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If the observers agree on one thing about Thursday's meeting of the European Central Bank, it is because policy makers are announcing a series of easing measures that will not really make a difference to Europe's struggling economy.
The ECB will announce its decision at 13:45. local time (7:45 am Eastern Time), followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi at 2:30 pm Goldman Sachs economists said most of the measures would be revealed in the announcement, rather than at the Draghi press conference.
"Do not act now when the inflation outlook worsens and especially does not use the most effective instrument (EQ), it would mean a remarkable change in ambition," said Anatoli Annenkov, economist at Societe Generale, referring to the quantitative easing, which the ECB could restart by resuming the monthly purchases of bonds.
The latest data, released in August, show that inflation is one percentage point below its target of almost 2%. At the same time, the eurozone economy is in limp, with growth of 1.1% from one year to the next in the second quarter.
Related: The challenge of the ECB: push rates further into negative territory without destroying banks in the euro area
Here is an overview of what banks expect from the ECB.
| Strengthen | expectations |
| Bank of America Merrill Lynch | Reduction of the deposit rate by 20bp, prioritization, QE of 30 billion euros per month over 9 to 12 months |
| BNP Paribas | 10bp deposit rate reduction, rate prioritization, strengthening forecasts, easing of TLTRO's condition, quantitative easing of 50 billion euros per month |
| German Bank | 10bp deposit rate reduction, forecast change, QE of 30 billion euros per month for 12 months, deletion of TLbRO3 margin of 10 bps, reserve classification |
| Goldman Sachs | Deposit rate reduction by 20bp, extension of the forecast forecast, EQ from $ 200 to $ 250bn in total |
| ING | Deposit rate reduction of 20bp, exchange rate forecast, QE of 30 billion euros per month for 9 to 12 months |
| TD Bank | Deposit rate reduction of 20 basis points, QE of 40 billion euros per month, rate cap forecast until the middle of 2021 or a link between increases and leases. ;inflation |
| Nomura | Reduction of the deposit rate by 10bp, EQ by € 30bn per month until the end of 2020, change in forecasting, tiering of interest rates |
| SocGen | Reduction of the deposit rate by 20bp, QE by 40billion euros per month, tiering of rates |
| JP Morgan | 10bp rate reduction, QE of 30 billion euros per month, extension of the forward forecast |
This month, the United States
DJIA, + 0.85%
and European actions
SXXP, + 0.85%
both added about 2%. Banks of the euro zone
SX7E, -0.21%
were particularly successful last week. L & # 39; euro
EURUSD + 0.0091%
also rose against the dollar.
The yield on the bund of 10 years
TMBMKDE-10Y, -2.43%
went from -0.7% earlier in the month to -0.56%.
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