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New census data show Chicago area lost population for the fourth year in a row, continuing trend of decline that could threaten future federal funding, economic prosperity and political representation of those left behind .
The Chicago metropolitan area lost 22,068 residents between 2017 and 2018, according to US Census Bureau data released Thursday. While New York and Los Angeles also declined, the Chicago area experienced larger declines in total numbers and percent change; the region lost 0.23% of its population, more than double of 0.10% in New York.
According to the census definition, the Chicago metropolitan area extends from Cook County to its suburbs and includes parts of southeastern Wisconsin and northwestern Indiana. According to the latest estimates, despite the decline of its population, it still has about 9.5 million inhabitants.
Cook County, which includes the City of Chicago, saw its population decline for the fourth year in a row, with an estimated loss of 24,009 residents, or 0.46% from the previous year. While Cook is still the second most populous county in the United States, after Los Angeles County, it has been on a downward trend since the early 2000s, when its population declined by 144,220 for seven years. consecutive years before starting to increase again.
At the time, the counties – DuPage, Lake, McHenry, Kane and Will – were adding hundreds of thousands of people as Cook's population dwindled. But this is no longer the case, show the data. Population growth in the passes has slowed considerably and the total population of the five counties has actually decreased from 2017 to 2018.
Over the past eight years, county counties have increased by 38,273 people. Over an equivalent period ending in 2007 – just before the Great Recession – this gain was more than 11 times larger, with 428,954 more inhabitants living in these counties.
There have been pockets of growth in the region over the last year; Kendall, Kane, Will and McHenry counties all posted modest gains. But DuPage and Lake counties each lost their residents for the third year in a row, totaling 9,539 people between the two counties during this period.
Data released on Thursday includes population counts by county and metropolitan area only. Data by state was released in December and showed that the population of Illinois was declining for the fifth year in a row, losing about 45,000 residents from 2017 to 2018.
While reporting on the problems of the Illinois population has focused on residents moving away, census counts also reflect "natural" gains or losses – births / deaths – and the number of people who arrive other counties, states or nations. For the Chicago area, declining birth rates and stagnant international migration have added to the impact of residents who have moved elsewhere in recent years.
Census counts on migration are expressed only in terms of net gain or loss. The net migration of Cook County has been negative for at least 27 years, which means that more people have been displaced than displaced in the region. According to the most recent data, the current rate of net migration loss is 8.6 per 1,000 population, although the lowest point in the county was reached in 2005, with about 13 more than the number has passed.
In the counties of passes, meanwhile, there are more people than every year since 2011, reversing the previous trend.
The census figures do not explain the many reasons people can leave the Chicago area – some may have followed their employers or graduated – but during interviews with the Tribune, the former residents who chose to leave gave many reasons. including high taxes, government corruption, crime rates, economic instability, long journeys, a general rise in the cost of living, and weather conditions.
Michael Gillam and Mary Green, both from Ohio, loved the Chicago skyline, lake shores and restaurants while living in the Ravenswood neighborhood in 2015 and 2016, then lived a more suburban life in Naperville , in DuPage County.
Yet, when the time has come to take root, the couple moved to Houston in February 2018, looking for more affordable housing and a cleaner climate in one of the fastest growing regions. from the country.
"We just wanted to go somewhere where our money would go further," said Gillam, 29, a software developer. "The real estate market is fantastic here, it is exploding. In Illinois, it seems like people are leaving.
Gillam and Green, a 33-year-old licensed practical nurse, said they were worried about crime in the city as well as instability within the Illinois government, particularly after experiencing a two-year budget stalemate that ended in 2017. buy a home and feared that real estate in a declining population would be a bad investment and difficult to sell later.
Although they are coming back to Chicago for their wedding in the summer of 2021, they do not plan to do it permanently.
"No regrets at all," said Gillam. "We have never looked back."
Not just migration
The flight to other states is a factor in the decline of the region's population, but not the only one.
Some experts have noted that the metropolitan area does not attract enough newcomers to compensate for departing people. Immigration from other countries has also long contributed to limiting population losses, but in recent years this influx has been less sustained, according to census estimates. Meanwhile, birth rates are slowing down at the state level, which means that there are fewer new residents to make up for other losses.
Take Cook County as an example. Between 2017 and 2018, there were more births (63,850) than deaths (43,455), according to the census, which created what is called a "natural increase". During the same period, Cook recorded a net increase of 18,796 people from other countries. . (The census includes US troops and civilians returning to the United States in this count.)
But these two combined gains could not offset the net loss of 63,339 on internal migration. All of these factors contribute to the total loss of more than 24,000 people in the county.
The situation is different in Kane County, in the western suburbs, because thousands of babies contribute to population growth. An estimated 6,516 births were recorded in Kane during the last year, which is sufficient to offset a net migration loss of 2,011 people and 3,446 deaths.
Kane has recorded the region's highest natural growth rate from 2017 to 2018 – adding about 6 people per 1,000 population, when births and deaths are combined. Although Kane's birth rate has declined over the years, like the rest of the state, it remains the highest among the counties in the suburbs of northeastern Illinois, with 12.2 births per 1,000 inhabitants.
Tara Burghart, a city council member from the western suburbs of Geneva, ran the "Go West Young Mom" blog, a hyperlocal site for parents in Kane County.
Burghart believes that the county tends to attract young families with large schools, libraries, burgeoning parks districts and more affordable housing compared to other parts of the region.
"And people might feel that they have more physical space, even economic, to have one more child," she said.
Amanda Pauli, a Geneva resident, agreed that it was a great place to raise children – but that's not enough to keep her around. Her family plans to settle in Michigan in June, near the city where she grew up and close relatives.
Pauli said they currently pay about $ 1,000 per month in property taxes, compared with $ 450 a month they expect to pay in Michigan. They will also live on a lake in a wooded area, with more opportunities for biking, hiking and skiing.
"The two most important things are family and the cost of living," said Pauli, a stay-at-home mom of two school-aged children. "And the outdoors is one of them. We really miss it.
His family will join one of the sides of the calculation of net migration, those who leave. But some experts believe that the focus should also be on attracting new people to the area.
"We do not have a particularly high rate of outgoing emigration, but very few people come here compared to our population, compared to the rest of the country," said Daniel Kay Hertz, research director at the Center. for Tax and Budget. Responsibility.
With the help of figures from the 2015 US survey conducted by the US Census, his agency revealed that Illinois was in the middle of the pack at the national level with respect to the rate of people leaving this state, but ranked third in terms of the number of people entering the state. .
The potential reasons that people do not move into Illinois should be part of the conversation, said Hertz.
"State stories are important and can influence people's decisions," said Hertz. "And those in Illinois are really, really, really negative in a way that, in my opinion, overestimates some issues compared to other places."
Jody Cameron, 44, who came to Dallas from Dallas in November 2016 for a position in the Radiology Administration, said he was delighted to have made that decision.
He found that the cost of living in Texas was much lower (no income taxes and less parking fees because of free space), but he saw his salary increase by 50% because his training was no longer required here.
He enjoys Chicago's diversity, restaurants, cultural opportunities and sporting events. He feels no less safe than when he lived in Dallas. When posting snow pictures on social media, Texas friends say they are jealous. There is no shortage of hot summer.
"The people here are like, why would you move here?" Said Cameron, who lives in the Logan Square neighborhood. "Because people tend to think that the grass is greener elsewhere. My point is, there are advantages and disadvantages of each place. "
Consequences of change
The loss of population in the Chicago area is part of a more general decline in Illinois, which has lost its position as the country's fifth-largest state relative to Pennsylvania in 2017.
Of the 102 counties in Illinois, only 16 have experienced population growth from 2017 to 2018, and only 11 have seen net gains so far this decade, said Brian Harger, Research Associate at the Center. for Governmental Studies at Northern Illinois University.
After several decades of modest growth, the state's population began to decline after 2013, with a net loss of more than 138,000 people since then, he said. Growth in the Chicago area and some poor neighborhoods was enough to offset losses elsewhere, but this has not been the case in recent years, he said.
"Even the Chicago area has not done very well," said Harger. "There were only a few counties on the outskirts that gained from the population and their earnings were quite modest."
Downtown metropolitan areas – counties surrounding an urban core of at least 50,000, such as Moline in the Quad Cities, Peoria and Bloomington – also experience a larger net migration deficit that has transformed population in loss, according to census data.
From 2001 to 2007, metropolitan areas in the downtown area added 144,089 residents, mainly due to migration gains. But over the past seven years, these regions have lost a third of this gain, or about 43,000 people.
As for rural counties in the state, they have been losing population since 1997, as the number of resident deaths is higher than the number of births and the number of people moving does not occur.
While many experts lament population declines, Chicago demographer Rob Paral has reviewed the latest figures from Cook County and found "no cause for joy or cause for concern." ".
Since Cook is a very large county, the number of residents lost is less than the percentage change, he said. The population of Cook County has increased for several years after 2010, said Paral. Although decreasing since 2015, the percentage decrease is minimal.
It is important to monitor population losses, he said, but he does not believe that there is a crisis in Cook County.
"There is no mass exodus," he said. "I think it's important, because for many years there was concern that the riding would simply accelerate the loss, but that's not what we see. People were using population loss here … to hang on to their favorite problem. They would say it was because of taxes, or this and that. But the numbers do not really support the idea that we have a serious problem. "
Other experts have warned that the consequences of continued population loss could be minimal.
Federal funding of at least $ 34 billion for programs that directly help the people of Illinois is linked to the imminent figures of the 2020 census, according to a recent report from the Institute of Policy George Washington University; the loss of population could mean less money to shop around. Illinois may also lose up to two congressional seats if this count once a decade reveals a sufficient decline in population, which would affect long-term political representation, according to a report by the County Commission. Illinois Complete.
The loss of population in the Chicago area is of particular concern to the region's economy, said Aseal Tineh, Deputy Policy Analyst for the Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning.
"We are talking a lot about how demographic trends and demographic changes are a condition and a consequence of economic prosperity," she said. "When we see a decline in the population, it could indicate how well the economy is providing opportunities for individuals and communities. But then the opposite is true. By losing the population, we are also losing human capital and our workforce. And it is worrying for the growth of the regional economy. So, the worry goes both ways.
Norman Walzer, senior researcher at the NIU Center for Governmental Studies, who has been studying economic development and public finance in rural areas for nearly 50 years, noted that these areas of the state are already struggling with a lack access to health care. Declining populations also weigh on the finances of local governments, Walzer said.
Population decline can tear the social fabric of the most affected communities, especially when businesses are closed and local schools are closing or amalgamating, said Kathleen Cagney, director of the Population Research Center at the University of Chicago. .
An aging population with lower growth and stagnant birth rates is weighing more heavily on the economic burden of younger, more active people, she added.
"You have to think of something called the dependency ratio," she said. "The number of people in the labor market, essentially, compared to those who need support. Because people live longer, many of them are not fully engaged in the job market. So you have a population that needs some form of assistance and fewer people to help. "
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