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By Chuck Todd and Carrie Dann
WASHINGTON – Six months ago, conventional wisdom about the 2020 emerging race was:
- It would be a race on the left.
- Joe Biden could be a bust (or might not even run).
- Kamala Harris and Beto O'Rourke were two of the big favorites who could finally win the nomination.
So how does this conventional wisdom work?
And even if it's still early, the biggest story of the Dem 2020 race so far is undoubtedly the magnitude and density of the crowds that reign in the center of the party.
Biden has a significant lead in the polls; another relative center candidate, Steve Bullock, is now in the race (more on him below); and the health trend has been to separate from Bernie Sanders in health – rather than embrace it completely.
Of course, the mid-term sessions of 2018 should have taught us that the party's pragmatic center is a force to be reckoned with.
For each Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez and Rashida Tlaib, there was an Abigail Spanberger, an Elissa Slotkin, a Cindy Axne, a Colin Allred and even a Donna Shalala representing the party's pragmatic / Obama center.
This does not mean that the left can not win the Dem nomination. that could certainly.
And, as we have discovered, the misconceptions are likely to change again in six months – perhaps good news for Bernie, Beto and Kamala.
But if anything has remained constant over the last six months, it's the strength of the center of the Democratic Party.
Chaos reigns
It can be argued that chaos was the main feature of President Trump's first two and a half years in office.
And check out these titles in the last 24 hours:
- Dow ends the day down 618 points after a dramatic day of defeats
- White House reviews military plans against Iran in Echoes of Iraq War
- Barr asks a US lawyer to check how the investigation on Russia began
- Before Trump's treatment at DHS, senior officials have challenged plans for massive family arrests
As for the lawyer that Barr has chosen to head this new investigation on Russia, John Durham, he has a habit of dealing with tricky issues.
"Attorney General Janet Reno asked Mr. Durham in 1999 to investigate the treatment of notorious journalist: organized crime leader James (Whitey) Bulger," writes the New York Times.
"In 2008, Attorney General Michael B. Mukasey instructed Durham to investigate the destruction of video tapes by the IAC in 2005, showing the torture of suspected terrorists."
"One year later, Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. extended Mr. Durham's mandate to also consider whether the agency had broken any law with respect to the mistreatment of detainees in his custody. . "
Beto's revival: "I know I can do a better job"
In recent days (here and here) we've talked about resets and reminders for Kamala Harris and Beto O'Rourke.
And here is O'Rourke who told MSNBC's Rachel Maddow last night that he could do a better job speaking to a national audience.
"It has been eight weeks now that we are on the road, traveling more than 15 states and organizing more than 150 public meetings, operating today in the same way we started. But I recognize that I can do a better job by also addressing a national audience, beyond the town halls. "
O'Rourke also discussed what distinguishes his bid for 2020 – as well as his campaign for the 2018 Senate – from the rest of the Dem field.
"No matter the color blue, we will not take you for granted. No matter the size, the color red, the rurality, we will not miss you. Everyone is important. Everyone matters. "
Tweet of the day
Vision 2020: Bullock in
In a video released this morning, Montana Governor Steve Bullock became the last Democrat to announce a presidential bid.
He talks about life – and victory – in a red state: "As a Democratic governor of a state that Trump won by 20 points, I do not have the luxury of talking to people who are in agreement with me. "
He also insists on the reform of campaign financing. "We must defeat Donald Trump in 2020 and defeat the corrupt system that allows campaign money to scramble the voices, so that we can finally deliver on the promise of just one shot for everyone."
Alex Seitz-Wald, of NBC, said, "The Bullock case is that he has won Montana twice, including his re-election in 2016, the same night as Donald Trump. He did so while remaining true to fundamental democratic values in all areas, from abortion to climate change, to firearms. "
Bullock launches his campaign from his high school alma mater in Helena, Montana at 3:30 pm ET and travels to Iowa Thursday, Friday and Saturday.
In the countryside today
In addition to the launch of Bullock in Montana, Joe Biden stays in New Hampshire … And Beto O'Rourke raises funds in Houston.
Data Download: The number of the day is … 617.38
617.38.
It was the fall of the Dow Jones industrial average yesterday, as the trade war between the United States and China intensified with new retaliatory tariffs.
The 2.4% drop was the worst on the market since January 3rd.
In addition, our CNBC colleagues said: "The US Caterpillar business fell 4.6%, while Apple lost 5.8%." Boeing shares fell 4.9%, speculation that China could designate the aircraft manufacturer during the trade war.
"The utilities and real estate sectors, considered by investors as defensive spaces in the market, were the only ones in the S & P 500 to close higher on Monday."
The lid: walk (like an Egyptian)
Do not miss Monday's module when we looked back at Kamala Harris's private health insurance.
ICYMI: News not to be missed
Jimmy Carter is recovering from a broken hip.
Farmers are shocked by the latest consequences of the trade war.
Kirstjen Nielsen was ousted after opposing a plan to arrest a large number of migrant families, the Washington Post reported.
The White House is currently reviewing plans for military action in Iran.
Bill Barr has appointed a US lawyer to probe the origins of the investigation into Russia.
Geoff Bennett and Heidi Przybyla are the latest to comment on how Donald Trump and Democrats see abortion as a topical issue by 2020, noting: The President has taken a series of recent steps aimed at to turn abortion into a rallying cry for conservatives – from painting to abortion – the rights bills in New York and Virginia as extreme; to extend the Mexico City policy (an existing rule prohibiting US aid to any health organization in another country that provides or makes recommendations for abortions); at the projection of the anti-abortion film Gosnell at the White House.
Other news that are there …
Trump Diary: The Player
Jonathan Allen explains why Trump takes such a big bet with China.
Trump now says that he will not use any hardware hacked or stolen by a foreign opponent against a 2020 enemy.
Rod Rosenstein called James Comey "pundit partisan".
Mike Pompeo meets Putin today.
Trump will hold a rally in northeastern Pennsylvania next week before the special election to replace Tom Marino.
2020: Castro's education plan
Julian Castro has a new education plan.
What exactly happened with Bill Blasio's Trump Tower press conference?
POLITICO writes on a key approval for 2020: AOC.
The Washington Post has the latest news on what could be next for Liz Cheney.
The New York Times examines how the Democrats who overturned their seats in 2018 plan to keep their jobs.
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