The economy is scary and the resurgence of ISIS nuance the Trump 2020 step

"Under my administration, we are fighting back and winning because we are giving priority to America," proclaimed Trump last week in a speech delivered in the state of Pennsylvania.

"After years of building foreign countries, we are finally building our country," he said.

But the president's speech can not hide that there is a sudden convergence of challenges that could jeopardize his hopes of getting four more years as commander-in-chief. They recall that presidents, despite their power and visibility, are deeply vulnerable to external events.

Their ability to mitigate the damage caused by situations over which they have little control and turn them into a call that can reassure and attract voters is often the key to their destiny.

One of the reasons why Trump is particularly at risk is that it has little margin of error by 2020. Its perpetual approval rate of around 40% on leaves it vulnerable to shocks His bold affirmations of more success than any other modern president mean that his failures more obviously contradict his political speech.

The clouds that are gathering raise questions about Trump himself and as to whether he will change course to improve his political outlook – for example, about trade wars that could harm the world. Mondial economy. They also highlight an issue that hangs over the 2020 campaign but that can only be resolved by the election itself: how will Trump be judged by the voters who shocked the class of experts there are three years?

Can Trump still confuse the odds?

Any impression that the United States and the world are out of control, in part because of the President's capricious impulses, would normally be catastrophic for a first-named White House.

However, it is also possible that Trump is different.

His model of government is based on the rotating chaos of which he is often the only one to flourish and in which he becomes an elusive opponent, able to survive and hurts normal politicians.

The Trump presidency might look like an incoherent mess and an exclusive exercise aimed at tearing apart some of America's most gaping political, social and racial scars for personal gain.

But for some of his most loyal constituents, discord and unrest, the reprimand of foreign allies and the abuse of power in Washington are exactly the reason they voted for him.

And even if the economy is deflating, Trump has probably already held enough promise – from a conservative judicial transformation to his refusal to become an indigenous in Washington – to keep his base close.

Nevertheless, if hesitant independent voters and moderate Republicans fear for their security or prosperity, perhaps of events of foreign origin, Trump's prospects could be jeopardized.

These voters may also be alienated by white nationalist rhetoric, the hot tone of immigration and the condemnation of globalization adopted by Trump.

But this approach also reinforces its almost mythic link with rural America, which played a decisive role in its rush to western Midwestern states in 2016.

So as the challenges multiply, we still do not know if they could irreversibly damage his campaign or if his unorthodox Machiavellian talent to create alternative political realities while destroying his opponents will also be powerful in 2020 that's in 2016.

Layoffs in steel reinforce fears of the economy

Almost every day brings signs that the US economy, despite its historically low unemployment and robust consumer demand, is now more exposed than ever since the Great Recession.

US Steel announced Tuesday the temporary layoff of 200 steelworkers in Michigan, due to slowing demand in Europe and the US manufacturing sector.

This decision was particularly symbolic since Trump's promises to revive US factories helped him win the Democrats' Bastion in 2016. And last week's assertion by the president that "our steel mills are on fire and boiling" is not satisfactory.

Trump said on Tuesday that the term recession was an "inappropriate" term used by the media to cause him political difficulties. But, adopting a contradictory stance, he also declared that he was considering lowering taxes and was asking the Federal Reserve to completely reduce its key rate in order to boost an economy that it has already undergone with tax reform. massive. Governments normally plan to take such measures during the darkest hours of recessions – not when the economy is as strong as today.

There are also new indications that Trump's protectionist protectionist instincts are not only damaging the economy, but could also bounce back against his political aspirations.

But despite his new claim Tuesday that China is desperately seeking an agreement, Beijing seems to be working on a clock longer than the November 2020 election.

ISIS is back

A report by the Pentagon inspector general, released Tuesday, cast doubt on confidence, arguing that despite being driven out of his "caliphate" by US and Allied attacks, the group was bursting into Iraq and Syria after the withdrawal of Trump's troops.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has offered Democrats a potential opening by admitting Tuesday that there are places where ISIS is more powerful now than it was. three or four years ago ", although the situation is" complicated ".

Some presidents could respond to such an assessment by embarking on a strategic review. But such an approach would require Trump to admit that he had sold his exploit too much for defeating ISIS – and could hurt his cause in 2020.

The boiling of tensions with Iran after Trump's nuclear pact with Obama suggests that the bill is coming to an end for a foreign policy that often seems plotted to meet its political priorities.

Trump's critics warn, however, that a departure from the United States could spoil the sacrifices of more than 3,500 US soldiers and the coalition.

A suicide bomb attack during a wedding in Kabul this weekend, which claimed the lives of 63 people and was claimed by the Islamic State, highlighted the concern that the Afghanistan could again become a haven for terrorist groups.

But this may not be very important in a national political context. America has shown in the last three presidential elections that it was tired of complications from abroad, a sentiment Trump expressed when he debated Tuesday's peace talks.

He said that Afghanistan seemed to be "Harvard University of Terrorism", but added, "We've been peacekeepers for 19 years, and it must be said that at some point enough. "