisions and rising expectations for their seasons. Unbeaten, both teams had started the season with a streak of dominant defensive performance, and by the end of Week 3, each was ranked among the top three teams in the league in points allowed per game, yards allowed per game and defensive points. expected added per game. In a surprising twist given the history of each team’s starting quarterbacks, infractions were not far behind. Fellow QB Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Darnold started Week 4 playing the best ball of their careers, Bridegwater placed fourth in the league in QBR before the Denver home game against the Baltimore Ravens and Darnold went placed sixth before the Carolina road game against the Dallas Cowboys. Yet despite their dominance at the start of the season, both teams came out of the weekend limping with their first losses of the season.
September’s dominance is usually a good sign – teams that are 3-0 have reached the playoffs 75 percent of the time – especially if the win comes against good teams. But that wasn’t the case for Denver and Carolina, and this is our first clue as to what went wrong for them in week 4.
Each team’s defensive performance was bolstered by an easy schedule against some of the worst teams in the league. Prior to Week 4, the average offensive per game EPA of Carolina’s top three opponents (the Houston Texans, New Orleans Saints, and New York Jets) was -0.05, and the offensive per game EPA for Carolina’s. Denver’s top three opponents (the New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets) was only -0.09.
Considering the softness of the schedule at the start, it probably shouldn’t have been so surprising that each team struggled in their toughest test of the young season. The Broncos’ struggles came in the form of a 23-7 loss to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens that saw Denver rack up injuries. Denver’s previously strong defense allowed 316 passing yards, Jackson’s second career regular-season total, on 37 attempts for a robust 8.5-yard average. And as bad as the defense was, the offense was worse. Before coming out with a concussion at the end of the first half, Bridgewater completed less than half of his passes and amassed a QBR total of 9.7. His replacement, Drew Lock, did not do better, posting a total QBR of 6.6 against a Ravens defense that ranked 27th in yards against per game and 26th in points against per game.
In Dallas, the Cowboys beat the Panthers, dismantling the Carolina defense en route to a 38-26 victory. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott threw four touchdowns in just 22 passing attempts, and Ezekiel Elliott ran 20 times for 143 yards (an incredible 7.2 yards per carry) and rushed for a touchdown. On offense, Darnold performed well in the first half – including rushing for two touchdowns – but he was intercepted twice in the second half on back-to-back possessions by Trevon Diggs, who only became the fourth. player since 1990 with one interception in each of his team’s first four games. Down passes were also a concern: About two-thirds of Darnold’s 301 yards came on yards after the catch, and according to ESPN Stats & Information pass cards, he only made one pass on 10 throws 15 yards or more down the field.
The outlook for each team is not great. After their losses, our Elo model predicts the Broncos to be 10-7 and the Panthers to finish 9-8, just over 0.500. The model gives everyone a 16% chance of winning their division, and qualifying for the playoffs is currently a draw for both teams.
For Denver, who plays in the tough AFC West, his fate largely depends on the Kansas City Chiefs 2-2 and the Los Angeles Chargers 3-1. The Chargers are the current favorites to win the division (38%), and the Chiefs and Chargers both have about a 75% chance of making the playoffs. With the Las Vegas Raiders 3-1 also in the race (48% chance of qualifying for the playoffs), it’s possible that all three AFC wildcard teams are coming from the West. The key for Denver will be to get Bridgewater and the other injured Broncos back to good health and get back on the pitch.
The Panthers are unlucky enough to play in the same division as Tom Brady and reigning Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs are the NFC favorites to return to the Super Bowl and are almost as likely to repeat (13%) as Carolina are to win the division. Still, compared to the Broncos, the Panthers face a slightly easier road. They’ve beaten their division rivals in New Orleans once before, and the Atlanta 1-3 Falcons aren’t fighting much this year under new head coach Arthur Smith. The loss to Dallas may have proven that Carolina can’t rely on their defense in big games, but with Darnold’s newly discovered rushing ability, they can perhaps count on him to carry them across the line. arrival.
Discover our latest NFL Predictions.
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