The economy is the most important thing in politics, until it is not

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How long has it lasted?

According to data from the Federal Government's Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate was at most 4%, as it currently is, from December 1965 to January 1970. It was a pivotal period of the year. History of the United States – but now, the unemployment rate is no longer known.

They were not calm years. It was at this time that Medicare became law and the civil rights movement was in full swing. They also saw most of the American victims in Vietnam. Things were so bad that Lyndon B. Johnson decided not to stand for re-election in 1968, which eventually provoked violence at that year's Democratic convention and gave Nixon the opportunity to return from his political desert.

"A good economy is not the ultimate solution of elections," political analyst Julian Zelizer of Princeton said about the 1960s and today. "It was a time when the economy was still doing very well – even in many ways today."

Today, there is no war like Vietnam, although Trump does his best to make things uncertain with his trade wars, his tweets and his complaints about the investigation being carried out by Russia. But there is a lively debate about social change and progress, especially for minorities and women.

Americans have time to focus on these efforts, perhaps because they're not looking for work.

"A good economy can create expectations for the politics of social movements," said Zelizer. "In the 1960s, the strength of the economy supported the civil rights movement, demanding that African Americans be part of the growing middle class, and producing more educated youth who were at the heart of the movement's politics. with war, ideas like fighting poverty, since the country could afford to do it. "

Fifty years later, much of the change begun in the 1960s seems unfinished, especially for Democrats who talk about economic inequality even though, according to the data on which economists are obsessed, whoever wants a job in has a and that the economy continues to grow.

The unemployment rate was 3.6% in April and annualized GDP growth was above 4% in the first quarter of the year.

Trump's argument is that things are going really well

Trump should be the beneficiary of all this good economic news. But he saw his approval ratings on the economy appear even though his overall approval ratings are less than 50%.

His chief of staff this week said that voters' feelings towards Trump mattered little, they will give him another four years in the White House, if that allows them to sit as they are now.

"You hate to look like a cliché, but are you better off than it was four years ago? It's pretty simple, right?" It's the economy, stupid. "I think it's easy," said Mick Mulvaney at the Milken conference in Los Angeles. "People will vote for someone they do not like if they think it's good for them."

And according to fairly objective criteria that will not make your eyes shine, people are sitting nicely.

Trump is in trouble despite a strong economy. Here's why.
Most people in the country have just benefited from a tax cut, even though some people in most blue states did not realize it at the time, as their tax refunds were lower. .

Satisfaction with the economy extends to the whole country if you explore the latest CNN data. Seventy-three percent of South Americans said the economy was good or rather good. This corresponded to 71% of Northeastern residents and a slightly lower percentage (69%) of Westerners and the Midwest, which includes many of the major Rust Belt states.

If the economy is to lead Trump to a second term, it will be despite divisions that he has generated in the country, said Timothy Naftali, NYU professor and former director of the Nixon Presidential Library.

"Certainly there have been times when the economy was strong, but the country is stressed because of a foreign policy challenge, as in the case of Vietnam," Naftali said. "In this case, we are not stressed by a foreign policy problem, I would say that it is the nature of the president himself, which creates stress.If Donald Trump was a unifying, I would think that the public would be a lot more behind him considering the strength of the economy ".

A time for transformation?

It is not at all clear that there is enough pressure to create change today. Democrats have seized the issue of inequality and some, especially the Meaning. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, progressive candidates for the Democratic presidential election, said the good economy was the essential reason for transforming American society.

"I have spent my entire career understanding why the promise made by the United States is good for some families, but the others who work so hard find themselves in disarray," said Warren in his video. campaign ad.

Sanders and she proposed radical reforms aimed at reshaping health care and education systems and creating a stronger safety net with the country's wealth. Trump and the Republicans already describe these ideas as socialism.
Dems & # 39; town hall was socialism on parade

To argue that the government should do more is certainly going against Republicans, who will say that the permanent corporate tax cuts are proof that giving more to businesses can help the economy.

But this may not even be an ultimate debate for Americans in 2020. Only 13% of respondents to the latest Gallup monthly survey said the economy was the biggest problem, compared with more than 80 % at certain moments of the financial crisis. As far as the economy affects the voters, it can be due to a lack of economic urgency.
Joe Biden, former vice president and current Democratic leader, took part in the race last month without mentioning the economy in his kickoff video. He wanted to focus entirely on Trump's rhetoric and white nationalists and claim that Trump was changing the moral fabric of the country.

In addition, Trump has demonstrated his innate ability to distract Americans from information that is of benefit to him, such as his concern for the investigation of Russia, his dissenting insistence on building a wall on the southern border, or the repeal of the Affordable Care Act.

These questions could ultimately be more important to voters.

"The fact is that good economic news helps an incumbent, but other issues, policies and challenges can undermine that advantage," said Zelizer. "While in 1968, it was a war in Southeast Asia, it is today a political war on the meaning of this presidency".

And sometimes, nothing explains what's going on. In November 1972, the unemployment rate exceeded 5% and had lasted more than two years. The country already knew a lot about Watergate. This did not matter. Nixon, promising to end the war that he had prolonged, won a landslide.

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