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BWith all the measures available, President Trump should be re-elected. Over the last 38 years, a single presidential president has failed to take over the White House and Trump may have been historically unpopular, but despite media coverage, he does not do it very much.
At this point in their presidency, Barack Obama, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan received approval ratings of 48, 63.8, 49.4 and 41.1 percent, respectively. Trump currently has an approval rate of 42%, a figure that only deviated about one percentage point last year.
Still, is not it still like Trump is going to lose? Even with one of the best labor markets for a century and a relative internal stability, no other president has publicly blasted on Twitter dead war heroes and the wife of his subordinate. Unlike any other administration, the chaos of the Trump era is constant.
Exactly. It is constant. Despite the claims of the left, none of this is normal, more and more, and statistical models show it.
POLITICO reports that, out of 12 economic models predicting the outcome of the 2020 elections, Moody's chief economist & Analytics, Mark Zandi, found that Trump was winning them all.
"If the elections were held today, Trump would win according to the models and rather easily," Zandi said. "In three or four of them, it would be pretty close.It has low gas prices, a low unemployment rate and a lot of other political variables behind it." The only exception is its popularity, which counts a lot, if it falls off a cliff it would make a big difference. "
Democrats who believe that the chaos and polarity of the Trump administration have yet to be put on the cake must wake up and face the reality that 2020 will be a tough battle.
Trump, like Hillary Clinton, was particularly permanent in public consciousness. In 2016, the electorate already had a hard impression for at least a decade. While this certainly detracts from Trump's ability to broaden its appeal, this gives its popularity index an integrated floor. It would take something really shocking – say the discovery of tangible evidence that Trump committed a violent crime or a recording of him using the word -N – to shake his base. Despite Ann Coulter's lamentations, voters have more loyalty to Trump than to a wall.
The public expects Trump's little Twitter and tasteless sycophannie to be the worst dictators on the planet Earth. The overwhelming majority of the country may not like it personally, but you do not change horses along the way, and even though this race has more bells and whistles than ever before, speed does not pick up. It's chaos, constantly.
None of this even mentions the question of the appointment of Democrats. Of course, Trump would surely face a tough battle against someone like former vice president Joe Biden, who appeals in a cross-cutting manner and who enjoys much of the public trust, but he is it is very likely that the Democrats will nominate a candidate who wishes to abolish private health care. The federal job guarantee, the ban on all assault rifles, the legalization of abortion in the third quarter and the taxation of everything from your property to your fortune. In this case, will the pivot center of the country vote for the democrat who wants to bring the country back to Venezuela, or vote for the devil you know, accepting terrible tweets and pathetic public demonstrations? in exchange for relatives? Domestic tranquility and the government stay out of your life?
Voters in 2016 proved that they were willing to accept a president who openly disregarded political standards and social graces. Democrats have played too much and accused Trump not only of rude behavior, but also of criminal activity. If the Mueller report turns out to be a failure, it is hard to imagine an economic scenario that allows Democrats to easily find the White House.
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